LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #866, Monday, (02/03/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Feb 03, 2025

LAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with the RISKS and CONSEQUENCES for TOMORROW . . .

Given the constant Russian attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the lesser Ukraine attacks on Russia’s nuclear power plants, how is it that we cannot call this ongoing war a nuclear war? It is obvious to me, at least, that nuclear power plants used for advantages in war are nuclear weapons of mass destruction, and are potentially as dangerous over immense land areas that, like nuclear bomb fallout, have no respect for any country’s boundaries.

So let’s be realistic and honest and call the Russia/Ukraine war a nuclear war. And I suspect that in future wars around the globe nuclear power plants will be favorable targets of nuclear bombs (adding to the nuclear radiation and other damage much like Annie Jacobsen’s conceivable description of such a devastating nuclear attack on the California home of PG&E’s Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant near San Luis Obispo — just 12 miles away — in her remarkable and extremely well researched book “Nuclear War – A Scenario”.

Obviously this kind of warfare can no longer be considered conventional, nor is it fiction, but undoubtedly a very real part of any future nuclear warfare. This is why I continue to say unequivocally that disarmament of nuclear weapons must include all nuclear power plants. Also know that the use of nuclear power will never solve the problem of climate change and global warming. ~llaw

Following is a relevant and more currently detailed news article of the situation in Ukraine from “War on the Rocks” by author Theresa Sabonis-Helf

War on the Rocks 1st Anniversary Note - War on the Rocks

The Electricity Front of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Theresa Sabonis-Helf

February 3, 2025

Commentary

Russia is close to achieving a decisive edge on the energy front of the Russo–Ukrainian war. Repeated attacks on key infrastructure have recently intensified, leaving Ukraine’s damaged electrical grid 70 percent reliant on three complexes of nuclear reactors. These reactors are increasingly threatened by the instability of the grid itself and could become unsafe to operate, forcing a shutdown and grid collapse. Since Ukraine has submitted to heightened oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the decision to shut down its nuclear plants if the perceived risk becomes too high may not be entirely its own.

Protecting the grid’s key substations is now the single most important priority for the survival of the Ukrainian state. By targeting electricity, Russia has made the current phase of the war an urban battle between darkness and light — and there is a clear scenario whereby darkness could triumph.

Ukrainian Demand and Supply

Temperatures in January and February in Ukraine remain well below freezing on most days. Due to the collapse of much industry, the current demand for electricity is down, though it still exceeds the remaining available supply. Winter demand is 18 gigawatts, but Ukraine is currently able to generate only 12–13 gigawatts domestically. This leads to frequent outages. Ukrainian sources report that household electricity outages in 2024 totaled nearly 2,000 hours: In November, power was down 25 percent of the time, and in December that rose to nearly 40 percent. Ukraine can make up some of the deficit by importing electricity from neighboring E.U. countries. Under existing agreements, however, Ukraine cannot import enough to meet demand. Widespread residential blackouts are frequent across the country, even when power plants and the grid are not under immediate Russian attack.

And supply seems constantly under threat: There have been over 1,000 attacks on Ukraine’s power grid since the start of the war, with Russia escalating its energy-focused attacks in 2024. A new round of bombardments in August undermined the efforts of Ukrainian authorities to restore the power supply over the summer. By September, the grid was reportedly generating only one-third of its pre-February 2022 level. Due to the repeated bombings of thermal and hydropower plants, the majority of Ukraine’s remaining electricity generation now comes from nine nuclear power plants arranged in three complexes: Rivne (four reactors), South Ukraine (three reactors), and Khmelnitsky (two reactors). Russia has been reluctant to attack these facilities directly due to the risk of releasing radioactive contaminants into the surrounding environments.

Russian Targeting of Ukraine’s Nuclear Power Plants

Russia does not need to attack the three remaining nuclear power plant complexes to collapse Ukraine’s electricity supply. The national grid is connected by 103 substations, which used to integrate electricity from several sources (e.g., nuclear, coal, gas, and hydro) but now rely mostly on nuclear power. This lack of source diversity weakens the grid, increasing the chances of cascading failure.

The substations are a vital part of the entire system. Without them, nuclear power plants can neither supply the grid nor retain the backup supply of power that is essential for reactor safety. Therefore, the loss of offsite power to a nuclear power plant is a serious problem.

To make matters worse, many of Ukraine’s substations are exposed and vulnerable, lacking adequate protection against Russian air attacks. On Nov. 28, attacks against four substations forced a temporary shutdown of one of the four reactors at the Rivne complex. The same series of attacks forced nuclear power plants at all three complexes to reduce electricity output as a precautionary measure since the resulting damage had created dangerous instabilities in the grid.

Forcing a shutdown of a nuclear power plant by attacking the surrounding substations is straight out of the Russian playbook: In September 2022, Russia compelled the closure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using similar means. By attacking nearby substations and thereby frequently interrupting the steady flow of power across a period of several weeks, Russia drove the facility to decrease output, then to supply power only to itself, and finally to lose connection to offsite power. This loss of offsite power happened repeatedly during the attacks, raising the perceived risk of an accident enough that the International Atomic Energy Agency intervened, encouraging Ukraine to close the facility, which it did in September 2022. Russia declared that it had taken control of the shuttered plant on Oct. 5, 2022. It remains in Russian hands today.

From that experience, Russia learned how the International Atomic Energy Agency might respond to a situation of heightened danger to a nuclear power plant. In fact, the agency has played a leading role in helping Ukraine manage its nuclear power since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Thus, the prospect of using the agency as a tool to compel shutdown offers a potentially attractive option to the Kremlin.

The Role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in the Russo–Ukrainian War

In response to the first-ever occurrence of heavy fighting near nuclear power plants, the International Atomic Energy Agency became involved in the war on the second day of the invasion. The Ukrainian government notified the agency on Feb. 25, 2022 that it had lost control of the Chernobyl plant, which had been managed by Ukrainian authorities since its shutdown in 1986. It also invited the agency to take on an enhanced regulatory role during the conflict.

Since that day, the agency has established an important role for itself in the war, reporting on the state of Ukraine’s power supply and working to reduce risks of a nuclear catastrophe. It has supported Ukraine generously, completing 86 deliveries of safety and security equipment worth more than $14 million. In March 2022, the agency established seven “indispensable pillars” for nuclear safety and security amid the conflict, and it has provided regular reports on dangers to these pillars ever since. The presence of “secure off-site power supply from the grid for all nuclear sites” — or pillar four — is among the most often reported. At the invitation of Ukraine, the agency has established monitoring teams at each of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant complexes, including Zaporizhzhia. The agency continues to report on the risks at Zaporizhzhia and regularly emphasizes the fact that closing the plant significantly reduced — but did not eliminate — risk.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s nuclear safety pillars have subsequently been endorsed by all member states, including Ukraine and Russia. The office of the agency’s director general releases a press statement every time a nuclear-safety-relevant incident occurs. As of Jan. 23, 2025, there had been 271 statements on the situation in Ukraine. The agency has undoubtedly made all of Europe safer by its intervention.

This very intervention, however, suggests a potential lever for the Kremlin. The agency has become the key vehicle for providing European donor assistance to Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Continuous agency reporting of irregularities and risks can serve to heighten European concern about possible risks to the surrounding areas of an accident or incident. Russia is clearly aware of the concern and seems to be deliberately ratcheting up the fear, including by carrying out a Dec. 10, 2024 drone attack on the vehicle of newly arrived agency observers.

The Acceptable Level of Risk

Ukraine is thus partially dependent both on the agency and on European energy ties. Beginning in 2011, Ukraine joined the European Energy Community, setting itself on a course to be fully compliant with E.U. energy law — and compatible with the massive European grid. This required steadily disengaging from the Russian grid and increasing the transparency of all energy trade with Russia. The European Energy Community, which includes all E.U. members, welcomed Ukraine’s membership, hoping that a new member with surplus nuclear generation capacity could assist with achieving Europe’s ambitious goals to increase electricity generation while continuously decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the potential economic windfall involved, Ukraine managed to achieve and implement the difficult but necessary structural energy reforms. From 2011 to 2022, the successive disengagement from Russian energy structures and systems served to further increase tensions with Russia.

By February 2022, Ukraine had only one remaining requirement for gaining membership in the European grid: to demonstrate that it could operate its domestic grid reliably in isolation for a week. This “de-linking” (from Russia, Belarus, and Poland) had been previously scheduled for Feb. 24. Since the full-scale invasion began the same day and Ukraine went ahead with de-linking despite the attack, Ukraine’s grid continued to operate in isolation until it was accepted permanently into the European electricity grid on March 16, 2022. Thereafter, Ukraine became a net exporter, steadily exporting electricity to Europe from March 2022 through August 2022. The revenue and status Ukraine derived from those exports were significant factors in the Russian decision to increase shelling of the substations and power lines associated with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Since the closure of that facility on Sep. 12, 2022, Ukraine has become a net importer of electricity, regularly petitioning the European grid system for higher import volumes and more infrastructure. According to Ukraine’s energy ministry, Kyiv regards its energy relationship with Europe as a crucial source of imports at present — but as a critical export market in the longer term. Thus, maintaining a reputation for reliability and safe operation of its power generation is essential.

Ukraine is not the only country focused on a nuclear energy future. In fact, nuclear energy is enshrined in European law as a long-term fuel source for the green transition, and 12 E.U. states joined the United States, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine in pledging to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 as part of U.N. climate commitments. However, history suggests a nuclear accident caused by the war could derail a potential nuclear renaissance. The 2011 Fukushima disaster led to a collapse in the global price of uranium and had a measurable impact on the trajectory of nuclear power globally, as it compelled countries to recalculate unanticipated risks. Experts are already reconsidering the military implications of nuclear power and calling for stronger international oversight to precede new construction.

Due to the fear of an accident with local and international implications, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States are likely to join with the International Atomic Energy Agency in insisting on shutting down any of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant complexes if they — or the grid to which they are connected — fail to meet international safety standards. The E.U.–Ukraine Association Agreement states, in Article 342, that Ukraine must cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency principles and standards for nuclear safety. With the agency monitoring on the ground and releasing regular press statements, there will be little room for Ukraine to negotiate.

Ukraine’s Energy Security Options

International advisors and Ukrainian energy experts agree that the best measure Ukraine can take to avoid grid collapse is to concentrate air defense systems on protecting the key substations: Defending the grid is as critical as defending the remaining megawatts. Even the International Energy Agency, which typically focuses on the infrastructure and market development of its members, has included “bolster the physical and cyber security of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure” first among its priority recommendations for getting Ukraine through the rest of the winter.

While air defense in Ukraine has improved dramatically since the first year of the war, they are stretched thin. Ensuring that the systems in operation have sufficient munitions has also been a challenge. It is unclear the extent to which Ukraine has prioritized air defense for the electricity sector — although domestic and international energy sector experts have strongly advocated for it. The Ukrainian defense during the 2024 Christmas attack is illustrative: The reported success rate of destroying 65% of missiles and drones kept Russia from controlling the air, but this leaves considerable room for damage if the attacks are well-targeted.

Meanwhile, the ability to conduct rapid repairs to the grid and substations is an area in which Ukraine has excelled. Ukraine’s ability to restore power to half a million citizens within 24 hours of the Christmas day attacks was remarkable. According to experts at the Ukraine Energy Security Dialogue in December 2024, the ability to repair transformers rapidly has been dramatically improved (although it still takes 17 days). In addition, Ukraine has sought resilience through building up distributed power: Over 1.5 million power generators have been imported, 200 megawatts of energy storage has been purchased to help increase grid resilience, and some decentralized power systems are in place. Absent sufficient air defense for the grid, however, these measures may not be enough.

If Ukraine is able to make it through the winter, the coming year looks more promising. The International Energy Agency released a recent report arguing for a decentralized electricity system for the country to supplement its nuclear power. Such a system would integrate renewables, batteries, and modular gas turbines, which could significantly improve the resilience of the grid. Distributed energy resource systems are typically more difficult to target, while making it possible to generate power closer to demand centers. If sufficient investment can be found, such a system could be put into place relatively rapidly.

While Ukraine improves its own ability to generate power, it can also increase electricity imports from the European grid system. Current import levels are limited by existing contracts and infrastructure, but Ukraine’s imports expanded significantly in the past year from 1.7 to 2.5 megawatts and could be further increased in the spring. The key barriers to imports are security and cost. Russia has regularly targeted cross-border transmission lines, so increased imports must be coupled with improved air defense in additional strategic locations. Finally, like much of the country, Ukraine’s electricity sector is battling insolvency. After a year of near-constant attacks, the grid operator, Ukrenergo, had to suspend payments in November 2024. Although it is said by the Ukrainian government to be “restructuring,” the operator’s inability to pay for electricity imports serves to dampen enthusiasm for expanding exports.

The Worst Case Scenario

If keeping Ukraine’s electrical grid functioning seemingly requires huge investment, consider the cost of a failure to do so. Ukraine’s ability to keep the lights on is closely tied to both regime survival and European stability. Ukraine is 70 percent urban, with five major cities having over 900,000 residents each. Large urban areas such as these rapidly become ungovernable without electricity. The highly centralized systems in Ukraine mean that a loss of electricity puts water, sewage, and heat at risk as well, increasing the likelihood of large-scale population displacement. An estimated 6.8 million refugees have already left Ukraine, with an additional 4.0 million internally displaced. A catastrophic outmigration would create a refugee crisis across Europe, especially in neighboring states. Poland is already hosting over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees and Germany is hosting over 1.5 million. An additional nine European countries are hosting between 100,000 and 900,000 each. Europe has mostly been welcoming, but a second wave of refugees would strain the resources of even the most generous states. A full-blown winter refugee crisis could reduce Europe’s will to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight and in its negotiation of the terms of peace.

A grid collapse, should it occur, would reflect the ongoing role played by energy in this war. From the 2015 severing of Crimea from Ukraine’s electricity grid, to the 2015–2016 massive cyber attacks on Ukraine’s grid, to the destruction of the Nord Stream II pipeline, energy has factored heavily into the grievances and the ends, ways, and means of the Russo–Ukrainian war from its outset. We now find ourselves in a moment in which a slow war of attrition could come to an abrupt end, resolved by the triumph of cold and darkness. Ukraine’s survival now turns not on megatons, but on megawatts.

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Theresa Sabonis-Helf is a professor at Georgetown University, and concentration chair for science, technology, and international affairs in the Masters of Science in Foreign Service program.

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(Please note that the Sunday and Saturday NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS are also added below by category, following Monday’s news posts in order to maintain continuity of nuclear news as well as for research for the overall information provided in “LLAW;s All Things Nuclear”.)

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War Threats
Nuclear War
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in today’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Monday, (02/03/2025)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert – Little Rock Public Radio

Little Rock Public Radio

… about underground nuclear testing. Speaking was the woman who was in … all kinds of experiments to make sure the nuclear weapons still work.

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert – Public Radio Tulsa

Public Radio Tulsa

BRUMFIEL: Then she started talking about what the U.S. is doing, how they run computer simulations and they do all kinds of experiments to make sure …

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert – KCCU

KCCU

All Things Considered. Next Up: 7:00 PM Performance Today. 0:00. 0:00. All … Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert. NPR.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Nuclear curious? Here’s what you need to know about the Coalition’s energy claims

The Guardian

Peter Dutton says building nuclear reactors will bring down power prices, but experts doubt it and say it will cost the climate too

One More Nuclear Country: With 43% Of World’s Uranium, Russia’s Key Ally Is Building Its …

EurAsian Times

However, Kazakhstan had only one Russia-made nuclear power reactor, which operated from 1972 to 1999, generating electricity and desalinating water. A …

Southeast Asia looks to nuclear power to supercharge its energy transition | AP News

AP News

Nuclear energy is viewed by its proponents as a climate solution since reactors don’t emit the plant-warming greenhouses gases released by burning …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

More emergency flood warnings issued in Far North Queensland | Watch – MSN

MSN

Nuclear Power Redux: Why Scientists Are Reconsidering Its Role in …

Vouchers, tax cuts, water and teacher pay top Gov. Abbott’s State of the State address

Abilene Reporter-News

Abbott also made further cuts to local property taxes a legislative emergency, promised a “nuclear power renaissance” and called for a “generational …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Names Alexandra Bell Its New President

The New York Times

But that cross-pollination of expertise will be key to how we manage these threats. The looming threat for most people these days seems to be climate …

ROK Navy Task Fleet Command launched to counter NK’s nuclear threats

donga.com

The Republic of Korea Navy Task Fleet Command, a core unit of the maritime three-axis system against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, …

Could an Asteroid Really Hit Earth in 2032? – Power FM SA

Power FM SA

Share · How Scientists Track Dangerous Asteroids · Can We Stop an Asteroid? · Should We Be Worried? · Asteroid Extinction Risks vs Other Global Threats.

Nuclear War

NEWS

Nuclear Storytelling: Hollywood and The Bomb

The Nuclear Threat Initiative

The film follows the crew of a submarine exploring a post-nuclear war world that is slowly suffocated by nuclear fallout. On the Beach highlights …

The Electricity Front of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

War on the Rocks

Russia is close to achieving a decisive edge on the energy front of the Russo–Ukrainian war. Repeated attacks on key infrastructure have recently.

An Unreal Pain: Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine Delivers Headlines, But Not Change

Stimson Center

On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new nuclear doctrine governing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. … War and the …

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone National Park: Where geology is on display nearly everywhere! – USGS.gov

USGS.gov

About 631,000 years ago, a massive eruption formed what today is known as Yellowstone Caldera. New deposits, discovered within the caldera, are…

New discovery uncovers hidden magma chambers in Yellowstone National Park – The Times of India

Times of India

Each caldera provides valuable insights into the … Organizations such as the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory update the public in real time.

Underwater Smokers in Yellowstone? – YouTube

YouTube

… smokers in Yellowstone? 1:10 Activity in Yellowstone over the past month Read Caldera Chronicles https://usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/caldera …

February 2, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear WEEKEND NEWS, Sunday, (02/02/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Feb 02, 2025

In order to keep abreast of the weekend nuclear news, I will post Saturday and Sunday’s news, but without editorial comment. If a weekend story warrants a critical review, it will show up on Monday’s postd . . .

If you are not familiar with the weekday daily blog post, this is how the nuclear news post works . . . llaw

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available on this weekend’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Sunday,(02/02/2025)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert | Iowa Public Radio

Iowa Public Radio

All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:00 PM The Daily. 0:00. 0:00. All Things … Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert. NPR. By …

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert | Alabama Public Radio

Alabama Public Radio

All Things Acoustic · Bama Bluegrass · Classical Music with David Duff … Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert. NPR. By …

Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert | Boise State Public Radio

Boise State Public Radio

All Things Considered · Reader’s Corner · Our Living Lands · Something I … Inside a top-secret US nuclear facility in the Nevada desert. NPR. By …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Maryland lawmaker, governor eyes nuclear power to tackle energy gaps amid green shift

YouTube

Two bills before the Maryland General Assembly could fast-track nuclear power plant construction to address the state’s energy generation …

Top Nuclear Energy Companies Shaping the Future of Clean Power | ETF Trends

ETF Trends

With the ability to generate massive amounts of electricity without harmful emissions, nuclear energy offers a sustainable solution to the world’s …

Maryland lawmaker, governor eyes nuclear power to tackle energy gaps amid green shift

WJLA

State Sen. Benjamin Brooks and Gov. Wes Moore are exploring nuclear energy as an option to power Maryland.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Nuclear emergency in Russia: Putin fears the worst – MSN

MSN

Russia could face an unprecedented nuclear disaster as its Kursk nuclear power plant is now dangerously close to the frontlines of the war.

Eskom suspends loadshedding following recovery of emergency reserves

Eskom

… emergency reserves. … Leadership changes at Eskom’s Koeberg Nuclear Power Station as Chief Nuclear Officer leaves to join Canadian nuclear operator.

Budget brings renewed hope on thorium-based power plants in Kerala

Mathrubhumi English

In traditional nuclear reactors, even when the reactor shuts down in an emergency, significant heat continues to be generated. To prevent a meltdown, …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Rafael Grossi: Is the world edging closer to nuclear conflict? – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on nuclear threats, global tensions, and the future of atomic security.

The world at war: the flashpoints that the west ignores – The Guardian

The Guardian

The reasons are familiar: the risk of nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, disinformation, new technologies. The point is, such threae poorly ..

Putin ‘assassination plot’ could spark ‘nuclear war‘ with warning issued – Irish Star

Irish Star

Putin ‘ignores’ Trump threats with Russia planning ‘new attacks’ irishstar … threat to global security, a direct path to nuclear war. Al

Nuclear War

NEWS

Rafael Grossi: Is the world edging closer to nuclear conflict? – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on nuclear threats, global tensions, and the future of atomic security.

Putin ‘assassination plot’ could spark ‘nuclear war‘ with warning issued – Irish Star

Irish Star

The Kremlin was rocked by the assassination of one of its top military commanders in Moscow in December, sparking fears that Vladimir Putin could ..

Rafael Grossi: Is the world edging closer to nuclear conflict? | Talk to Al Jazeera – YouTube

YouTube

With wars redrawing global alliances and nuclear tensions rising, is the world at a turning point? From Iran’s stalled nuclear deal to North …

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone supervolcano study sparks new debate on where and when it will erupt

Earth.com

Yellowstone’s magma system shows new activity, with the northeast sector possibly hosting future volcanic activity.

Yellowstone Supervolcano New Study Fuels Speculation: Where and When Could It Erupt?

The Daily Galaxy

Beneath Yellowstone’s geysers and hot springs, a vast volcanic system holds secrets that scientists are still uncovering. A new study has mapped …

USGS Monitoring Massive Volcano off U.S. West Coast that Can Erupt Anytime

Weatherboy

… volcano’s 2015 eruption, Axial spewed out 5.5 billion cubic feet of lava. Mike Stone, a USGS researcher at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, told …

February 1, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear WEEKEND NEWS, Saturday, (02/01/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Feb 01, 2025

If you are not familiar with the weekday daily blog post, this is how the nuclear news post works . . . llaw

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available on this weekend’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday,(02/01/2025)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Investigation into the fatal plane-helicopter crash. And, future of nuclear testing

Little Rock Public Radio

The collision happened mid-air over the Potomac River as the jet attempted to land at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. All 67 people on both …

Trump wants to cut the federal workforce. Who they are and what that means – NPR

NPR

Then came Tuesday’s government-wide email giving nearly all federal employees until Feb. 6 to decide whether to opt into a “deferred resignation …

Physics jobs you probably didn’t know existed – Central Michigan University

Central Michigan University

Explore unique physics major careers like renewable energy, gaming, space and more. Discover how physics skills lead to exciting jobs at CMU.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Feds say Palisades nuclear plant restart will have ‘no significant impact’ on environment

MLive.com

COVERT, MI – Authorities with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said that returning uranium fuel to the reactor vessel and generating power …

Artificial Intelligence Is Bringing Nuclear Power Back From the Dead — Maybe Even in California

Comstock’s magazine

… Nuclear Generating Station is a decommissioned nuclear power plant built by SMUD in Herald. (Shutterstock photo). Artificial Intelligence Is …

If You Include Nuclear Energy In Green Taxonomy, It Will Become Easier For Pvt Sector To Invest

YouTube

BudgetWithNews18 | If you include nuclear funding a part of green economy, it will be easier to get private funding for it and not have to depend …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Iran to make “immediate, decisive reaction” to attack on its nuclear sites: FM – Xinhua

Xinhua

… threats of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and a possible U.S. involvement. In the interview aired on Friday, Araghchi noted that Iran’s nuclear …

Iran warns any attack on its nuclear sites would trigger ‘all-out war‘ – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

Ghorbani, a female Iranian international football referee, fled to Sweden after security threats and unfair treatment. … Mahsa Gorbani as a football …

Trump’s incentive to end Putin and Iran’s nuclear threats as ‘global catastrophe’ looms

YouTube

Trump’s incentive to end Putin and Iran’s nuclear threats as ‘global catastrophe’ looms

Nuclear War

NEWS

Iran warns that any attack on its nuclear sites would trigger ‘all-out war‘ – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi tells Al Jazeera that Iran would ‘immediately and decisively’ to an US or Israeli attack.

Trump Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can He Be the Ultimate Negotiator? – CNAS

CNAS

Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons, China’s rapid nuclear buildup, the United States’s unprecedentedly expensive nuclear modernization, and …

‘Killing Putin Is Best Investment’: Ukraine MP Invites Nuclear War With Russia With New Threat

YouTube

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko sparked outrage with his recent comments at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Axial Seamount: Underwater volcano could erupt by end of 2025 – BBC Newsround

BBC

Mike Stone, a researcher at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, told media outlet Cowboy State Daily: “When Axial Seamount erupts, it’ll look a lot …

Huge volcano eruption predicted for 2025 as scientists are left ‘fascinated’ – World News

Daily Express US

“This particular volcano is probably the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world,” said Mike Poland from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, as …

Nevado del Ruiz Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VONA RPRT OF VA to 20000 ft (6100 m)

Volcano Discovery

… caldera, and Ijen. Yellowstone quakes · Yellowstone quakes. Latest earthquakes under Yellowstone volcano. List and interactive map of current and past …

January 31, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #865, Friday, (01/31/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 31, 2025

(See published article below for descripti9on and photo credit)

LAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with the RISKS and CONSEQUENCES for TOMORROW . . .

To my mind the following article from the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” and author Jon B. Wolfsthal, although well covered and written, is little more than wishful thinking or at best a hopeful possible agreement among nuclear nations that are always, even if ratified, sure to be broken and abandoned, creating more conflict because of the insanity of nuclear arms control and constant build-up and the incredible cost of what’s called nuclear “deterrence”, which is the only shaky preventative we currently have that presently shelters the world from nuclear war..

I am not a believer in the very concept of nuclear armed nation-leaders honestly honoring — especially, the U.S., Russia, and China — any peace agreements that involve anything nuclear. And, Trump’s record of breaking peace and other international agreements is not what one would call commendable nor “peaceful”.

I suppose that optimism is a valuable characteristic, but being optimistic about anything that #47 does or will ever do is not a part of my own confidence that he will even avoid the idea of a potential world-engaging nuclear war. Iran is already threatening the U.S. (meaning Trump) to stay away from them and their nuclear program(s).

Time will tell, of course, but Trump is not yet two weeks into his 2nd presidency and not a single action he has taken thus far has been beneficial nor even tolerable to the United States of America as we know it. ~llaw

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Trump wants a nuclear deal. Can he be the ultimate negotiator?

By Jon B. Wolfsthal | January 31, 2025

On April 4, 2019, President Trump pushed for new arms-control agreements with Russia and China ahead of trade talks at the White House with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. In Davos last week, Trump suggested again that he may try to negotiate a new arms control agreement with Russia and enter in arms control talks with China. (Credit: White House, via Flickr)

The world has entered the third nuclear age, and nuclear weapons are increasingly seen as valuable—and even usable—weapons by a growing number of states. Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons, China’s rapid nuclear buildup, the United States’s unprecedentedly expensive nuclear modernization, and ongoing nuclear work in North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Iran all make clear the 21st century will be defined by nuclear risks.

The re-election of President Trump is likely to accelerate many of these trends as US allies increasingly question whether the United States will defend their security in a crisis, all while it doubles down on its nuclear investment. This modernization-turned-expansion will likely include at least one new nuclear weapon—a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile—and could also include the resumption of explosive nuclear testing in the United States. Despite these negative developments, Trump suggested at the Davos World Economic Forum last week that he may try to negotiate a new arms control agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s initial offer also included calls to negotiate with China. But it is very unlikely that China will agree to any such talks until its nuclear build-up reaches some parity with the United States and Russia, something that will take perhaps two decades. Until then, any agreement will likely be bilateral between Washington and Moscow.

Sadly, President Trump’s track record of actually negotiating nuclear agreements is poor. During his first term, Trump said he wanted to negotiate a nuclear deal with North Korea (he tried and failed), with Iran (he never tried and withdrew from an existing agreement), and with Russia and China at the same time (he failed at both). But this time around, Trump has a chance to prove his negotiating skills—but only if he does it the right way.

Terms of a nuclear deal. Trump is a baby of the Cold War, an era when nuclear weapons were seen as the ultimate symbol of US and Soviet national power and prestige. And Trump has always seen himself as the ultimate negotiator. In the 1980s already, Trump even reached out to the Reagan administration and proposed himself as the lead negotiator for nuclear talks with the Soviets. Reagan’s team passed on his offer and eventually negotiated the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty or INF in 1987 and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START I in 1991—the first nuclear agreement to effectively reduce nuclear arsenals. Ironically, President Trump withdrew from the INF treaty in 2017, some 30 years after he was passed over for the job. But past rejections and failures die hard with Trump.

Trump’s comments in Davos beg some serious questions: Should Trump negotiate with Russia’s Putin, and what terms should he pursue if US and global security is to be enhanced?

The United States and Russia are currently parties to the New START agreement—a successor to START I—negotiated in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev. The agreement caps each country at no more than 1550 strategic offensive weapons on 700 deployed launchers. Russia has stopped reporting nuclear forces as required by the agreement since March 2023, but both states have pledged to continue to abide by the treaty’s limits. The Biden administration announced in its final days that Russia may have exceeded these limits by a small margin, casting doubt on the entire agreement’s future under Trump. In any event, New START expires in February 2026 and no extension is legally possible. If any limits are to be put in place, a new deal will need to be negotiated, and the clock is ticking on Trump.

China’s nuclear expansion will clearly influence any US effort to negotiate with Russia. In addition to Russia remaining a nuclear peer, US nuclear and security officials from both parties are concerned about China building up its nuclear forces. Yet here, too, facts matter: China has roughly 600 total nuclear warheads, compared to the United States’s 1550 accountable strategic weapons under New START and 3700 weapons in total. And Russia’s arsenal is even larger. However, as China catches up, some analysts and officials believe the US must expand its arsenal to deter and, if needed, defeat Russia and China at the same time. This has yet to be proven militarily or strategically, but politically, in the United States, it is being taken at face value. The policy being pushed is that the United States should try to match the combined nuclear arsenals of Russia and China. That mindset will result in a never-ending arms race—the same one that led Russia and the United States to possess combined arsenals of 70,000 nuclear weapons at the peak of the Cold War—to no one’s advantage or security.

This is where the possible terms of a Trump deal might come together.

The United States and Russia have been part of arms limitation agreements since 1972. Allowing these agreements to lapse altogether opens the door to further arms racing and instability. Into this gap, Trump might be tempted to offer Russia a shorter-term deal of perhaps five or 10 years that puts an upward cap on nuclear arsenals but allows both to expand their forces from where they are now. Because arms control negotiations typically favor nice round numbers (New START is an exception), the United States and Russia might agree to, say, 3000 strategic weapons each. This new limit would allow Russia and the United States to roughly double their deployed strategic weapons while creating the illusion that the arms race is under control. However, an agreement that does not require weapon reductions would be a major step back in such agreements. The last time Washington and Moscow agreed to a deal that allowed both sides to build up their arsenals was in 1972.

In addition, arms control negotiations—from Reagan through Obama—all featured on-site inspections and effective verification. Support for this approach has broad political consensus. Yet agreeing to such steps requires hard and determined work, something the Trump team has yet to demonstrate in this arena. Trump may, therefore, bypass such steps and simply agree to an exchange of data with Russia and rely on national intelligence means (spying) and satellites for the rest. Trump’s negotiators offered Russia a similar approach during his first term, in a deal that never came to fruition. And while any agreement without effective verification would be far less effective than New START or its predecessors, it could still be sold as offering some marginal intelligence and defense value. This is not what any traditional arms control approach should seek to produce, but it should be clear to anyone by now that Trump does not tend to follow traditional approaches.

Bottlenecks. The form of a US-Russian nuclear deal is also an open question.

In the past, most but not all nuclear arms control agreements with Russia have been submitted as treaties to the Senate for its advice and consent. The now Republican-controlled Senate would likely pair approval of any such agreement with additional funding and requirements to accelerate and expand the ongoing nuclear modernization program, which is already slated to cost almost $2 trillion over the next 30 years. Of course, the current Congress is likely to fund this program, treaty or not. Still, Senate Republicans have railed against agreements in the past that cannot be enforced or effectively verified, and any deal without it would put them in a tough spot. However, in the current US political environment, it is easy to see Senate Republican leaders rubber-stamping any of Trump’s efforts in this area—as they might do in so many others.

It is not entirely clear how and when Trump will make negotiating a nuclear treaty with Russia a priority. However, it is easy to see why this kind of strategy might be attractive to Russia’s Putin. Indeed, the benefits of such a deal for Putin are what may lead Trump to invest time and energy on this nuclear agenda. Putin remains an indicted war criminal (Russia has stolen and re-educated Ukrainian children throughout the war), and he might seek to repair his global reputation and regain his position on the world stage. If the war in Ukraine ends or achieves a cease-fire—another goal Trump has promised but has yet to fulfill—the next step would be for Putin to ensure that Trump lifts US sanctions against Russia. A new nuclear arms control agreement might fit very well into Putin’s public relations campaign and facilitate Trump’s efforts to build political support to undo US pressure on Russia. This will also put the Republicans’ puzzling but sustained admiration for Russia under Putin to the test.

Last, Trump might find this approach to the deal attractive because it would put the Democratic caucus in the Senate in a tight spot. Democrats have traditionally supported negotiated nuclear arms control with Russia to control arms racing and nuclear dangers. Asking them to support a deal, even with Putin—and commit to even larger nuclear budgets to pay for it—is all but certain to divide Senate Democrats. To gain Senate approval, a treaty would require 67 votes. It is not hard to see at least two dozen Democrats or so supporting a deal to cap—even at such a large increase of forces—nuclear weapons and fund what will be billed as a necessary expansion of the US deterrent forces.

Bad deal vs. no deal. These bottlenecks beg the central question of whether a US-Russian agreement along these lines is in the United States’s interest. Put in terms familiar to conservatives: Is a bad agreement worse than no agreement at all?

Answering this requires deciding whether the United States needs to expand its nuclear force to deter Russia and China at the same time. But that is hotly debated right now. Needed or not, the United States is taking steps now that will enable it to expand its forces in the future year. The Biden administration considered steps to pursue this expansion, and the Trump team is likely to follow suit, including by putting more warheads on existing US land-based missiles and bombers.

By any historical standard, an agreement that is not effectively verified and does not substantially limit the growth of US, Russian (or Chinese) nuclear forces has marginal value for the United States and its allies. One that enables a doubling of strategic forces is better described as performative arms control. A hollow agreement might feel good, but it would likely do little to reduce nuclear risks or address growing international pressure to take serious steps toward disarmament.

Of course, these voices are likely to have little, if any, influence on the Trump administration, which now feels empowered and eager to destroy past norms and agreements. And such a nuclear deal might even bolster Trump’s self-promoted case that he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, another one of Trump’s long-held wishes. But even if negotiated and approved, such a treaty would not bring stability or peace—and it would have to be heavily scrutinized. Yet without an agreement, the three largest nuclear powers will likely keep building up their arsenals. Weighing the benefits of a performative agreement versus no agreement at all is a choice the United States can and should seek to avoid.

The ultimate negotiator. Trump has an opportunity to negotiate a deal that effectively reduces nuclear risks and improves US security.

There remains hope that the president might put in the hard work required to achieve a treaty that caps US and Russian strategic weapons at current or lower levels—a level still far above what China possesses. If Washington and Moscow lock in current levels, it could take China as long as 20 years for them to catch up. This means Russia and the United States together would have almost 10,000 total weapons and China would have no more than 1500 for at least the next decade. And if China’s arsenal ever gets to a size that undermines the United States’s deterrent, whoever is president at the time would always have the possibility of withdrawing from a treaty that no longer serves US interests. Given how quickly the international security environment is changing, the new agreement could have an initial period of five years, with the option to extend for additional five-year periods, as needed. In the intervening years, circumstances and leaders will change. Creating some nuclear stability and predictability for a decade or more is a worthy achievement and should be seriously considered.

A new agreement at current or lower levels should and could include robust on-site verification that uses the lessons learned from over 50 years of inspections, as well as rely on advanced satellite and other sensor technology. All can be brought to bear in a way that protects secrets but provides the necessary transparency to make a deal worth having.

Certainly, a bad nuclear deal with Russia can, in many ways, be worse than no deal at all. But in this case, President Trump has a chance to prove his negotiating prowess and produce a deal that benefits US security now and into the future without compromising the ability of the United States to deter both Russia and China, at the same time. If President Trump seizes that chance, he will deserve accolades.

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Read the top news and updates published on IAEA.org this week.

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January 30, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #864, Thursday, (01/30/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 30, 2025

A view shows railway packages for containers with uranium hexafluoride salt, raw material for nuclear reactors, similar to the one to be used for the IAEA Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Bank, at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Oskemen

(See published article below for image description and photo credits)

LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

Without saying so the Nuclear Energy world has ignorantly placed their questionably productive cart before their very lame horse. What possible good is a nuclear power plant with no nuclear fuel (primarily enriched uranium) to run the new and old refurbished nuclear reactors. It’s like buying a new or used car with no gasoline (or batteries) to make it go.

Evidently nobody —because they were all back-slapping politicians being politically driven by global warming and the near-death nuclear industry — thought about an adequate nuclear fuel supply at that COP28 summit in December of 2023 when more than 20 countries launched the “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Power”. And, yes, it was the United States who cheer-led the summit that had its own dried up functional uranium producing industry that has steadily shriveled up since the early 1980s.

So it is that now the nuclear industry is in a bind to fuel the “White Elephants” — meaning the new potentially dangerous unproven nuclear reactors as well as older refurbished potentially dangerous nuclear reactors that are being raised from the dead.

And we should have known long ago that Nuclear Power is never going to solve the global warming issue. ~llaw

Nuclear revival puts uranium back in the critical spotlight

By Andy Home

January 30, 20256:40 AM PSTUpdated 5 hours ago

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) – Is uranium a critical mineral?

Not according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which dropped it from its critical minerals list in 2022 on the grounds it didn’t qualify because it was a “fuel mineral”, opens new tab.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants it to think again.

One of Trump’s many “Unleashing American Energy”, opens new tab directives requires the Secretary of the Interior to instruct the director of the USGS to “consider updating the survey’s list of critical minerals, including for the potential of including uranium.”

Inclusion on the list would open up federal funds and fast-track permitting for domestic uranium projects.

It seems curious that uranium has slipped through a legal gap in the Energy Act of 2020, which stipulates only a “non-fuel mineral” can be considered a critical mineral.

Uranium ticks many of the criticality boxes. It’s experiencing a step-change in demand, global supply is heavily concentrated and the United States is almost totally import dependent.

The uranium price reflects these changing dynamics. Last year’s frothy rally to a 16-year high of $106 per lb has dissipated. But at a current price of $71 per lb, uranium is still higher than at any point in the decade that followed the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.

NUCLEAR COMEBACK

Fukushima caused many countries to rethink the role of nuclear in their energy mix but the threat of global warming has brought nuclear power in from the cold.

And at the moment, you have got this kind of overhang and uncertainty with Trump and tariffs from the U.S. and potential implications on the European economies.

The affirmation came at the COP28 summit in December 2023, when more than 20 countries launched the “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Power”.

It was official recognition, opens new tab of “the key role of nuclear energy in achieving global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and keeping the 1.5-degree goal within reach.”

Such green credentials likely don’t count for much with the Trump administration but Republicans view nuclear energy as a core component of national security, meaning it enjoys bipartisan support in the United States, albeit for different reasons.

Big tech is also enthusiastic as it searches for ever more power to feed its data centers. Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab signed a deal with Constellation Energy (CEG.O), opens new tab in September to help resurrect a unit of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

The re-embrace of nuclear power is a global trend.

Generation from the world’s fleet of nearly 420 reactors is on track to reach new heights in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Some 63 reactors are currently under construction, one of the highest levels since 1990, and the lifetimes of over 60 reactors will be extended, the IEA said.

SUPPLY STRESS

The resurgence of nuclear power means the world is going to need a lot more uranium and supply is already struggling to match demand.

A decade of low prices has taken its toll, particularly in the United States, where production fell from almost five million lb in 2014 to just 21,000 lb in 2021, according to the IEA.

Global uranium production is now heavily concentrated. Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia accounted for around two-thirds of global output in 2022, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Indeed, one of the triggers for the January 2024 price spike was a warning from Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (KZAP.KZ), opens new tab, the world’s largest producer, it might not achieve production targets due to a shortage of sulphuric acid.

Market stress is compounded by political stress.

The United States is trying to break its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium. Russian material accounted for 27% of the enriched uranium supplied to U.S. commercial reactors in 2023.

The Joe Biden administration banned Russian imports, albeit with waivers through 2027. Russia has responded by imposing restrictions on shipments to the United States, also with waivers.

Complicating things further is Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canada, which is the largest supplier of uranium to the U.S. market.

GOING CRITICAL

The uranium market is recharged after a decade in hibernation.

There was a lot of speculative froth in last year’s price spike with both institutional investors such as Goldman Sachs and retail investment vehicles such as Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U_u.TO), opens new tab chasing the rally.

But the uranium price remains historically high. The market is pricing in a supply shortfall relative to demand from a growing global fleet of nuclear reactors.

The United States has plenty of potential new supply projects, many of them using leach technology, with which to fill the gap.

How quickly they can be activated depends on the difference between a critical mineral and a “fuel mineral” that is increasingly critical.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters

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Editing by David Evans

Andy Home

Thomson Reuters

Senior metals columnist who previously covered industrial metals markets for Metals Week and was EMEA commodities editor at Knight-Ridder (subsequently Bridge). Started up Metals Insider in 2003 and sold it to Thomson Reuters in 2008, he is author of ‘Siberian Dreams’ (2006) about the Russian Arctic.

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January 29, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #863, Wednesday, (01/29/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 29, 2025

LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

Holy Cow — it’s a 1st! One of my “LLAW’s ALL THINGS NUCLEAR posts actually made my own Google daily TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, from Monday, (01/27/2025). The story was originally posted on news Category 1, “All Things Nuclear” of the email post from my Substack media source outlet.

So, because, yes, it the story is among the very best of the human-interest posts I have made on this daily blog, I am re-posting it again today with the hope that the CODEPINK article by Danaka Katovich from Sunday’ news on my Monday blog will get a whole helluva lot more reads that this important human-interest story deserves ~llaw

All Things Nuclear

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #861, Monday, (01/27/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

PEACECLOCK

Maybe Doom Isn’t Scary Enough

25 January 2025

Danaka Katovich

I interviewed three anti-nuke activists to understand the Doomsday Clock and how our society thinks about the very real threat of nuclear war.

“Dear young people who have never experienced war, ‘Wars begin covertly. If you sense it coming, it may be too late.’” -Takato Michishita, survivor of the bombing of Nagasaki.

On a rainy Saturday afternoon in the Catskill Mountains where New Yorkers went for the summer to escape the city heat, Alice Slater’s mother took her to go see a movie in town. It was late summer in 1945, and the second World War had just ended. Alice remembers parading around the Catskills town a few weeks earlier as everyone celebrated the end of the war. When I asked her when she first became aware of nuclear weapons, the first thing she thought to tell me was about her trip to the theater with her mom. Instead of trailers before the movies they used to show news reels. The mushroom cloud over Hiroshima projected across the screen and Alice asked her mom, “What is that?”

“That’s a wonderful new weapon and now all the boys would come home,” her mom answered.

Between what they showed on the screen and what her mom had told her, at that moment Alice had no real idea what a nuclear bomb was, or what it did to the people it was used on. It was only a mushroom cloud, and the mushroom cloud meant the war was over.

Seventeen years later, Alice was a young mom who had moved to the suburbs of New York City. Her husband was working for CBS and one day he didn’t come home – he had to stay at work to deal with breaking news for a handful of days. The world had just found out that the Soviet Union, bringing us to the height of the Cold War between Washington and Moscow, put nukes just 90 miles off the coast of the United States in Cuba. Alice, even with close proximity to someone who worked in the news, had no idea what was happening. Americans didn’t know the US had nukes near the Russian border in Turkey, too. All they knew was that the communists were threatening them with nuclear bombs. We are far removed from the Cuban Missile Crisis now, but Alice said it was probably the most afraid she’s ever been. People really thought we were about to enter another war and send the entire world into a nuclear winter. Later people found out Kennedy had negotiated to move US nukes out of Turkey. But now they’re back, and scattered all over Europe.

Carol Gilbert, around the same week Alice’s husband didn’t come home from CBS, was at her aunt’s house in Michigan. She was around fifteen years old at the time and she remembered that it must have been during the school year – it was special that she got to go stay there that day, she loved spending time with her cousin. “I remember my mom calling my aunt and saying she was going to come pick us up because they were worried about the bomb,” Carole continued, “At some point I think we knew something bad was happening, but I don’t think I fully understood what was going on.”

On the other side of Lake Michigan from Carol, Kathy Kelly was in her home in Garfield Ridge, Chicago when her mother started putting stuff down in the basement on the day the news broke. Kathy’s parents lived in London during World War II, and tried every way they could to keep her sheltered from the trauma of war, but in the face of nuclear war – what are parents to do?

All three women recall the Cuban Missile Crisis as a time of uncertainty. Where people were freaked out and didn’t know what to do. Alice was afraid for her kids, and Carol’s and Kathy’s moms were clearly afraid for their children too. Then the missiles were taken out of Cuba, and the panic disappeared.

I chose Alice, Kathy, and Carol to interview on this topic because they are anti-war activists I deeply admire. I figured the concern over nuclear weapons amongst my peers may be less than older generations because of things like the Cuban Missile Crisis, or even becoming conscious in the years right after the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But the more elders I talked to, the more I realized how little it may have impacted their trajectory as activists. Alice didn’t become an anti-nuke activist after the missile crisis, and neither Carol nor Kathy mentioned it as a moment they remembered in the awakening of their conscience. Kathy was radicalized on the issue of nukes by the women who worked at the bookshop in downtown Chicago that she would stop into on her way to work as a teenager. Alice was pulled into the movement by the war in Vietnam.

On January 28th, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the Doomsday Clock in 1947, will reveal how close we are to midnight, or “doom”. Since the clock was made, nukes have proliferated all over the world. First it was the US, and then US and Russia – now nine countries have a nuclear weapons stockpile. It would only take a fraction of that firepower to send us into a nuclear winter, wiping out all life as we know it. The Doomsday Clock was created as a warning – a warning that the most powerful people in the world are playing God. It’s not an exaggeration in the slightest, because of a handful of people, one political misstep or accident and our whole planet is destroyed along with every precious life on it. Governments continue to pour trillions of dollars into developing these weapons while people they are supposed to care about sleep out on the street.

With tensions between the US, Russia, China, and Iran at a high, we should all be putting things in the basement, picking our kids up from their playdates, and preparing for disaster. Instead, we walk around like a bomb was never dropped. Like hundreds of thousands of Japanese people didn’t have their lives taken or destroyed. With no reason to believe so, we act like our government would never do it again. While our leaders have bombed a dozen countries to oblivion since World War II ended, we still act like we are the civilians the world ought to care about, like we are untouchable. We aren’t. Mutually assured destruction might be useful if the people with their fingers on the buttons cared for the people they governed, but oftentimes they don’t.

I asked Carol why she thinks no one is really freaked out about nuclear weapons like they ought to be, whether they be my age or hers. She said, “We have too much.” She was talking specifically about Americans, whose lives are inherently made more comfortable because of the conquest and wars of our past and present. Whether we would like to admit it or not, the United States and the entire modern life it provides is built on war. When I asked Alice, specifically in relation to the Cuban Missile Crisis, if people were scared into becoming anti-nuke activists she said, “You’re asking me if I was scared…I just kept hoping that democracy would prevail in some way, I guess.”

Carol, a Roman Catholic sister, along with two other Dominican nuns were convicted of sabotage after pouring their blood into a Minuteman III missile loaded with a 20-kiloton nuclear bomb in Colorado. She spent two and a half years in federal prison for drawing attention to the real weapons of mass destruction while George W. Bush and Dick Cheney made up fake ones in Iraq. In the eighties, Kathy was greeted by four armed soldiers riding in a large military vehicle after she planted corn on top of a nuclear missile silo in Missouri. A soldier was left behind with Kathy while she was handcuffed, kneeling on the ground. “Do you think the corn will grow?” she asked him. “I don’t know ma’am,” he responded, but I sure hope so.” Following a trial, Kathy spent nine months in maximum security prison.

Whether or not the Doomsday Clock reveals we are inching closer to midnight or staying where we are, the fear around nuclear armageddon seems to freeze most of us in our tracks. If the whole world is going to be annihilated and suffering is imminent anyways, why think about it at all? We can cross that bridge to hell when we get there. If there wasn’t a nuclear stockpile that could end life at any moment, maybe people would feel more inspired. Afterall, preventing doom isn’t a particularly motivating notion. On the other side of doom is just life as we’ve been living it, which isn’t that great for a lot of people.

Alice, Carol and Kathy are all inspired activists. When you talk to them you don’t really ever get the sense that they will stop pushing ahead for what they believe in. I met Carol in the halls of Congress last February, despite being over fifty years older than me she was leaving me in the dust. After 12,000 steps on Capitol Hill, she walked with me to a vigil for Aaron Bushnell, an active duty airman who self-immolated over the genocide in Gaza. Never once in any of my conversations with them did I ever get the sense they did what they did out of fear – whether it be fear of war, nuclear winter, or overall doom. They all talk about a world that gives people what they need to survive and thrive. Kathy talked to me about international cooperation and laughed at the idea of borders, “When there’s a nuclear energy accident like Chernobyl or Fukushima, the poison that floats around in the air doesn’t care about your borders.” And she made note of the brilliant atomic scientists, and how quickly they’d figure out how to address the climate catastrophe if only we were to change our priorities. They talk at length about how the world ought to be, and their vision for a better future is what propels them ahead, not doom. Doom isn’t good enough to get us to where we need to go.

Planting corn over a nuclear silo, disrupting a weapons manufacturer, and creating a community of war resisters are steps we can take toward something much more impactful. A world that is mindful about nuclear weapons can push towards their elimination, and we absolutely must. If you’re not moved away from doom, be moved towards peace. At CODEPINK, we’ve created a Peace Clock to give us ways not to just move away from doom, but to bring us closer to the kind of world we want to see. It’s something that’s been within our sight a thousand times, we have to sprint towards it.

“Dear young people who have never experienced the horrors of war – I fear that some of you may be taking this hard-earned peace for granted.” Takato Michishita

Danaka Katovich is CODEPINK’s National Co-Director. Danaka graduated from DePaul University with a bachelor’s degree in Political Science in November 2020

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LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #862, Tuesday, (01/28/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 28, 2025

(See Article from U.S. News below for photo credits and description) ~llaw

LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

So it is that the “Doomsday Clock” was moved forward to 89 seconds from the two-year stint of 90 seconds. It was, I believe, simply a gesture to say that nothing has improved and that therefore a new risk record was set. Watching the speakers who gave their independent reasonings that caused the change, the 1st human name from the 1st speaker was that of Donald Trump (who is oddly not mentioned as a possible uncooperative leader in the U.S. News article posted below) and the risks he presents to the mandatory cooperative world of leadership that is required to set the clock back to a more reasonable amount of time. It occurred to me as the other speakers spoke of global warming, pandemic disease (including avian flu), and, surprisingly, AI and its potential intelligence risk to humanity, and the other usual scourges, mostly of a nuclear variety, the clock had no unusually valid reason other than Trump to move the clock at all with the possible exception of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The already written fill-in-the blanks hurried stories from the media this morning were, with the AI exception, all about the same old controversies, similar to the one posted below . . . ~llaw

‘Doomsday Clock’ Moves Closer to Midnight Amid Threats of Climate Change, Nuclear War, Pandemics, AI

A science-oriented advocacy group says the Earth is moving closer to destruction

By Associated Press

Jan. 28, 2025

Mark Schiefelbein

Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, second from left, and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists member Robert Socolow, second from right, reveal the Doomsday Clock, set at 89 seconds to midnight, as fellow members Herbert Lin, left, and Suzet McKinney, right, watch during a news conference at the United States Institute of Peace, Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Earth is moving closer to destruction, a science-oriented advocacy group said Tuesday as it advanced its famous “Doomsday Clock” to 89 seconds till midnight, the closest it has ever been.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists made the annual announcement — which rates how close humanity is from ending — citing threats that include climate change, proliferation of nuclear weapons, instability in the Middle East, the threat of pandemics and incorporation of artificial intelligence in military operations.

The clock had stood at 90 seconds to midnight for the past two years and “when you are at this precipice, the one thing you don’t want to do is take a step forward,” said Daniel Holz, chair of the group’s science and security board.

The group said it’s concerned about cooperation between countries such as North Korea, Russia and China in developing nuclear programs. Russia President Vladimir Putin has also talked about using nuclear weapons in his war against Ukraine.

“A lot of the rhetoric is very disturbing,” Holz said. “There is this growing sense that … some nation might end up using nuclear weapons, and that’s terrifying.”

Starting in 1947, the advocacy group used a clock to symbolize the potential and even likelihood of people doing something to end humanity. After the end of the Cold War, it was as close as 17 minutes to midnight. In the past few years, to address rapid global changes, the group has changed from counting down the minutes until midnight to counting down the seconds.

The group said the clock could be turned back if leaders and nations worked together to address existential risks.

___

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“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

A must read! This very thoughtful, accurate, and interesting story is from LLAW’s All Things Nuclear WEEKEND NEWS, Sunday, (01/26/2025). It’s about the Tuesday’s (tomorrow) “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) update of the “Doomsday Clock”, the “Cold War”, and the public impact (or lack of) the meaning of a potential nuclear war from a feminine-way perspective with an anti-nuclear point of view — a view that we all must place foremost in our lives and our vision of the future if we are to be sure of our survival.

Author Danaka Katovich understands implicitly why it is that so few of us today are worried about all things nuclear and nuclear war in particular. Since I began this blog, for the very same reasons as her own concerns, about two and a half years ago, I understand and absolutely empathize along with her that we have grown to ignore the threat of “armageddon” from nuclear war because we believe our government(s) have our best interests in mind and therefore they will do the right thing and take care of us — so why bother to worry about the impending threat of “Doom”?

My experience of the futile writing and posting every-day, sadly witnessing an enormous lack of concern for our future and our ultimate human destiny has been a rude awakening for me in the same way it has for Danaka and anyone else who has a sense of facing a possible merciless global nuclear war that threatens our collective reality of life versus a made-up pretentious politicized and militaristic government(s)-led world of forced “peace” through a few world-leaders’ nuclear threats, deterrence, and eventually a doomsday war. And so it is that the “doom” of avoiding nuclear self-destruction, as I’ve stated so many times before on this very blog, only we-the-people — the masses — can prevent our demise at the hands of one power-crazed world leader with a nuclear arsenal at his disposal. ~llaw

PEACECLOCK

Maybe Doom Isn’t Scary Enough

25 January 2025

Danaka Katovich

I interviewed three anti-nuke activists to understand the Doomsday Clock and how our society thinks about the very real threat of nuclear war.

“Dear young people who have never experienced war, ‘Wars begin covertly. If you sense it coming, it may be too late.’” -Takato Michishita, survivor of the bombing of Nagasaki.

“That’s a wonderful new weapon and now all the boys would come home,” her mom answered.

“Dear young people who have never experienced the horrors of war – I fear that some of you may be taking this hard-earned peace for granted.” Takato Michishita

Danaka Katovich is CODEPINK’s National Co-Director. Danaka graduated from DePaul University with a bachelor’s degree in Political Science in November 2020.

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“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 26, 2025

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Kremlin unfazed by threats of additional sanctions and pressure – Weekly Blitz

Weekly Blitz

Trump’s idea that the Kremlin would run screaming due to his threats of tariffs is making the Russians chuckle. According to the mainstream propaganda …

Putin’s puppets demand nuke launch in response to Trump Ukraine threat – MSN

MSN

Putin’s puppets demand nuke launch in response to Trump Ukraine threat. Story by James Reynolds and Will Stewart. • 1d. Vladimir Putin’s propaganda …

Ukraine-Russia latest: Putin ‘ready’ for Trump negotiations as Kyiv sets oil refinery ablaze …

The Independent

‘Thank God’: US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine despite threat, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that the …

Nuclear War

NEWS

North Korea says it tested cruise missile system and vows ‘toughest’ response to US

The Washington Post

North Korea says it tested a cruise missile system, its third known weapons display this year, and vowed “the toughest” response to what it called …

North Korea says it tested cruise missile system and vows ‘toughest’ response to US

ABC News – The Walt Disney Company

KCNA cited Kim as saying that North Korea’s war deterrence capabilities … nuclear attack capabilities against South Korea intact. On Monday …

Maybe Doom Isn’t Scary Enough – CODEPINK – Women for Peace

CodePink

Danaka Katovich. I interviewed three anti-nuke activists to understand the Doomsday Clock and how our society thinks about the very real threat of …

January 25, 2025

LLAW’s All Things Nuclear WEEKEND NEWS, Saturday, (01/25/2025)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jan 25, 2025

If you are not familiar with the weekday daily blog post, this is how the nuclear news post works . . . llaw

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All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
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Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available on this weekend’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday,(01/25/2025)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Tech companies could share cost of small nuclear plant pilot program under bill passed by committee

WBOI

All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:30 PM Today, Explained. 0:00. 0:00. All … They also have concerns about the safety of nuclear waste. Join the …

Local power and foreign mussels | Interlochen Public Radio

Interlochen Public Radio

As Michigan continues its push for clean energy, how does nuclear power factor into that … Max Copeland is the local weekday host of All Things …

NextEra Eyes Restart of Shuttered Nuclear Plant, Partners with GE Vernova on Gas Power …

POWER Magazine

We got to get hands on gas turbines,” he said. “If you take all those things together, when is gas really going to be able to contribute at scale? We’ …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Bill Gates’ TerraPower Has Deal to Use Nuclear Power for Data Centers

POWER Magazine

TerraPower, the nuclear energy company founded by former Microsoft CEO and co-founder Bill Gates, announced it has a memorandum of understanding …

NextEra Takes Step to Restart Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant in Iowa – Bloomberg

Bloomberg

NextEra Energy Inc., one of the world’s biggest suppliers of wind and solar power, is moving to expand its natural gas and nuclear generation in a …

NextEra advances toward Iowa nuclear plant restart | Reuters

Reuters

Nuclear’s ability to supply vast quantities of around-the-clock energy that is virtually carbon-free has boosted shares of nuclear power plant …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Trump’s Energy Emergency Widens the Arc of the Political Pendulum | Cato at Liberty Blog

Cato Institute

What’s in the Order? The executive order endows federal agencies with sweeping emergency powers to fast-track energy infrastructure projects and …

This Iowa County Is Ready For Anything—Are You? – Forbes

Forbes

Risk from tornadoes, floods, even earthquakes, all with a nearby nuclear power station, caused Scott County, Iowa to build a GIS app with …

National Energy Emergency…to Build AI? – Financial Sense

Financial Sense

January 24, 2025 – Energy expert Robert Rapier and 13D’s Woody Preucil join Financial Sense Newshour to explore the reasons behind Trump’s …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Putin Ally Issues Warning on Risks of War Between Nuclear Powers – Newsweek

Newsweek

Putin Ally Issues Warning on Risks of War Between Nuclear Powers … threats of nuclear escalation. The U.S. is a close ally of Ukraine and has …

Risk Of War Among Nuclear States Growing, Warns Russia – Bharat Shakti

Bharat Shakti

“Namely, when repelling an attack using weapons of mass destruction or aggression using conventional weapons that creates a critical threat to …

The Baltic Blueprint: A Modern Approach to NATO’s Deterrence

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

… nuclear presence, focusing on reductions in nuclear forces after the Cold War. … threats blend nuclear and non-nuclear elements. By integrating hybrid …

Nuclear War

NEWS

North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia after suffering casualties, South Korea says

NBC News

South Korea said this month that about 300 of the more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers fighting with Russia against Ukraine had died and 2,700 …

The Naval Scientist Who Wanted To Know How Football Players Would Survive Nuclear War

Defector

It wouldn’t take much, the fan explained, just some radioactive material inside the players, who would then undergo a physical examination.

When Russian Radar Mistook a Norwegian Scientific Rocket for a U.S. Missile, the World …

Smithsonian Magazine

The Norwegian rocket incident, which took place on this day in 1995, marked the only known activation of a nuclear briefcase in response to a …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

LAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with the RISKS and CONSEQUENCES for TOMORROW . . .

The Electricity Front of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Monday, (02/03/2025)

All Things Nuclear

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Yellowstone Caldera

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“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Sunday,(02/02/2025)

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Nuclear War

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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday,(02/01/2025)

All Things Nuclear

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Nuclear War

Yellowstone Caldera

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“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

LAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with the RISKS and CONSEQUENCES for TOMORROW . . .

Trump wants a nuclear deal. Can he be the ultimate negotiator?

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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Friday, (01/31/2025)

All Things Nuclear

Nuclear Power

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Nuclear War

Yellowstone Caldera

IAEA Weekly News

31 January 2025

31 January 2025

30 January 2025

30 January 2025

29 January 2025

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27 January 2025

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

Nuclear revival puts uranium back in the critical spotlight

NUCLEAR COMEBACK

SUPPLY STRESS

GOING CRITICAL

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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Thursday, (01/30/2025)

All Things Nuclear

Nuclear Power

Nuclear Power Emergencies

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Nuclear War

Yellowstone Caldera

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“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES of TOMORROW

Maybe Doom Isn’t Scary Enough

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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Wednesday, (01/29/2025)

All Things Nuclear

Nuclear Power

Nuclear Power Emergencies

Nuclear War Threats