The Doomsday Clock for the “Bulletin of Atomic Scientists” continues to tick away . . .
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
Where do things stand there? ELVING: He is still hoping. And there’s every reason for him and the rest of the world to want both, but Trump made some …
For US nuclear strategists, the attack yielded at least four crucial lessons. … Drone threats are just one of a variety of air and missile threats to …
See article below for description of Iranian Drone image and photo credits . . . ~llaw
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion
This is the most recent story I could find on the U.S./Israel/Iran nuclear agreement, which for all intents and purposes seems to have failed due to nearly impossible restrictions on Iran’s ability to generate, refine, and enrich uranium fuel for their existing and future nuclear power plants. The proposed U.S. restrictions are spelled out in the article, and it is doubtful that Iran will agree to what appears to be unworkable operational restrictions.
So, what is the outlook from where it stands today? Will the U.S. and/or Israel attempt to attack and destroy Iran’s existing nuclear facilities? That is the threat being held over Iran’s future if they fail to comply to what seems to be impossible compliance. That indicates to me that the U.S. has intended all along for any nuclear agreement to fail — based on Trump’s constant rule changes and other aggravations — and now we can blame any future military attack on Iran rather than uncalled for aggression by either the U.S. or Israel.
Other nations who understand the plight Trump has put on Iran’s nuclear power program, and it could well be that some of those other nations will join and support any attempt to destroy their nuclear facilities, which they have long held the right to have. Thus, it is becoming apparent that something smells in the States of Israel and the U.S.A.
This entire farce, originated by Trump and his administration, seems not to be considered what the civilized world would refer to as political ”Intrastate Cooperation and Consideration” among or between nations debating projected agreements and compacts. ~llaw
The Islamic Republic Armed Forces General Staff, Iran’s highest military authority tasked with coordinating the conventional army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a threatening statement on June 4 amid stalled nuclear negotiations with the United States. The statement declared that “by standing firm against [US] threats,” the Iranian armed forces under the command of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “are ready with exemplary power to confront the enemies.”
The announcement came after Khamenei rejected Washington’s latest nuclear proposal in a June 4 sermon. He condemned the US demand for the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program, accusing the West of fixating on enrichment. “Enemies are focused on enrichment,” Khamenei said, dismissing the idea of operating “a hundred nuclear plants without enrichment” as senseless. He then issued a defiant warning. “Our answer to America is clear,” he said, adding that the “Americans and Zionist” officials behind the proposal “should know they cannot do a damn thing.”
The US proposal, delivered to Tehran on May 31, reportedly permits limited low-level uranium enrichment in Iran for an unspecified period but imposes strict conditions: dismantling key conversion infrastructure, halting centrifuge research and development, and banning new enrichment sites. It envisions a regional consortium, restricts enrichment to civilian use, caps levels at 3 percent, and renders underground facilities non-operational. Though enrichment is allowed in principle, the plan effectively requires Iran to dismantle existing infrastructure until the new consortium is in place.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Khamenei and a key figure on the nuclear file, rejected the US proposal as unserious on June 4, calling its architects “amateur.” Shamkhani criticized the absence of any reference to sanctions relief—“an essential issue for Tehran”—and firmly rejected the goal of full disarmament. “America’s objectives of dismantling its nuclear program and reducing uranium enrichment to zero would not materialize,” Shamkhani stated.
Iran has grown increasingly skeptical of the nuclear talks, which ended in Rome without progress. On May 23, Iranian state outlets reported that US envoy Steven Witkoff had left the talks ahead of schedule, while CNN reported that officials in Tehran saw little chance of a breakthrough. Khamenei reinforced this bleak outlook in a May 20 address, denouncing Washington’s demands. That message was echoed on May 22 by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who ruled out any concessions on uranium enrichment.
In line with the Armed Forces’ statement, other branches of Iran’s military escalated their rhetoric. Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh stated on June 4 that “Iran’s power deters Israel from issuing threats,” dismissing recent Israeli warnings as “baseless.” That same day, IRGC Navy Commander Commodore Alireza Tangsiri vowed a “harsh response” to any naval aggression and praised the Tehran-backed Yemeni Houthis for their ongoing attacks against Israel, which have continued almost daily since May.
State media further amplified the regime’s messaging, broadcasting a propaganda video showcasing Iran’s latest unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The footage featured the Jas-313 bomber UAV, capable of flying at 45,000 feet with a top speed of Mach 0.8 and an endurance of one hour. The IRGC Navy employs the drone for both reconnaissance and strike missions, and one source claimed the Jas-313 is designed to evade radar detection.
Iran has moved beyond rhetoric and taken concrete steps to reinforce its air defense posture amid growing concerns that failed nuclear negotiations could trigger a US or Israeli military strike. The regime’s air defense network suffered significant losses during Israeli air campaigns in April and October 2024, which damaged or destroyed most of its surface-to-air missile systems, including Russian-supplied S-300 batteries and associated radar units. In response, Tehran has reportedly redeployed air defense assets around sensitive nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Fordow.
Recent public displays suggest an effort to signal readiness: during last month’s Army Day parade in Tehran, Iran displayed an S-300 launcher and radar vehicle. In military drills held in February, an S-300 system was observed firing a missile using what appeared to be an Iranian-made radar system—likely a substitute for imported systems rendered inoperable during previous strikes.
Iran’s heightened alert is driven not only by concerns over a possible US or joint US-Israeli strike but also by a growing fear in Tehran that Israel may act unilaterally. CNN reported on May 20 that US intelligence believes Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi condemned the threat on May 22 and warned of “special measures” if it materializes. The same day, Iran’s UN mission submitted a letter holding Washington legally accountable for any Israeli military action. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News vowed severe retaliation, while Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri pointed to Iran’s April and October 2024 attacks on Israel as warnings of what could follow.
Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
All Things Considered · Fresh Air · Up First. Featured. Embedded · The NPR … And a good reminder that the president pulled out of a nuclear agreement, …
Nuclear Energy Overview · Executive Order Summaries · Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base · Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of …
Ukraine releases dramatic FPV footage of drone attack on Russian airbases (See article)
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion
So the beat goes on and the tension rises as global turmoil grows more concerning wherever there is war or threats of war. There is plenty of both, and the nuclear side of it all continues to become closer to reality rather than mere threats.
One article today pointed out that if cheap drones can virtually wipe out airports filled with multi-billion dollar military grade bombers capable of carrying the most powerful nuclear bombs, it means that the strategic value of drones in nuclear war situations can change by limiting the ability of nuclear powers to achieve their military purpose, as has recently been demonstrated by Ukraine’s successful attack on nuclear-capable but idle Russian bombers being destroyed at their bases.
Such implications of new technology and intelligent action can change the shape of a war. Like any new weapon that can successfully achieve its mission during an actual war, that weapon is going to become an integral part of any military mission, but such a weapon may also prompt a war that begins sooner rather than later in order to avoid similar future successful enemy missions that have not yet been fully developed.
And of course, there still remains the long range nuclear-warheaded ICBM missile that is capable of destroying an entire city and its surrounds, such as Washington D.C., with a single ballistic missile. How do we deal with that? No one actually knows. ~llaw
As Vladimir Putin pledges to retaliate against Ukraine for last weekend’s unprecedented drone attack, Kremlin advisers and figures around Donald Trump have told the US president that the risk of a nuclear confrontation is growing, in an attempt to pressure him to further reduce US support for Ukraine.
Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and an important intermediary between the Kremlin and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, called the Ukrainian drone strike an attack on “Russian nuclear assets”, and echoed remarks from Maga-friendly figures warning of the potential for a third world war.
“Clear communication is urgent – to grasp reality and the rising risks before it’s too late,” Dmitriev wrote, adding a dove emoji.
Ukraine claimed that the strike damaged more than 40 Russian planes, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M heavy bombers that have been used to launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities throughout the war, killing thousands and damaging crucial infrastructure that delivers heat and electricity to millions more.
4:42
Ukraine releases dramatic FPV footage of drone attack on Russian airbases – video
But those planes can also carry weapons armed with nuclear warheads, and are part of a nuclear triad along with submarine and silo-based missiles that form the basis for a system of deterrence between Russia and the United States.
After a phone call between the two leaders on Wednesday, Trump said: “President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.”
Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in return for security assurances from the US, the UK and Russia.
Those skeptical of US support for Ukraine are seizing on the risks of a nuclear confrontation to argue that the conflict could possibly spin out of control.
Maga (Make America great again) influencers such as Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk have openly condemned the drone attack, with Bannon likening the strike to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor and Kirk writing: “Most people aren’t paying attention, but we’re closer to nuclear war than we’ve been since this began in 2022.”
But more centrist advisers within the Trump camp – including some who have closer links to Ukraine – are also warning that the risks of a nuclear conflict are growing as they seek to maintain Trump’s interest in brokering a peace.
“The risk levels are going way up,” Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Ukraine and Russia, told Fox News. “When you attack an opponent’s part of their [nuclear] triad, your risk level goes up because you don’t know what the other side is going to do. And that’s what they did.”
Kellogg also repeated rumours that Ukraine had struck the Russian nuclear fleet at Severomorsk, although reports of an explosion there have not been confirmed. He said the US was “trying to avoid” an escalation.
Other current and former members of the administration skeptical of US support for Ukraine have also vocally opposed the drone strikes.
“It is not in America’s interest for Ukraine to be attacking Russia’s strategic nuclear forces the day before another round of peace talks,” said Dan Caldwell, an influential foreign policy adviser who was a senior aide to Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon until he was purged amid a scandal over leaks last month.
“This has the potential to be highly escalatory and raises the risk of direct confrontation between Russia and Nato,” he said. “US should not only distance itself from this attack but end any support that could directly or indirectly enable attacks against Russian strategic nuclear forces.”
It is not the first time that concerns over Russia’s use of a nuclear weapon have been used to try to temper US support for Ukraine.
As Moscow’s forces were routed near Kharkiv and in the south at Kherson in September 2022, Russian officials sent signals that the Kremlin was considering using a battlefield nuclear weapon, senior Biden officials have said.
National security officials said they believed that if the Russian lines collapsed and left open the potential for a Ukrainian attack on Crimea, there would be a 50% chance that Russia would use a nuclear weapon as a result.
Ukrainian officials have responded by saying that Russia has embellished its threats of a nuclear attack in order to blackmail the US from giving greater support to Ukraine.
Why you can rely on the Guardian not to bow to Trump – or anyone
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
All Things Considered. Next Up: 7:00 PM National Native News. 0:00. 0:00 … about Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian aircraft and about nuclear talks …
President Trump has accused Iran of “slow walking” talks to reach a deal over its nuclear … All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:00 PM The Daily. 0:00. 0 …
Post Opinions is embarking on a new series in which experts from the Federation of American Scientists examine the threat of nuclear conflict. I would …
Some believe Yellowstone National Park is a ticking time bomb and that the Yellowstone Caldera is only a matter of a few earthquakes away from blowing …
See Al Jazeera article below for image description and photo credits. ~llaw
LAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion
“Why are you interfering in whether Iran should have enrichment or not? You cannot have a say.”, Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, directing his question and statement directly at Trump’s on-again-off-again-on again contradictory demand(s).
I suppose this response from Khamenei will end the talks for a USA/Iran agreement on nuclear power operations and facilities in Iran. Let’s hope it doesn’t start a war involving the USA/Israel, and Iran, because even though that is bad enough as it would no doubt be, it could also easily explode into a nuclear war involving other nations who possess nuclear weapons of mass destruction as well as nuclear power plants.
We must keep in mind that even though Iran apparently has no nuclear weapons, the USA/Israel attitude is that they “may soon” have a nuclear bomb, but also because Trump and Netanyahu are threatening to destroy Iran’s nuclear power plants and facilities, which would be tantamount to a war involving nuclear energy — not too different in concept as Russia’s inhumane attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear facilities.
So we must learn to keep in mind that, all things considered, nuclear power plants are like stationary nuclear bombs, and the fact that nations internationally are blindly and irresponsibly moving into a nuclear energy world, we are making a huge mistake. If we would just open our eyes to reality, we would ban not just nuclear bombs but also nuclear power of any kind.
There is no such thing as a “safe” nuclear power plant just as there is no responsible way to build and threaten the world with nuclear weapons of mass destruction. One is absolutely as dangerous as the other because they are identical “twins”. ~llaw
Iran’s Khamenei slams US nuclear proposal, vows to keep enriching uranium
Iranian supreme leader says issue of uranium enrichment remains key to Tehran’s pursuit of energy independence.
Khamenei delivered the key speech on Wednesday as the US and Iran continue to negotiate the details of a possible new nuclear deal [File: West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters]
Published On 4 Jun 20254 Jun 2025
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has pledged that Tehran will not abandon its uranium enrichment, rejecting a key demand in a United States proposal aimed at resolving a long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme.
The comments were delivered in a speech on Wednesday as the US and Iran continue to negotiate the details of a possible new nuclear deal. The issue of uranium enrichment has remained a sticking point in the talks, with the US reportedly demanding a complete halt or low-level enrichment in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions against Tehran.
“The US nuclear proposal contradicts our nation’s belief in self-reliance and the principle of ‘We Can,’” Khamenei said in his speech delivered on the commemoration of the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.
Khamenei said the issue of uranium enrichment remained key to Iran’s pursuit of energy independence.
“Independence means not waiting for the green light from America and the likes of America,” he said, adding that the US proposal was “100 percent against” the ideals of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
He said Tehran would not seek Washington’s approval for its decisions.
“Some people think that rationality means bowing down to America and surrendering to the oppressive power; this is not rationality,” Khamenei said.
“Why are you interfering in whether Iran should have enrichment or not? You cannot have a say.”
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
… All Things Considered. Next Up: 7:00 PM World Cafe. 0:00. 0:00. All Things … Nuclear skeptics have pointed to huge cost overruns at a new large scale …
The Russian and Ukrainian delegations leave after the second round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks at Ciragan Palace on June 2, 2025 at in Istanbul, Turkey. (See Reuter’s article for photo credits.)
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion:
Despite Ukraine’s very successful drone attack on Russia’s bombers just a couple of days before the 2nd round of peace talks in Istanbul were scheduled, the talks lasted less than an hour essentially meaning nothing at all was settled, and may have damaged he chances of a peace agreement altogether.
However, there was a discussion concerning a revised prisoner exchange program and Ukraine officials reported that the next round of talks would go on. My question is, given Trump’s apparent anger for not being advised of the well-executed Ukraine attack will interfere in the next round.
Trump has recently complained about Putin’s role in war crimes involving the deaths of civilians including children, and has called Putin “crazy” at one point, but many, including my own thoughts, are that Trump is only using Putin’s war crimes as an excuse to walk away from involvement as an excuse or attempt to to save face about his oft repeated public lie that he could and would end the Russia/Ukraine war immediately, like in one day, after taking office as the U.S. president, although Putin has been accused of multiple war crimes long before Trump continued his ridiculous boasts about ending the war.
The article tells us that both countries would like to keep Trump, who has threatened to abandon any mediation of the peace talks, apprised, but for entirely different reasons. But, regardless of any other issues, Putin has demanded that Ukraine return to Russian political control and give up their hope for democracy and NATO membership — something Zelenskyy has unwaveringly and constantly said, for a year now, both are something Ukraine will never do.
A cease fire is one thing, but a peace agreement is another, and it seems to me that the two countries are no closer to peace than they were a year ago . . . ~llaw
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended barely an hour after they began on Monday.
The talks – the second such direct contacts between the sides since 2022 – had already begun nearly two hours later than scheduled with no explanation of the delay.
The Russian and Ukrainian delegations leave after the second round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks at Ciragan Palace on June 2, 2025 at in Istanbul, Turkey.
Chris Mcgrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended barely an hour after they began on Monday, a day after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s nuclear-capable strategic bombers.
The talks – the second such direct contacts between the sides since 2022 – had already begun nearly two hours later than scheduled with no explanation of the delay.
Although the atmosphere was subdued and dialogue brief, the talks did yield an agreement to conduct a new prisoner exchange and Ukraine said another round of talks was on the agenda.
In Russia, before the talks began, angry war bloggers had called on Moscow to deliver a fearsome retaliatory blow against Kyiv after Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its most ambitious attacks of the war, targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers in Siberia and elsewhere.
Ukraine and Russia have issued starkly different assessments of the damage done to Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers – a key element in its nuclear arsenal – but it was clear from publicly available satellite imagery that Moscow had suffered some serious equipment losses.
“The eyes of the whole world are focused on the contacts here,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had told the Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the start of talks as they faced off against each other on opposite sides of the room in the sumptuous Ciragan Palace by the Bosphorus.
He said the aim of the meeting was to evaluate the conditions for a ceasefire, to discuss a possible meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, and to look at more prisoner exchange opportunities.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who headed Kyiv’s delegation, announced after the talks that a new prisoner exchange had been agreed to follow up on the biggest prisoner swap of the war brokered at the last round of talks.
He said the new exchange would focus on those severely injured in the war and on young people.
Umerov also said that Moscow had handed its own draft peace accord to Ukraine and that Kyiv – which has drawn up its own version – would review the Russian document.
Ukraine has proposed holding more talks before the end of June, but believes that only a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin can resolve the many issues of contention, Umerov said.
Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Kyiv’s delegation had handed over a list of children it said had been deported to Russia and which it wanted back. Moscow says such children were moved in order to protect them from fighting.
The two sides had been expected on Monday to discuss their respective and wildly different ideas for what a full ceasefire and a longer term path to peace should look like amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said the U.S. could abandon its role as a mediator if there is no progress.
But Umerov said Kyiv had been unable to react to Russia’s proposals for peace because it had only seen them on Monday.
Low expectations
While both countries, for different reasons, are keen to keep Trump engaged in the peace process, expectations of a breakthrough on Monday had been low.
Ukraine regards Russia’s approach to date as an attempt to force it to capitulate – something Kyiv says it will never do – while Moscow, which advanced on the battlefield in May at its fastest rate in six months, says Kyiv should submit to peace on Russian terms or face losing more territory.
Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war last June: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four Ukrainian regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia.
According to a proposed roadmap drawn up by Ukraine, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Kyiv wants no restrictions on its military strength after any peace deal, no international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine taken by Moscow’s forces, and wants reparations.
Russia currently controls just under one fifth of Ukraine, or about 113,100 square km, about the same size as the U.S. state of Ohio.
Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after eight years of fighting in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.
The United States says over 1.2 million people have been killed and injured in the war since 2022.
Trump has called Putin “crazy” and berated Zelenskiy in public in the Oval Office, but the U.S. president has also said he thinks peace is achievable and that if Putin delays then he could impose tough sanctions on Russia.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War Threats
Nuclear War
Yellowstone Caldera & Other Volcanoes (Note: There are threeYellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in today’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion:
I have read that the United States was not advised of this surprise attack by Ukraine on the bomber fleet of Russian airplanes that has put a new light of reflection on the long, miserable, and free-world-critical Russia/Ukraine war.
So it is that I have to assume that this secrecy and silence was planned by Zelenskyy and Ukraine, meant to mean that Ukraine will not rely, and perhaps cannot rely, on the United States for help — no doubt because of Trump and his administration’s demand for some kind of payment or financial caveat for continuing to aid Ukraine.
My personal thoughts about this new and very weighty situation is that “Democracy should be Democracy” world-wide regardless of boundaries, but rather wherever its free world countries are located, and all Democratic nations should help shoulder the burden when one or more democratic counties are threatened from Oligarchies or other Authoritarian nations.
Such an understanding among 50 original countries has existed since the European democracies led by the United States of America formed the “United Nations” in San Francisco, California, on June 20, 1945. Ukraine wants to join the UN to help their new Democracy flourish even while once occupied by their neighbor Russia.
The USA, with or without Trump, should help finance and stand behind Ukraine, expecting nothing more in return except for the welcome addition of a vibrant and new Democratic nation joining the free world . . . ~llaw
How will Ukraine’s attack on Russian bombers affect the war?
An unprecedented assault on the eve of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict weakens Russia’s image, observers say.
Ukrainian servicemen check a combat application for presence of Russian drones during an overnight shift in Kharkiv [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]
Kyiv, Ukraine – Any description of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers could leave one scrambling for superlatives.
Forty-one planes – including supersonic Tu-22M long-range bombers, Tu-95 flying fortresses and A-50 early warning warplanes – were hit and damaged on Sunday on four airfields, including ones in the Arctic and Siberia, Ukrainian authorities and intelligence said.
Moscow did not comment on the damage to the planes but confirmed that the airfields were hit by “Ukrainian terrorist attacks”.
Videos posted by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), which planned and carried out the operation, which was called The Spiderweb, showed only a handful of planes being hit.
The strategic bombers have been used to launch ballistic and cruise missiles from Russian airspace to hit targets across Ukraine, causing wide scale damage and casualties.
The bomber fleet is one-third of Moscow’s “nuclear triad”, which also consists of nuclear missiles and missile-carrying warships.
According to some observers, the attack shattered Russia’s image of a nuclear superpower with a global reach.
The attack inadvertently “helped the West because it targeted [Russia’s] nuclear potential”, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of the Ukrainian military’s general staff, told Al Jazeera.
While the assault decreases Russia’s potential to launch missiles on Ukraine, it will not affect the grinding ground hostilities along the crescent-shaped, 1,200km (745-mile) front line, he said.
(Al Jazeera)
Romanenko compared The Spiderweb’s scope and inventiveness to a string of 2023 Ukrainian attacks against Russia’s Black Sea fleet that was mostly concentrated in annexed Crimea.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
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… about the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran over the latter’s nuclear program … All Things Considered. Next Up: 7:00 PM Marketplace. 0:00. 0:00.
Within the first 90 days, the Nuclear EOs address establishing domestic fuel supply, regulatory overhauls, fast-tracking reactor deployments utilizing …
Second round of direct talks in Turkey · Russia and Ukraine still far apart on peace · Ukraine to set out roadmap for peace · Russia: war and negotiation …
Do we really want to unilaterally trust any one of our current nuclear-armed world global leaders with the individual right to NEVER press this button? I think not, and those who have that power must be forced to lose it immediately . . . ~llaw
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
That is enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick. Both IAEA reports said enrichment to such a high level …
… war-fighting readiness.” He cited the emergence of “new nuclear risks,” as well as cyberattacks orchestrated by Russia alongside Iran and North Korea.
Where is the Kilauea volcano? How to find Hawaii’s most active volcano. … Ask a Pro: “How Long Will $1M Last in Retirement?” … Escape and unwind with …
Nuclear Waste Sites in the USA with no place to go for permanent repository disposal . . .
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
… All Music Stations · All News & Talk Stations · All … Moves of the game began with Israeli intelligence finding out about Iranian nuclear capabilities …
The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Saturday comes as nuclear deal negotiations are under way between the United States and …
President Donald Trump has said that trade threats forced India and Pakistan back from the brink when hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors .
Trump reiterated this point following a visit to U.S. Steel’s Mon Valley Works–Irvin plant where he said the U.S. could stop a potential nuclear war ” …
Israel and Hamas at War · Japan · Middle East · Ukraine and Russia at War … DUBAI, May 30 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy …
The statement did not specify if the ICBMs in the simulated attack came from North Korea, but the interceptors at Fort Greely likely would be used in …
The Yellowstone Caldera spans about 30 by 45 miles (50 by 70 km), making it one of the largest volcanic systems in the world. It has experienced three …
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In My Opinion:
Offering on this Friday relevant current looks at updated important news concerning the Russian/Ukraine war that has been more or less ignored with the now questionable U.S./Iran nuclear agreement talks and the possible US/Israel/Iran war situation if those talks fail — all of which is becoming more likely every day. The USA meddling and interfering by Trump is creating dissension and stress around the world.
Trump has — either intentionally or stupidly — thrown contradictory demands in the face at every break during the scheduled talks. His demands have led to a mistrust about the USA and Trump’s dedication of any such nuclear pact. And, as a result, Israel has also returned to the idea of war with Iran with a bombing to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities that Trump has previously told Israel to stand down, and let the U.S. take care of it all through diplomacy that has never arrived. So, the long and short of it all is that the agreement talks are in jeopardy and the war talks are prevalent.
And now Trump is similarly balking about the possible peace situation between Russia/Ukraine because he is insisting that Putin agree to a 30-day cease fire before any peace talks can be held. (See the 2nd to last “Sky News article linked below in the list of the 7 current news for today) . . .
Perhaps Trump needs to bow out or be forced out of any war and peace discussions in both situations as well as the Pakistan/India situation, and, as a practical matter, shut up about annexing Canada by offering them his “Golden Dome” nuclear war defense probable “white elephant” for free if they merge with the United States. It’s never gonna happen where Canada is concerned. llolloll!
And then there are the Greenland, Denmark, and Panama issues waiting in the wings . . . ~llaw
Ukraine war latest: Russia says ceasefire alone can’t end war; Macron warns world not to abandon Ukraine to focus on Asia
Russia has told the UN that a ceasefire can’t end the war in Ukraine by itself. Uncertainty still hangs over potential peace talks next week. Speaking in Asia, France’s Emmanuel Macron warned the world not to abandon Ukraine to focus on the Indo-Pacific.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War Threats
Nuclear War
Yellowstone Caldera & Other Volcanoes (Note: There are two Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in today’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
However, the DOE in its order noted that Michigan has retired about 2,700 MW of coal-fired generation, while its nuclear generation has declined with …
(See Bulletin of Atomic Scientists article below for image description and photo credit ~llaw)
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion:
This article’s subject —the 3rd I’ve recently Posted here — is about the dismal past and future of Trump’s so-called “Golden Dome” nuclear defense shield that may well be the biggest “white elephant” ever created by the USA, but that is not all.
Besides the issue of throwing good money after bad, this article from “The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists” also tells us another story, and that is Trump and his administration are ignoring existing technology, that is documented in this long, but excellent article, and this typical failure of Trump’s presidency is the most important quote of all, and it comes with details:
“Everything we have learned about missile defense over the last 50 years is being ignored by the Trump administration.”
~llaw
Nuclear expert Jon Wolfsthal on the costs of US nuclear weapons programs spiraling out of control
Photo illustration by Thomas Gaulkin (Trident missile photo by US Navy)
Just as the US House of Representatives passed its so-called “big, beautiful bill” last week, offering large tax cuts to the wealthy and kicking millions off their health insurance, President Trump announced that his administration would invest $175 billion over three years in a “Golden Dome” missile defense project that would, purportedly, protect the United States against any missile attack, small or large. This new defense program adds to an already long list of programs for the modernization and replacement of all US strategic nuclear delivery and associated systems.
Currently estimated at about $1 trillion over the next 10 years, the nuclear modernization program has faced technical and management challenges, leading to repeated cost and schedule overruns. These overruns are so large that they triggered a breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which requires Congress to be notified when defense programs exceed certain cost thresholds. There have been two such notifications recently: First in January 2024 for the new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a second time in April for the radar modernization program of the latest configuration of the B-52 bomber. And the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine could trigger another breach: According to a September 2024 Government Accountability Office report, difficulties with the construction of the lead submarine may result in cost overruns that are nearly five times the Navy’s initial estimates.
To help make sense of the cost problem affecting all three legs of the US nuclear arsenal’s modernization, I spoke with Jon Wolfsthal, a nuclear expert and director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists. Wolfsthal, who is a member of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, has studied this issue for over a decade. Earlier this month, he wrote an article for the Federation of American Scientists in which he says the costs “continue to spiral out of control.”
Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
François Diaz-Maurin: I want to start by asking: Why did you write about the cost issue of the US nuclear weapons programs now?
Diaz-Maurin: I guess most of our readers already know that nuclear weapons are costly. But that’s not exactly what your piece is about. It’s rather that the costs are, as you say, spiraling out of control. What do you mean by that? Could you break down a bit what’s happening with those costs?
Wolfsthal: When I first looked at this issue back in 2009, after I entered the Obama administration, it was clear that the Bush administration had not been investing money to maintain a safe arsenal; they had diverted money away from stockpile surveillance, which are basic, non-controversial steps to maintain a safe arsenal. So President Obama and Vice President Biden immediately took steps to make sure we were keeping our weapons safe by investing more money in a program that wasn’t necessarily part of the Prague agenda. It was just common sense: You don’t want weapons to be neglected. You don’t want them to risk going off, and you don’t want to have to risk having to return to nuclear testing.
But in 2010, President Obama made a series of commitments in order to convince the Senate to approve the New START treaty. And at that time, he committed to spending $88 billion over 10 years to modernize the arsenal. When I left government in 2012, it was already clear that the full scope of that modernization was going to be much bigger, but nobody had ever looked at exactly what that scope was going to be. And so, Jeff Lewis and I, along with our research assistant at [the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in] Monterey did that first analysis in 2014. And we came up with the number, based on the government’s own estimates, that it would cost $1 trillion over 30 years to modernize the [US nuclear] arsenal and maintain what we had.
At the time, we were criticized as being alarmist, anti-nuclear, padding the budget, and trying to attack the sustainment program. And there were also comments, and this is in the piece, that people said: “This is affordable. It’s a small fraction of the defense budget, and it’s historically very low.” They looked at what modernization had cost during the Reagan administration, and it was about 6 percent of the defense budget at the time. So, for them, this was going to be less than that.
Now, fast forward to the [April] report by the Congressional Budget Office, not only is $1 trillion low for a 30-year estimate, but we’re going to spend a trillion dollars in 10 years, because all of these programs turned out to be vastly more complicated and vastly more expensive. This is partly because of political decisions made by the first Trump administration to award these contracts before they were mature, to single-source contractors, and to bite off more than the defense industrial complex could chew. First, we have the [Sentinel] ICBM program, with an initial estimate of about $60 to $70 billion now running above $140 billion. Then, the B-21 bomber program is classified.[1] It was classified at the request of the late Senator John McCain. Therefore, we don’t even know what those budget costs are. And, quite frankly, I think the Congressional Budget Office probably underestimates what those costs are, because the Air Force has always wanted to exclude research and development costs.
Then, the [Columbia-class] submarine has been delayed for a number of reasons. I think that has probably less to do with programmatic mismanagement than with just real shortfalls in our defense industrial complex. And I don’t have the numbers right in front of me in terms of the sub growth, but there’s no doubt that the ICBM has been the poster child for cost overruns.
And then there was just a report in April that the B-52, the current nuclear bomber, has actually breached the Nunn-McCurdy guidelines, because it has exceeded the allowed cost overruns and is now considered an at-risk program. So the cost issue is not unique to any one program. The problem is that the Defense Department is trying to modernize every leg of the US nuclear deterrent at the same time, while also trying to build next-generation fighters and attack submarines, and to deal with repairs that are to the defense industrial base on the conventional side. But it just can’t do it all, and things are going to get more and more expensive.
Diaz-Maurin: You mentioned the B-52 bomber breaching the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which requires that the military services notify Congress when a program exceeds its appropriated cost or schedule. Last year, the Sentinel ICBM program also breached the Nunn-McCurdy Act with an unprecedented 37 percent growth in budget compared to previous estimates and at least a two-year schedule delay. But as far as I can know, nothing happened, and the program is likely to proceed. Does it mean that Congress has no say ultimately over such breaches?
Wolfsthal: Well, these are always questions of political will. Congress passed a law and under the Biden administration, the Nunn-McCurdy Act was followed. [After a breach], it requires the Defense Department to recertify that there are no alternatives for the program and that the necessary steps are being taken to move money from one part of the defense budget to meet the shortfall and to put the program on sound footing. In this case, it was the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Sustainment [William LaPlante] who certified the program under [Defense Secretary] Lloyd Austin and determined that there was no alternative, which I don’t believe to be true. Now we know that the Minuteman III can be extended. So that’s the alternative.[2]
Any assurances that the program was being put on sound footing are now completely blown away by the fact that they’re not even sure what silos they’re going to have: Do they need all new silos? Can they repurpose old silos like they’re going back to the drawing board on silos? Congress should take that certification and analyze it. Part of the problem is that the Nunn-McCurdy justification is classified and has not been released. In fact, the Federation of American Scientists has submitted a FOIA request for the Nunn-McCurdy certification, because we’d like to know what analysis went into trying to comply with the law. But as we’ve seen in this environment, the law is what judges say it is, and Congress would have to stand up for its political and legal rights, because they’re not going to just be handed them by the Trump administration.
Diaz-Maurin: What’s the alternative to the Sentinel ICBM program, exactly? And, generally speaking, are all nuclear modernization programs equally necessary for national security?
Wolfsthal: Those are exactly the right questions. And what we appear to be doing is saying, “we made a decision 10 years ago, and it’s impossible to revisit those decisions, and we have to keep doing this no matter what.” But that’s not the way nuclear strategy should be run, and the fact that they haven’t revisited basic concepts suggests to me that they’re just not interested in or capable of doing the hard work of managing this arsenal.
If the President determines—which is his right—that we need to maintain 400 warheads on ICBMs, there are lots of ways we can do that. During the Obama administration in 2016, we suggested that you could take the 200 most reliable Minuteman IIIs and simply put two warheads on each of them. You would cut the reliability risk of the ICBM program significantly, because you could take the most reliable, most modern of the Minuteman IIIs and maintain two warheads on each. This wouldn’t risk inviting an attack because Russia or China would still have to strike at 200 fixed land targets. So, you still would have the sponge and a very visible deterrent.[3] But that was rejected by the Air Force as unworkable, even though it turns out the Sentinel program is also unworkable.
Still, there are alternatives. For instance, could the United States go back to the drawing board and develop mobile ICBMs? Could the United States build a new ICBM, but fewer of them? Could the United States simply upload warheads to submarines and have fewer ICBMs? Back in 2018, there was an analysis done by Global Zero called “Alternative Nuclear Posture Review,” which talked about going to a [nuclear] dyad, with submarines and bombers only. So, there are lots of ways by which the United States could maintain a very robust nuclear deterrent and fighting force without having to spend $140 billion plus on a new ICBM, which likely will not be deployed for more than a decade, which I think is even a very optimistic timeline.
Diaz-Maurin: Going back to your piece, you seem to describe a systemic inability by the Defense Department to meet budget and schedule for its nuclear programs. What can be done to improve oversight of those programs?
Wolfsthal: These are hard things to do. It’s not as if I am sitting in a nice non-governmental office without government responsibility and saying that this is easy. These programs are difficult. But this is why we suggested in 2014 that these things are so hard; we shouldn’t be doing them all at the same time. Stagger them. Invest. Do the submarine first, because the submarine is necessary. They’re stabilizing. The defense capacity is there. Then, if you’re going to do the bomber, you know there are explanations for why you might want to do the conventional bomber first. Maybe you want to delay that program somewhat. But when it comes to the ICBM, this program could easily have been pushed out another decade.
I still think that there are lots of good reasons to say, especially if you’re going to have to extend the life of the Minuteman IIIs anyway: Stop the Sentinel program. Go back to the drawing board. Reevaluate how many warheads you need, which we’re going to have to do anyway as New START goes away. And then, figure out what’s the best, most reliable way to maintain those capabilities. Maybe that is a new ICBM, maybe that’s mobile, maybe it’s fixed. But buy yourself the five years necessary to figure out how to do this program, and in the meantime, get some of these other programs on a sound footing, because the same people that are managing the finances, the defense industrial base, the contracting, the long-lead-term procurement items, the defense contractors are doing all these programs. But there’s just only so much time in the day, and we’re facing now a trillion-dollar defense budget annually that is still not capable of doing the basic things that most people would say are necessary: maintaining a well-equipped, motivated military force, taking care of their health, buying modern communication, command, and control equipment, building resiliency, preparing for the future of warfare (whether it’s AI, cyber, non-kinetic), all those different things.
Very few people think that nuclear weapons are the most important thing that the Defense Department is doing. These weapons are, in many people’s views, necessary, but not the most important. And so, how do we right-size this investment? Maybe you stop some of the programs, and maybe you slow some of them down. But right now, there is no strategic prioritization taking place within the Defense Department. I don’t think that [Defense] Secretary Hegseth has a knowledge base on these issues, nor do I think that the people that he’s brought in under him have any experience with managing these nuclear systems. And the White House is not exercising control in that area. Therefore, the only option is for Congress to step up, and for the expert community, the civil society community, the Congressional Budget Offices of the world, to draw attention to this issue, to try to create momentum for some sound analysis and changes to put these programs on a better footing.
Diaz-Maurin: Let me play a little devil’s advocate here. Whenever there is a congressional hearing about threat assessment, you get experts and military officials testifying that the United States urgently needs to upgrade all three legs of its nuclear arsenal at the same time to respond to China’s growing nuclear ambitions and the likely end of strategic arms control with Russia. In their view, the full nuclear modernization program is a necessary insurance policy for national security. What would you tell them?
Wolfsthal: I would say that right now we have five legs of a nuclear arsenal, not three. We have submarines, ICBMs, and bombers, but we also have long-range cruise missiles and tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons. So, the United States already has more than a triad. What’s at risk is not whether we can maintain a nuclear deterrent, but whether we can maintain an effective nuclear deterrent by trying to buy new systems that will not be delivered on time, will not have the operational capability that they were originally designed to have, and that we will end up in disarmament or reductions either by default or by mismanagement. Therefore, the choice before us is not to maintain a great arsenal or to develop a super great arsenal. It is whether we can define a pathway to maintain a reasonable arsenal that can deter our adversaries and protect our allies, or whether we are going to drop off a cliff because we cannot effectively manage these programs. And that’s not me arguing that we can live with fewer nuclear weapons. It’s simply that we need a strategy. We then need to put capabilities and resources to work to achieve that strategy, be mindful about it, and be effective at it.
In 2009, I drafted part of the Prague speech for President Obama, and people tend to look only at one part of that speech or the other, but they rarely read the whole thing. What Obama said is that we should recommit ourselves to a world without nuclear weapons. But so long as nuclear weapons exist, they need to be safe, secure, and effective. Those two things go hand in hand, and right now, we’re on a pathway to neither pursue a world without nuclear weapons nor maintain a safe and effective nuclear arsenal. And as a result, we risk not getting either, and that is a recipe for real danger.
Diaz-Maurin: When we go back to the reliability issue across the legs, it all comes down to the reliability of the plutonium pits, the explosive core of nuclear weapons. As part of the US nuclear modernization, the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration has launched an ambitious program to produce new plutonium pits at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico and the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. But this program, too, is facing cost overruns and production challenges. What’s your view about this program?
Wolfsthal: First, I still rely on the 2006 study that was done by the JASON [advisory group], which concluded that our pits are likely to be reliable for at least 100 years. What this comes down to, however, is not the internal perceived reliability of an individual pit, or even of an individual missile or submarine. It is whether an adversary believes that the United States is capable and willing to launch nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or strategic threat to the United States or its allies? Because if they do, then it doesn’t matter if our weapons are 98 percent or 94 percent reliable. It simply matters that we have influenced our adversaries and our allies so they know that the US commitment is credible.
Our biggest challenge right now is not the technical reliability of our programs. The biggest problem is that nobody believes that President Trump would ever risk the security of the United States to protect its allies, and adversaries doubt seriously whether Trump would even launch US nuclear weapons in response to an attack by Russia or China because he’s trying to cut economic deals with as much as he is trying to deter them. So our problems are not going to be fixed financially. They need to be fixed politically.
Now, to the extent that we will need nuclear weapons to be credible until we can achieve some more stable outcome, we need to make sure we are not wasting money and spending these funds and scarce resources on programs that aren’t going to build what they are designed to build. Unfortunately, that’s pretty much what we are doing right now. We are not only trying to build an aircraft while we are flying it. We’re trying to build an aircraft while it’s doing a nosedive into the ground, and the trajectory is already set. The first rule of hole digging when you’re in one is to stop digging. And any reasonable analyst would look at the Sentinel ICBM program and say, “This has to go back to the drawing board.”
Diaz-Maurin: One final question before I wrap up this interview. President Trump just announced his plan to build a so-called Golden Dome missile defense project in three years at a cost of no more than $175 billion. Past the feasibility of building such a complex system in so little time, what do you make of its cost estimate?
Wolfsthal: Everything we have learned about missile defense over the last 50 years is being ignored by the Trump administration. Their estimates are easily off by an order of magnitude, and any protection they provide will be so limited as to be almost insignificant. Moreover, pursuing a Golden Dome missile defense will drive our adversaries to build more missiles, more maneuverable missiles, and rely on decoys, enabling them to render any national defense ineffective. These funds would be much better spent on other defense and non-defense priorities. The idea that we will build any kind of effective defense in the next three years is simply a fantasy.
Notes
[1] The B-21 bomber is expected to enter service by 2027 to gradually replace the B-1B and B-2 bombers through the 2030s. In total, the Air Force is expected to procure at least 100 B-21 bombers.
[2] Some current Minuteman III ICBMs will likely have to be life-extended to make up for the delay in the new Sentinel ICBM program.
[3] The “nuclear sponge” is a concept that illustrates how silos would absorb hundreds of Russian (or Chinese) missiles and warheads to destroy the United States’ ICBM silos before these adversaries can launch an attack on other targets.
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’s ALL NUCLEAR DAILY DIGEST” RELATED MEDIA
There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War Threats
Nuclear War
Yellowstone Caldera & Other Volcanoes (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in today’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
14:54 · Go to channel. Putin’s nuclear war would have fatal impacts for Russia | Former UK defence attaché to Moscow. Times Radio New 3.4K views · 8: …
