LLAW’s “ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” #483 (12/17/2023)
”End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
DEC 17, 2023
LLAW’s ISSUES & THOUGHTS TONIGHT:
Additional support from the “Bulletin of Atomic Scientists” relative to my Post last night that the agreement for increasing nuclear power by three times its present capacity by 2050 will never happen . . . ~llaw
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‘Historic’ or ‘weak’? Parsing the climate agreement from COP28
By Damian Carrington | December 13, 2023
La Collette Power Station, the main power station for Jersey, in the Channel Islands. (Photo by Travis Leery on Unsplash)
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Editor’s note: This story was originally published by The Guardian. It appears here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
The decision text from Cop28 has been greeted as “historic”, for being the first ever call by nations for a “transition away” from fossil fuels, and as “weak and ineffectual” and containing a “litany of loopholes” for the fossil fuel industry. An examination of the text helps to explain this contradiction.
Reducing fossil fuel use
The text states the huge challenge with crystal clarity:
Limiting global warming to 1.5C [above pre-industrial levels] with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. [Countries] further recognise the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.
The problem is that carbon emissions are not plunging as required – they are still rising. So the text on action is vital. The previous draft suggested measures that countries “could” take. The final agreement is somewhat stronger and “calls on” countries to do the following:
Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
This is good but, due to objections by China and India, fails to quantify the goals. That means countries could choose whatever baseline suits them, undermining the target.
Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.
This is no stronger than the text from Cop26 in 2021, which is disappointing as the dirtiest fossil fuel must unquestionably be phased out rapidly. Next in the decision text comes the pivotal paragraph:
Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.
Extraordinary as it might seem, this is the first time the root cause of the climate crisis – fossil fuels – have been cited in a decision text in nearly 30 years of UN climate talks. But “transitioning away” is weaker than “phasing out”. The latter was supported by 130 countries but fiercely opposed by petrostates. In the real world, fossil fuels are actually being phased up, with many new fields being exploited. Is “transitioning away” a strong enough signal to halt these investments? Probably not, but at least the direction of travel is finally clear.
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The ‘litany of loopholes’
Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage (CCUS), particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production.
Fossil fuel states such as Saudi Arabia pushed very hard to include CCUS, as they see it as a way to continue their lucrative business, with the emissions being trapped and buried. But the vast majority of leaders and scientists see an extremely limited role for CCUS; it is expensive, currently far from the scale required, and does not even trap all emissions. The idea that it can allow fossil fuel firms to continue anything like business as usual is a “fantasy”, says the boss of the International Energy Agency.
Subsidising the fossil fuels that drive global heating has been compared to pouring petrol on a fire: coal, oil and gas get $7tn a year in support – that is $13m a minute.
Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.
This is the first time such a call has appeared in a global UN decision, but “inefficient” is seen as a weasel word enabling nations to largely do as they please. The G20 promised the same in 2009, with no progress to date.
Another weasel word is “transitional fuels” – it is code for fossil gas.
Recognises that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.
This is the biggest win for the fossil fuel industry – it almost amounts to a poison pill in the agreement. It legitimises gas burning on the basis that it is less polluting than coal, though liquefied natural gas (LNG) may actually be even worse than coal due to methane leaks. It is worth noting that the US, the world’s biggest oil and gas producer, is planning a huge LNG expansion. The time for transitional fuels is long past; renewables are cheaper, faster and more secure.
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What’s not there
What is missing from the text is as important as what is in it, most importantly on finance. Money is needed to build out clean energy (mitigation), prepare vulnerable communities for escalating climate impacts (adaptation) and for recovery after disasters (loss and damage). The text acknowledges that trillions of dollars of investment will be needed, but fails to provide numbers on what will be provided and when. Without funding, all talk of climate action is cheap.
A global plan for adaptation, in UN-speak, was the top priority for some of the most vulnerable countries. But the text is weak and lacks specifics.
One last concern relates to ending the destruction of forests.
Results-based payments for policy approaches and positive incentives for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries.
This text raises the spectre of rich nations paying to restore or protect forests in developing nations rather than reducing their own emissions
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:
There are 5 categories (plus a bonus category at the end for news about the Yellowstone caldera and others that also play an important role in humanity’s lives) as do ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 linked most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none. The Categories are listed below in their usual appearing order:
- All Things Nuclear
- Nuclear Power
- Nuclear War
- Nuclear Power Emergencies
- Nuclear War Threats
- Yellowstone Caldera (There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus story available in tonight’s Post.)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (per above). There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus story available in this Post. If a category heading does not appear, it means there was no news reported from this category today.
(Just a reminder: When linked, the access to the media story will be underlined. If there is no link to a media story of interest you can still copy and paste the headline and lead line into your browser to find the article you are seeking. Hopefully this will never happen.)
TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS (12/17/2023) :
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
In Taiwan’s elections, nuclear energy is a major campaign issue – NPR
NPR
WU WENZHANG: (Speaking Chinese). FENG: He points out the profile of the Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant from the highway. In 2021, a referendum to restart …
In Taiwan’s elections, nuclear energy is a major campaign issue | NPR Illinois
NPR Illinois
SCOTT SIMON, HOST: Political candidates in Taiwan have debated for years whether to build more nuclear power plants. The issue has come to the …
North Korea fires a ballistic missile into the sea as South Korea and U.S. step up deterrence plans
The Portland Press Herald
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest in years, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accelerating the expansion of his nuclear and …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
In Taiwan’s elections, nuclear energy is a major campaign issue – VPM News
VPM News
SCOTT SIMON, HOST: Political candidates in Taiwan have debated for years whether to build more nuclear power plants.
Flirting with the dangers of nuclear ‘Down Under’ – Independent Australia
Independent Australia
SMRs, as Joanne Liou of the International Atomic Energy Agency International Atomic Energy Agency explains, ‘are advanced nuclear reactors that have a …
US approves a non-water-cooled nuclear reactor | NC Newsline
NC Newsline
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a construction permit for a new, non-water-cooled nuclear test reactor.
Nuclear War
NEWS
North Korea fires suspected ballistic missile, condemns U.S. for raising tensions – Reuters
Reuters
… nuclear war planning. The statement by an unnamed ministry spokesman cited the arrival of the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri in the …
US issues dire warning to North Korea on nuclear threat | The Hill
The Hill
… Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) coming together in Washington, D.C., Friday, the White House warned that “[a]ny nuclear attack by North Korea …
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile toward its eastern waters, South Korea’s military says
Stars and Stripes
… nuclear capabilities to defend its ally in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack. The North has test-fired more than 100 missiles since the …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
House Passes Ban on Russian Uranium Imports for Nuclear Power
The Presidential Prayer Team
… emergency measure that allows the Department of Energy to authorize uranium purchases from Russia if no alternative sources are available for …
Russia intensifying pressure on captured nuclear plant’s staff – intelligence – Ukrinform
Ukrinform
The Russian invasion forces are increasing pressure on Ukrainian personnel of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power … Emergencies. Agency. Information on …
Nuclear War Threats
NEW
US issues dire warning to North Korea on nuclear threat | The Hill
The Hill
US issues dire warning to North Korea on nuclear threat … The U.S. issued an intense warning to North Korea over nuclear threats Friday. In a …
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile toward its eastern waters, South Korea’s military says
Stars and Stripes
… threats, according to details announced by Seoul’s presidential office. … nuclear attack. The North has test-fired more than 100 missiles since the …
US warns nuclear attack by North Korea will result in end of Kim Jong Un`s regime | WION
YouTube
It comes in the backdrop of growing nuclear and missile threats from north Korea. … Joe Biden is a threat to democracy, says Donald Trump, warns of …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Would Arizona be Affected If Yellowstone Erupted? – EnergyPortal.eu –
EnergyPortal.eu –
The Yellowstone Caldera, often referred to as the Yellowstone Supervolcano, is a geological feature that represents a long history of volcanic events …