“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 31, 2024

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LAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Thursday, (10/31/2024)

Following is the most detailed Elon Musk/Starlink story I have read, If you are concerned about Musk’s penchant for launching communications satellites, and creating controversy, you will want to read this story — not that doing so will allay your concerns in any way. And, then, too, there are other concerns, including environmental issues relating to Musk’s satellite enterprise. But his actions at the time may have helped to at least temporarily delay the beginning of a nuclear war . . .

Musk is a loose cannon and his independence and aggressive actions along with his alliances in high political places reminds me a bit of the old film Dr. Strangelove. (You have to watch the movie to understand, but the Soviet Union with the help of a nuclear bomb is the target there as well. And then there is a Trump-like General Jack Ripper, another interesting character, who personally deploys the bomb in an odd manner.)

If this important Forbes story contributed by Kevin Holden Platt story is nothing else, it is informative and thought-provoking — and entertaining as well. ~llaw

Russian Threats To Elon Musk And Strikes On SpaceX Dishes Skyrocket

Kevin Holden Platt

Contributor

Kevin Holden Platt writes on space defense, SpaceX, ISS, Space War I

Oct 30, 2024,09:35pm EDT

Updated Oct 31, 2024, 01:02pm EDT

While The Wall Street Journal has been blasting out its bombshell story that Elon Musk has had “secret conversations” with Vladimir Putin for the last two years, this same timeline has been marked by the Kremlin’s unending barrage of threats against SpaceX’s founder, and military assaults on his Starlink satellite terminals crisscrossing Ukraine.

These threats have ranged from dark hints of assassinating Musk – from the same Kremlin cabal that has despatched henchmen armed with radioactive polonium, or the Soviet chemical weapon Novichok, to deal with political enemies – to cascading warnings that Russian missiles could be fired at SpaceX satellites circling the globe.

They started right after Russia’s blitzkrieg assault on Ukraine in February of 2022, when SpaceX’s founder began airlifting hundreds, then thousands, then tens of thousands of Starlink transceivers to the besieged democracy, even as Russia escalated its missile attacks to wipe out the country’s internet infrastructure. Activating his rings of satellites above the globe, Musk foiled Moscow’s plan to imprison Ukraine inside a bomb-backed Iron Curtain.

The Kremlin’s rulers were furious.

Their revenge started when the head of the Russian space agency – who also oversaw building Moscow’s intercontinental ballistic missiles – threatened Musk with personal retribution for supplying Ukraine’s “fascist forces” with satellite-beamed Web connections.

The SpaceX leader reacted with macabre humor: “If I die under mysterious circumstances,” Musk posted on Twitter, “it’s been nice knowin ya.”

The combative deputy defense minister elevated by Putin to reign over Roscosmos had lashed out at the creator of the planet’s greatest constellation of satellites for allowing Ukraine’s armed defenders to link up nationwide via their hyper-tech, ultra-mobile SpaceX Starlink dishes.

“It turns out that the internet terminals of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite company were delivered to the militants … by military helicopters,” Dmitry Rogozin, then Director General of Roscosmos, charged in a fantastical falsehood. “The delivery of the Starlink equipment was carried out by the Pentagon. Elon Musk, thus, is involved in supplying the fascist forces in Ukraine with military communication equipment. And for this, Elon, you will be held accountable.”

So started the fusillade of threats against Musk that would explode over the next two years – from Kremlin calls to deploy anti-satellite missiles against his mega-constellation to warning the use of Starlinks to stage attacks on occupied Crimea could impel Russia to detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine.

Since then, Moscow has deployed advanced Su-34 fighter bombers, Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems and Lancet kamikaze drones to seek out and destroy Starlink transceivers across Ukraine.

Yet in a story that has ricocheted around the world, The Wall Street Journal reported last week that: “Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022.”

In the dramatically titled “Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin,” the five WSJ reporters who penned the article didn’t identify any of their sources by name or even government title, rather citing “several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials.”

“Knowledge of Musk’s Kremlin contacts appears to be a closely held secret in government,” they reported. “Several White House officials said they weren’t aware of them.”

“One person aware of the conversations,” they wrote, conceded that “no alerts have been raised by the administration over possible security breaches by Musk.”

As a whirlwind of press reports based on the WSJ article swept across the continents, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida issued a statement criticizing Musk’s trial by media: “Anybody who has contracts with the U.S. government undergoes a constant review for security background and clearances.”

“I will tell you that without SpaceX, I don’t know how we’re going to rescue our astronauts that are stuck in space,” Senator Rubio stated. “All that said, I can’t opine on whether Musk called Putin or not, because I don’t know, and he’s a private citizen. If that imperils his clearance, there’s a process for all of that. It’s not through the media ….”

One reporter probably has closer insights than anyone else on Musk’s attempts to shield himself and SpaceX from the bombardment of Kremlin threats while balancing his dealings with the major players in the life and death struggle over the Ukraine invasion: Walter Isaacson, Musk’s hand-picked biographer, became embedded in the SpaceX inner circle for two years as he crafted his blockbuster book Elon Musk, even as Russian tanks and missile brigades began crashing across the border to spearhead their invasion.

Isaacson, who’s scripted a series of bestselling bios on world-changing figures like Albert Einstein and Steve Jobs, reveals in the memoir that late one evening in September of 2022, Musk frantically contacted him to tell him about Russia’s just-issued threat to explode a nuclear warhead in Ukraine – in revenge for a planned attack using submarine drones, guided by Starlink technology, against the Russian fleet stationed in occupied Crimea.

In an excerpt from the book, “The untold story of Elon Musk’s support for Ukraine,” published in the Washington Post, Isaacson disclosed that Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, had just warned Musk the Kremlin would use the most powerful weapons in its arsenal if the drone subs hit its navy.

“The ambassador had explicitly told him [Musk] that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response,” Isaacson recounted.

Musk, in turn, refused Ukrainian appeals to extend the coverage of the Starlink system to reach Crimea’s port, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, to carry out the planned Pearl Harbor-style assault.

While engaging in backstage diplomacy with the Russian envoy to forestall a nuclear strike, Musk also shot off an urgent message – via Twitter – to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky:“Trying to retake Crimea will cause massive death, probably fail & risk nuclear war.”

The SpaceX leader also rushed to brief White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and General Mark Milley, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the looming crisis, Isaacson reported.

At that time, President Joe Biden and his security team projected that the likelihood of Russia unleashing a nuclear bomb in Ukraine had risen sharply, according to reporting by The New York Times.

“President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, including during a crisis in October 2022, when Mr. Biden and his aides, looking at intercepts of conversations between senior Russian commanders, feared the likelihood of nuclear use might rise to 50 percent or even higher,” the Times reported.

Could Musk’s moves to deescalate the conflict, via his backchannel talks with Ambassador Antonov and limits on the use of Starlinks by Ukraine’s democratic resistance, have been one factor in tipping the balance in favor of Russia freezing its plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons?

Musk came under fire in the U.S. for placing limits on Ukraine’s weaponization of Starlink navigation and guidance technology, but it remains a puzzle whether that helped prevent a Russian nuclear strike.

His placing territorial restrictions on the use of SpaceX Starlink technology by Ukraine’s resistance paralleled the White House ban on using American weapons to hit targets inside Russia, says Ron Gurantz, an associate professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Professor Gurantz, an expert on space power and security, states in a paper for the U.S. Army’s Strategic Studies Institute that Musk “decided not to activate Starlink because he worried such an attack could cause escalation, or perhaps even nuclear war, between Russia and the United States.”

“Would the US government have made the same decision?”

The U.S. had similarly held back on supplying Ukraine with weapons that could reach Crimea, Professor Gurantz reported in his fascinating, just-released study, “Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War.”

“Moreover, recent reports suggest the Biden-Harris administration was extremely worried at the time about a scenario in which a Ukrainian offensive against Crimea could provoke Russia to use nuclear weapons.”

“The decision to limit Starlink,” Gurantz concluded, “may not have been different if government officials had been involved.”

Check out my website. 

Kevin Holden Platt

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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Thursday, (10/31/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

North Korea launches new intercontinental ballistic missile designed to threaten U.S. | Utah …

Utah Public Radio

All Things Considered. UPR Live. All Things Considered … They say North Korea likely possesses short-range missiles that can deliver nuclear strikes …

Meet America’s secret team of nuclear first responders | Georgia Public Broadcasting

Georgia Public Broadcasting

Members of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team training for a radiological contamination scenario. For 50 years, the secretive team has been the …

Japanese nuclear reactor that survived earthquake power plant restarts – Spectrum News

Spectrum News

TOKYO (AP) — A Japanese nuclear reactor which survived a massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami that badly damaged the nearby Fukushima nuclear power …

Nuclear Power=

NEWS

Nuclear power is coming back – and that could be a win for older workers | Morningstar

Morningstar

By Joseph Coughlin. The revival of nuclear power – and the push for clean energy – may depend on keeping older workers online for longer.

Five Ways the Tech Sector’s Embrace of Nuclear Power Benefits America

RealClearEnergy

Recent announcements by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that they are dedicating billions of dollars to consume nuclear power and invest in the next …

Entergy mulls expanding US nuclear power capacity, execs say – Reuters

Reuters

Entergy is considering expanding its nuclear power generation capacity and exploring new nuclear technologies, with the Louisiana electric utility …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

TEPCO ex-chair at time of Fukushima nuclear disaster dies at 84 while on trial over responsibility

ABC News – The Walt Disney Company

Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings’ former chairperson, who led the emergency response after a meltdown at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant …

Lessons from the past helped make atomic reactors cleaner and safer

Malaya Business Insight

In response, international nuclear agencies and governments adopted stringent standards for reactor design, operator training, and emergency protocols …

Nuclear War

NEWS

UK urged to break with France, North Korea and Russia on UN nuclear war resolution

The Guardian

Non-proliferation groups call on government not to oppose creation of a study into effects of nuclear conflict.

NTI Statement in Support of the UN Resolution on Nuclear War Effects and Scientific Research

The Nuclear Threat Initiative

Global systems are interdependent in ways that generate potential for cascading effects, which in case of a nuclear war could impact populations …

The Federation of American Scientists Urges Support of UN Draft Resolution on Nuclear War Effects

Federation of American Scientists

… nuclear war. “Whether people support or oppose nuclear weapons, they deserve to know what the consequences of nuclear use are. An independent fact …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

NTI Statement in Support of the UN Resolution on Nuclear War Effects and Scientific Research

The Nuclear Threat Initiative

These insights are essential not only for informed nuclear policy and decision-making but also to educate citizens around the world about the risks of …

Takeaways from AP story on Ukrainian schools built underground to guard against bombs …

AP News

Since the start of the war, Russia has repeatedly alluded to its nuclear weapons stockpile without leveling direct threats. In September, Russian …

Russian Threats To Elon Musk And Strikes On SpaceX Dishes Skyrocket – Forbes

Forbes

The Kremlin has repeatedly threatened to detonate nuclear weapons … nuclear war.” The SpaceX leader also rushed to brief White House 

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Erta Ale Volcano (Ethiopia): Violent Lava Overflow Episode from Summit Vent

Volcano Discovery

List and interactive map of current and past earthquakes near Yellowstone volcano.

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 30, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Wednesday, (10/30/2024)

I love the opening paragraph in this article from “NPR” . . . It echoes my own thoughts and concerns exactly. And then there is the 2nd article I have added on to this one today that makes one wonder if ‘Big Tech’ and their “AI” want to power-up the new style SMRs (Small Modular Reactors), not with the limited typical 5% nuclear fuel of the past, but with up to 20% nuclear fuel, or, in other words, nuclear bomb power potential. Apparently technical data corporations have lost control of their sanity, or AI has already taken over . . . ~llaw

Article 1: (from the Article: Why does this sound like the plot to some end of the world movie where AI and nuclear power get together?

Tech companies look to renewable energy to power AI

By Dara Kerr,

A Martínez

Published October 29, 2024 at 3:28 AM MDT

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

There is an arms race for artificial intelligence. Every major tech company is working on it. The downside? Well, AI uses a lot of energy, far more than your typical web search. Now some companies are planning to bring back a surprising source of energy – nuclear power. NPR tech reporter Dara Kerr is here to talk about it. Dara, why does this sound like the plot to some end of the world movie where AI and nuclear power get together?

DARA KERR, BYLINE: Yes, this is about AI’s energy usage, and all the companies are working on AI right now, and it just eats up power. For example, a ChatGPT query uses about 10 times as much energy as a Google search. And that energy mostly comes from traditional power plants, which, as we know, are highly polluting. And they release greenhouse gases into the air. So the tech companies are looking at alternative power sources to help fuel their AI. Earlier this month, Amazon and Google both announced they’re investing in small nuclear reactors. And another big tech company, Microsoft, says it’s planning to revive Three Mile Island. You remember Three Mile Island, right? It’s that power plant in Pennsylvania that infamously had a partial meltdown in the ’70s.

MARTÍNEZ: I do remember Three Mile Island. Wow. So why are they doing this?

KERR: All of the tech companies say they’re doing this to help meet their climate goals. All of the top five tech companies have the ambitious goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2030. That includes Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook parent Meta. So nuclear energy doesn’t release greenhouse gases. It also doesn’t burn fossil fuels like coal and gas, and fossil fuels are the primary driver of climate change. And unlike other renewable energies such as wind and solar, nuclear delivers a lot of energy all of the time. And that’s important to these companies who need huge amounts of power 24/7 to feed their AI.

MARTÍNEZ: So it sounds like a good thing for addressing climate change. I mean, how long will all this take?

KERR: That’s the thing, A. It’s expected to take at least a decade or even more. Building nuclear reactors or reviving old ones like Three Mile Island is expensive and time-consuming. They’re heavily regulated to ensure safety, and that means everything takes a while. And these small, modular power plants that Amazon and Google are looking at are really a different kind of technology. We don’t have any operating in the U.S. yet. I spoke to Ivy Main, who’s been researching the energy usage of data centers for years. She says she’s skeptical of these companies’ plans.

IVY MAIN: One of the problems here is that the demand is now. And these small, modular reactors, assuming they pan out, are 10 years from now. So this is a situation of, I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

KERR: Main says a fix for AI energy consumption needs to come now, not in several years.

MARTÍNEZ: I love the Wimpy reference from the Popeye cartoons. Now, you know, in the meantime, are tech companies looking at other types of renewable energy?

KERR: Yes. So all of the major tech companies use solar and wind power in at least some of their data centers, but solar and wind aren’t reliable 24/7. They’re also looking at other types of renewables. Google, for example, is working with a startup in Nevada that uses geothermal heat as an energy source. But a lot of these companies’ climate change commitments came before the AI boom. Both Google and Microsoft say their emissions have skyrocketed over the last couple of years, and they attribute that specifically to AI. And that’s the tension, A. These data centers that fuel AI are creating a lot of pollution right now, and the proposed solutions are years on the horizon.

MARTÍNEZ: That’s NPR’s Dara Kerr. Thank you very much.

KERR: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF THE AMERICAN ANALOG SET “(THEME FROM) EVERYTHING ENDS”) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Dara Kerr

Dara Kerr is a tech reporter for NPR. She examines the choices tech companies make and the influence they wield over our lives and society.

A Martínez

A Martínez is one of the hosts of Morning Edition and Up First. He came to NPR in 2021 and is based out of NPR West.

Article 2: (Whoever said nuclear fuel is “clean” doesn’t have a clue. It is the most dirty and dangerous fuel on planet Earth. It is the stuff of nuclear bombs . . . llaw)

Oklo CEO wants to make clean nuclear energy more accessible

Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton

Tue, October 29, 2024 at 1:47 PM PDT

Energy and power grid constraints look to be the biggest hurdles for Big Tech to overcome in the industry’s wider buildout of AI data center infrastructure. Tech players have begun investing in nuclear energy developers to find the clean energy output needed to power these expansions.

Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is one of these names benefitting from the trend, its stock having jumped nearly 200% over the past month. The nuclear startup is backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who is also Oklo’s chairman.

Oklo Co-Founder and CEO Jake DeWitte joins Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton on Market Domination to talk about the long-term investments in small modular reactors (SMR) and the intricacies of these systems; Oklo doesn’t expect to finish building its first SMR and producing power from it until 2027.

“When you split an atom, you get almost 50 million-times more energy than when you combust like a molecule of natural gas or so. It’s incredible,” DeWitte tells Yahoo Finance. “What that means, then, is there’s a lot of energy in nuclear fuel. And actually in almost all reactors, you only use about 5% of the fuel in one pass through the reactor. And there’s reasons why long story short, is you could put more fuel in, it could run for longer. But that comes at increased cost for the added systems you would need to manage all that.”

US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm told Yahoo Finance that her department’s focus will be on ensuring these AI data centers are powered by clean energy, while understanding the challenge in widespread SMR adoption: “Nobody wants to be the one to buy the first one.”

Oklo has already inked energy partnerships with date center providersw Equinix (EQIX) and Wyoming Hyperscale. DeWitte describes the regular business model for nuclear systems as “clunky.”

“One of the things that we set out to do in the beginning was, was make it easier to buy what people really want from nuclear systems, in other words, make it easier to buy nuclear power because the clean, reliable, affordable power, that’s the stuff people really want,” DeWitte explains.

“We’re unique because we actually make that easy — we design, we own, we operate the plants, we contract someone to build them, and then we just sell the power out to the customers through off-take agreements. That makes it easy for them to buy what they want.”

For more coverage on Big Tech’s adoption of nuclear energy, catch Yahoo Finance’s respective interviews with X-energy CEO Clay Sell about Amazon’s (AMZN) investment into the nuclear reactor designer and Kairos Power Co-Founder and CEO Mike Laufer’s input on the nuclear startup’s partnership with Alphabet’s Google (GOOG, GOOGL).

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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Wednesday, (10/30/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Meet America’s secret team of nuclear first responders – NPR

NPR

NEST has always kept a low profile, partially because almost everything it does related to nuclear weapons and nuclear terrorism is classified, but …

Tech companies look to renewable energy to power AI – KSJD

KSJD

All Streams. Home · About · KSJD · Sunflower Theatre · Community Radio … There’s been a lot of talk about nuclear, but those projects are years …

Oklo CEO wants to make clean nuclear energy more accessible – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

… nuclear fuel. And actually in almost all reactors, you only use about 5% of the fuel in one pass through the reactor. And there’s reasons why long …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

At Three Mile Island, a Test of Nuclear Power’s Promise – The New York Times

The New York Times

The Pennsylvania plant, site of the worst U.S. nuclear energy accident, is at the forefront of efforts to expand nuclear capacity to meet rising …

Czech watchdog prohibits nuclear power contract signing amid appeals – Reuters

Reuters

The Czechs plan to use the new nuclear power units, together with small modular reactors and renewable sources, to replace a fleet of coal-fired …

Tech companies are showing a new, strong interest in nuclear power. Here’s why.

Atlantic Council

Earlier this month, Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google announced partnerships and investments in advanced nuclear reactor developers.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Explained: What Is US Financial Emergency That SpaceX Founder Elon Musk Is Talking About

ETV Bharat

… emergencies separately. Under Article 352, if … Explained: How Navy’s 4th Nuclear–Powered Submarine Launch Enhances India’s Strategic Sea Power.

Troops join emergency responders in search for missing after flash floods in Valencia, Spain

Explore SE Iowa

More than 1,000 troops had been deployed to the province to help with the emergency response, the Military Emergencies … nuclear power plant · Explore …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Putin Holds Strategic Nuclear Drills Days Before US Election – Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw strategic nuclear drills a week before the US presidential election, boasting of improved capabilities …

Investigating the Climate Impacts of Nuclear War | National Security Archive

National Security Archive – The George Washington University

UPDATESee the original June 2, 2022, posting below this updateWashington, D.C., October 30, 2024 – A 1983 study from scientists at the Department …

Russia fires missiles to simulate ‘massive’ response to a nuclear attack – CNA

CNA

MOSCOW: Russia test-fired missiles over distances of thousands of miles on Tuesday (Oct 29) to simulate a “massive” nuclear response to an enemy …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Russia’s Putin launches drill of nuclear forces simulating strikes – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

“Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern and constantly ready-to- …

Russia Simulates ‘Massive’ Nuclear Response to Enemy Attack – The Moscow Times

The Moscow Times

“In light of rising geopolitical tensions and emerging external threats, it is essential to have modern and combat-ready strategic forces,” the …

Russia fires missiles to simulate ‘massive’ response to a nuclear attack

South China Morning Post

… nuclear response to an enemy first strike. Advertisement. “Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks 

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Often overlooked, West Thumb Geyser Basin is one of Yellowstone’s most scenic spaces

Idaho Capital Sun

The caldera is relatively small by Yellowstone standards and is nested within the much larger 47 x 29 miles, 631,000-year-old Yellowstone Caldera.

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 29, 2024

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A NEST AgustaWestland 139 helicopter equipped with special radiation monitoring equipment on display during the team’s 50th anniversary celebration at Joint Base Andrews. The helicopters, which measure radiation by flying low and slowly, are deliberately painted with a civilian color scheme to avoid the “black helicopter” stereotype.

LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Tuesday, (10/29/2024)

In addition to the following article on secret nuclear health and safety investigations, there is another story in today’s blog that will emphasize that this job will become an international effort of great importance if SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are eventually spread around the world, especially dealing with the control of nuclear terrorism, that I discussed in my recent post #792 on on Saturday, October 26th, concerning tyrannical and terrorist elements as well as avoiding a “black market” for nuclear fuel, all of which goes far beyond health and safety, and which is already more than enough danger to humanity. ~llaw

The related story, which offers the potential ‘bright side’ of SMR nuclear energy without considering the more-than-obvious ‘dark side’, link is available in the Nuclear Power section of TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Tuesday, (10/29/2024), from You Tube titled, Small modular reactors could give developing countries access to nuclear energy

Meet America’s secret team of nuclear first responders

October 29, 20246:00 AM ET

Geoff Brumfiel

Members of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team training for a radiological contamination scenario. For 50 years, the secretive team has been the first line of defense against nuclear emergencies.

NNSA

In an aircraft hangar at Joint Base Andrews, just outside of Washington, DC, one of the government’s most secretive groups gathered recently to celebrate its 50th anniversary.

Though there were drinks, cake and speeches, right from the start, it was clear this was not an ordinary birthday party.

“Please note that this is an unclassified event, so please understand that there is a lot that our people are not going to be able to discuss,” Rick Christensen, the director of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s office of nuclear incident response told the small crowd sitting in folding chairs.

The group is known as the Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST). It’s made primarily of people who work elsewhere in the government—scientists, federal law enforcement personnel, and regulators—who all take time out of their day jobs to prepare for a nuclear incident. Think of it as a volunteer fire department – except the volunteers have high-level security clearances and they respond to nuclear threats.

NEST has always kept a low profile because almost everything it does related to nuclear weapons and nuclear terrorism is classified, and because it doesn’t want to alarm people. 

But in an era when the Pentagon says the world is facing new nuclear threats and challenges, the group is trying to be slightly more open about its mission.

“We are always ready, 24-7, and always prepared to deploy,” says Wendin Smith, the Deputy Under Secretary for Counterterrorism and Counterproliferation at the Department of Energy, which runs NEST. She hopes talking more openly about the mission might help people feel more assured, as well as deter adversaries who may be out to cause nuclear mayhem.

Cold War origin story

The history of the team sounds like it belongs in a spy thriller.

It all began in 1974, when a person going by the name “Captain Midnight” threatened to set off a nuclear bomb somewhere in Boston unless they were paid $200,000.

Government scientists from the nation’s nuclear weapons laboratories rushed to an airbase near Boston, but missed flights and problems with their equipment meant they never actually entered the city. The crisis ended when the FBI left a bag containing phony bills at the ransom spot, but nobody came. The incident was deemed a hoax, according to the 2009 book Defusing Armageddon, which details the history of the NEST group.

Then-president Gerald Ford was appalled, and six months later the government created NEST to aid in the response to, “lost or stolen nuclear weapons and special nuclear materials, nuclear bomb threats, and radiation dispersal threats,” according to the secret memorandum that set up the team.

It quickly found work. In 1978, NEST deployed in Canada’s remote Northwest Territories to recover debris from a crashed Soviet reconnaissance satellite that was powered by uranium. A year later, NEST helicopters circled over the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, after one of the plant’s reactors partially melted down. At the time, little was known about how much radiation had leaked from the plant, and it was NEST who helped collect the necessary data to guide evacuation orders.

In 2011, NEST experts and equipment flew to Fukushima, Japan, after a nuclear power plant there melted down and spewed a plume of radioactivity across the countryside.

The mission was “to help the Japanese government understand what is being released from the damaged reactors, and where is that plume going, where is it deposited on the ground,” says Jay Tilden, the DOE’s head of intelligence and counterintelligence who until recently ran NEST.

NEST does more than survey areas for radioactivity. Teams also train to search for and disarm nuclear weapons that are lost or damaged. And they learn how to evaluate other terrorist threats—for example, using nuclear material to make a so-called “dirty bomb.”

There’s less that can be openly discussed about those missions, but, Tilden says, NEST doesn’t want to be seen as a shadowy government agency flying around in black helicopters. In fact, when the group purchased new helicopters a few years ago, he explicitly avoided the color.

A NEST AgustaWestland 139 helicopter equipped with special radiation monitoring equipment on display during the team’s 50th anniversary celebration at Joint Base Andrews. The helicopters, which measure radiation by flying low and slowly, are deliberately painted with a civilian color scheme to avoid the “black helicopter” stereotype.

NNSA

“We didn’t even want them dark gray because they look military,” he says. “We wanted to be very distinct. We’re a civil agency and when those aircraft are flying they’re flying largely for a public health and safety mission.”

The aircraft have a two-toned, blue-and-gray color scheme, and the government agents who fly them around aren’t exactly men in black either. They are folks like Jacqueline Brandon, a physical chemist who works as a mission manager for NEST.

“When I found out as a scientist I get to fly in a helicopter and do real national security missions, I was like, ‘sign me up right away!’ ” Brandon recalls.

Her job is to sit in the back of the helicopter scanning for signs of radioactivity as the helicopter flies low to the ground.

“To me it’s like a rollercoaster ride, I love it,” she says.

Constantly watching

She’s airborne a lot. This year alone, NEST aircraft have flown above the Super Bowl, the Boston Marathon and both Democratic and Republican National Conventions. Part of their job is to monitor large events like these even when there’s no specific threat.

And then there’s the calls they haven’t planned for.

“They happen periodically,” she says. When they do, “we’ll pack up all of our gear and be up and be in the air in four hours and flying over whatever we’re trying to fly over.”

Brandon didn’t want to get into too many specifics about what might spur a NEST team into action, but Smith, the current head of NEST, was willing to talk in broad strokes.

NEST scientist Jacqueline Brandon displays radiation detection equipment inside one of NEST’s helicopters. “When I found out as a scientist I get to fly in a helicopter and do real national security missions, I was like sign me up right away,” she says.

G. Brumfiel/NPR

“We don’t provide the details but I would say on a weekly basis there’s either an unknown event that triggers the deployment of a NEST team or a question from a local responder,” she says.

Smith says nuclear materials are more a part of daily life than most people may realize. They’re used in oil and gas drilling, and in a lot of medical applications. Sometimes people are even injected with radioactive dye to aid with medical imaging.

In fact, somebody with radioactive dye in their body caused a recent NEST response. A team was called out after local police found a radioactive puddle in a fast food parking lot somewhere in America.

Smith says they quickly identified the source. “If somebody doesn’t use a public restroom and happens to alleviate their need in a parking lot, then that can cause a troubled signature if there is indeed an isotope, a medical isotope involved,” she says.

Of course NEST prepares for far worse. Smith is less open about those dark scenarios, but she says, “the fact that people understand that NEST exists…is important to help people sleep at night.”

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus story available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Tuesday, (10/29/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Meet America’s secret team of nuclear first responders – NPR

NPR

NEST has always kept a low profile because almost everything it does related to nuclear weapons and nuclear terrorism is classified, and because it …

Starting a nuclear reactor: It’s all in the preparation and slow and careful actions (Part 1)

ANSTO

Reactor operators and shift supervisors, including Shift Engineer Simon Thomas, complete this startup sequence routinely to achieve criticality. Read …

Israeli Strikes Knocked Out All Of Iran’s S-300 Air Defense Systems: Officials – The War Zone

The War Zone

The apparent destruction of the last three Iranian S-300s would pave the way for expanded Israeli airstrikes. The apparent destruction of the last …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

What it will take to restart decommissioned US nuclear plants. A primer

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Nuclear plant restarts at Palisades and Three Mile Island Unit 1 are a test case for the future of the US nuclear industry, a former assistant …

Small modular reactors could give developing countries access to nuclear energy

YouTube

Experts say small modular reactors, called SMRs, are bringing affordable nuclear energy to less wealthy countries. But what are SMRs and why are …

Japanese nuclear reactor which survived earthquake that badly damaged Fukushima power …

ABC News – The Walt Disney Company

… nuclear energy to provide stable power and reduce carbon emissions. The No. 2 reactor at the Onagawa nuclear power plant on Japan’s northern coast …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Meet America’s secret team of nuclear first responders – NPR

NPR

… nuclear emergencies. … A year later, NEST helicopters circled over the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, after one of the plant’s reactors …

Full-scale nuclear emergency exercise set for October 29 and 30 – City of Saint John

City of Saint John

On behalf of NB Power NB Power, in partnership with the New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization (NBEMO), will conduct Synergy 2024, …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Russia Simulates ‘Massive’ Nuclear Response to Enemy Attack – The Moscow Times

The Moscow Times

Russia’s military test-fired ballistic missiles across the country Tuesday to simulate a “massive” nuclear response to an attack on the country.

“Most Difficult Stage”: Russia Begins Nuclear Drill, West Plans Response – NDTV

NDTV

Russia’s nuclear forces today began a special exercise after orders were received from President Vladimir Putin. The move comes at a critical …

Russia drill simulates “massive nuclear strike” in response to enemy attack, Moscow says

CBS News

Nuclear submarines test-fired ICBMs, while nuclear-capable bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles, …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Confronting the Threats Posed by Threats of Nuclear Use | Arms Control Association

Arms Control Association

Confronting the Threats Posed by Threats of Nuclear Use. Arms … dangers of nuclear war must be avoided. For example, Washington should …

Russia fires missiles to simulate ‘massive’ response to a nuclear attack | Reuters

Reuters

… nuclear response to an enemy first strike. “Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is …

Why the World Needs a New UN Study on the Effects of Nuclear War

Union of Concerned Scientists

The nuclear war consequence models maintained by the Defense Threat … threats from its international bodies; an example is the ..

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

West Thumb Geyser Basin: Diverse and Exceptional Hot Springs, Mud … – National Parks Traveler

National Parks Traveler

The caldera is relatively small by Yellowstone standards and is nested within the much larger 75x 45 km (47 x 29 miles), 631,000-year-old Yellowstone …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 28, 2024

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Image of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during an IAEA visit in 2023: IAEA Imagebank/Flickr.

LAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Monday, (10/28/2024)

During the two years that I’ve been constantly railing about the inevitability of nuclear power plants “magically” becoming nuclear war weapons of mass destruction, this is the first responsible public article (other than reports from the IAEA) to my knowledge to echo my fears.

This extremely critically dangerous situation that the greater news media and the entire nuclear world remains oblivious to, or perhaps fiscally unwilling to report on, the nuclear war associated-implications. Instead they simply stick to the nuclear “accident” excuses. Anyone who knows anything about nuclear power plants clearly understands, whether they will admit it or not, that nuclear power plants are sitting ducks waiting to be used as weapons of mass destruction in nuclear war . . .

These well-voiced concerns come from Australia, historically one of the most anti-nuclear countries on the planet along with its territorial neighbor, New Zealand. These countries have always had their common sense about “all things nuclear” in high gear, and I hope they keep it forefront in their minds as Australia considers the idea of allowing commercial nuclear power plants in their country. ~llaw

War risks from nuclear power plants? Just look at Zaporizhzhia

28 Oct 2024|Henry CampbellRussia–Ukraine war

Proposals for nuclear power in Australia will have to take national security risks into account.

As evidenced in an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report released in September, Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine continues to create high risk of a nuclear disaster. In considering future conflicts, no one can safely assume that an enemy will avoid targeting nuclear power stations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons and new nuclear doctrine are alarming. But, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned at the United Nations on 25 September, the immediate nuclear risk is at Zaporizhzhia.

The Zaporizhzhia plant has been on or near the frontline since the Russian invasion in February 2022, exposed to nearby combat and, since Russian seizure in March 2022, dangerous mismanagement. There is significant risk of an accidental or intentional nuclear incident at the plant.

It is no longer tenable to argue that nuclear power plants are protected in conflicts by taboo. This must be considered as the Australian Liberal-National opposition proposes building seven major nuclear power plants and two small modular reactors in Australia.

The IAEA, the global nuclear watchdog, has been clear on the risks associated with the Zaporizhzhia plant. As established in the most recent and earlier reports, Russia’s actions during the conflict have either partially or fully compromised all seven of the IAEA’s ‘indispensable pillars’ of nuclear security. Notably, this framework was developed only in response to the invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s unprecedented wartime targeting and occupation of nuclear facilities.

Physical integrity (Pillar 1) and safety and security systems (Pillar 2) have been compromised by damage to the plant from direct attacks and nearby combat. The plant was first shelled in March 2022 when Russia seized control. More recently, on 27 June, an external radiation monitoring system 16km away was destroyed by shelling—which also compromised radiation monitoring and emergency preparedness (Pillar 6).

Drone strikes targeted the plant in April and July, and IAEA monitoring teams at the plant reported nearby explosions as recently as September. In August, fires at the plant coincided with the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, with large amounts of smoke billowing from a cooling tower.

In 2023, Russia conducted unauthorised structural changes and Russian forces even stored explosives in proximity to a nuclear reactor. Additionally, anti-personnel mines were also laid between the plant’s inner and outer fences in 2022, and more mines were laid in January 2024.

The capacity of operating staff, (Pillar 3) has been affected by the treatment of Ukrainian employees at the plant, including physical violence and torture, some fatal, by occupying Russian military and security forces. Workers have also been denied access to critical security systems and exposed to high stress. The chain of command has become unclear, resulting in conflicting messages to workers.

Shelling and other damage to the nearby city of Enerhodar has left workers and their families in poor living conditions, intermittently without power or fresh water supply. By early 2024, Ukrainian employees were reportedly no longer permitted at the facility. It is now operating with a personnel shortage: the plant has about 5000 workers, down from the pre-war peak of 11,000. In May, remaining staff were reporting severe psychological stress.

Russia has also weakened the facility’s necessary off-site power supply (Pillar 4). Since Russia tried to connect it to the Russian energy grid, the plant has lost three 750kV power lines and five of its 330kV backup power lines. It now operates with one of each and has suffered eight complete losses of off-site power. External power supply is essential to secure operation of the plant and continued operation of safety systems. In early 2024, the plant went 23 consecutive days without a backup connection.

As for Pillar 5 (an uninterrupted supply chain), the IAEA has reported the plant’s fragile logistics for spare or replacement parts and safety equipment. This is in part due to reliance on equipment from Western suppliers. Pillar 7, the requirement for reliable communications, has been compromised by the limitations on communication between the plant and the Ukrainian energy grid operator.

Additional threats have come from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023, an event that is widely attributed to Russia. This reduced water supply to the Zaporizhzhia plant for cooling reactors and spent fuel.

Russia has targeted other Ukrainian nuclear facilities, too. The Institute of Physics and Technology in Kharkiv, which housed a small experimental reactor, was destroyed from the air in March 2022. Moscow has also continually spread disinformation and stoked nuclear fears, most recently regarding the security of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant after the Ukrainian advance into the region.

This is a lesson on the vulnerability of nuclear infrastructure during a conflict. Political leaders and policymakers must pay attention to it as they consider domestic energy policy.

Author

Henry Campbell is the strategic engagement and program manager of ASPI’s Northern Australian Strategic Policy Centre (NASPC), Strategic Policing and Law Enforcement Program and Counterterrorism Program.

Image of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during an IAEA visit in 2023: IAEA Imagebank/Flickr.

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Monday, (10/28/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

From Nvidia to nuclear power to extra spicy hot sauce – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

Building a 21st-century media company: The traditional media industry continues to be disrupted by everything from new streaming networks to creators …

How the US can counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats in space – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council

As China and Russia bolster their counterspace capabilities, the United States must modernize its space-based nuclear command.

Bill Gates Is Pouring Billions Into Nuclear Power. Is This the Best Nuclear Stock to Buy Now?

AOL.com

… all signed deals for nuclear energy. That’s not a … Investors in NuScale Power are thinking all about the upside of SMR technology right now.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Sam Altman-backed energy stock surges amid AI-driven ‘nuclear power renaissance’

Yahoo Finance

Oklo’s stock has surged as investors look to nuclear energy stocks as the next big AI trade. But the company and its competitors face several …

Donald Trump Takes A Skeptical View Of Nuclear Energy On Joe Rogan’s Podcast

HuffPost

Former President Donald Trump took a skeptical stance on nuclear energy in his recent interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, warning that the source of …

Can Big Tech revive nuclear power? – E&E News by POLITICO

E&E News

The multitrillion-dollar cloud computing industry is rolling the dice on old and new reactors.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

No deficiencies in Luzerne County’s nuclear power plant emergency response drill

The Sunday Dispatch

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission also reviewed the capabilities of nuclear plant operators to recognize, classify and communicate simulated emergency …

Emergency towers erected following catastrophic NSW storm – Energy Magazine

Energy Magazine

The utility said that three more emergency towers have been safely … Nuclear power public hearing kicks off. by Sarah MacNamara · October 28 …

Thousands in Plymouth to receive ‘emergency alert’ this week

Plymouth Live

… nuclear powered submarines for the Royal Navy. Residents can sign up to receive the emergency alerts through the Council’s website. READ MORE …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Why We All Need a U.N. Study of the Effects of Nuclear War | Scientific American

Scientific American

A new United Nations expert study of the effects of nuclear war would spur informed and inclusive global debate on what nuclear war means for …

War risks from nuclear power plants? Just look at Zaporizhzhia | The Strategist

ASPI Strategist

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons and new nuclear doctrine are alarming. But, as Ukrainian President …

Former Trump Official Warns of Nuclear War Scenario – Newsweek

Newsweek

Former national security adviser Robert O’Brien said Ukrainian NATO membership would be “too provocative” and suggested security guarantees as an …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

War risks from nuclear power plants? Just look at Zaporizhzhia | The Strategist

ASPI Strategist

Subscribe. War risks from nuclear power plants? Just look at … Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons and new …

How the US can counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats in space – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council

Today, two evolving threats pose new challenges for NC3. First, China is improving the quality and quantity of its nuclear arsenal, which raises the …

Why We All Need a U.N. Study of the Effects of Nuclear War | Scientific American

Scientific American

… risks posed by nuclear war plans and nuclear deterrence threats. In September the U.N.’s member states overwhelmingly agreed on the Pact for the .

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 27, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Sunday, (10/27/2024)

An interesting — and more than valid today — point of view from “Modern Diplomacy” and author Prof. Louis René Beres from a comment made in reference to the the use of the 1st atomic bombs used against Japan from physicist, Leo Szilard, who was a team member of the United States’ Manhattan Project.

May I just say, today, “The ‘hive’ is much larger these days.” ~llaw

Survival Limits of Military Nuclear Power: Israel and “The Sting of the Bee”

Even while Israel remains the only regional atomic power, a nuclear war with the Islamic Republic remains possible.

ByProf. Louis René Beres

October 27, 2024

In a now classic 1965 article on nuclear weapons,[1] physicist Leo Szilard offered a clarifying metaphor on different types of national nuclear capability. For some situations, the Manhattan Project physicist explained, belligerent use of nuclear ordnance could become self-annihilating. Recalling that one type of honey bee dies after it has stung, Szilard proceeded to identify certain “weaker” nuclear states as those with “sting of the bee” survival limits.

Such imaginative characterizations remain relevant to world politics.  Were he writing today about possible Russian or North Korean interventions on behalf of Iran, Szilard would likely caution Israel that even its most powerful nuclear weapons could be immobilized by such surrogate foes. In essence, Szilard would warn Israel against ever being reduced to “bee sting” nuclear status. Following Israel’s October 26 self-defense retaliations against Iranian aggression – lawful counter-attacks against an enemy displaying continuously criminal intent or mens rea – this would be an appropriate warning.

For Israel’s senior military planners, issues of Iranian nuclearization are already dense and soon-to-be opaque. Even while Israel remains the only regional atomic power, a nuclear war with the Islamic Republic remains possible. More precisely, even a pre-nuclear Iran could bring Israel to the point where Jerusalem’s only strategic options would be intolerable capitulations or nuclear escalations. In effect, the second option would represent an “asymmetrical nuclear war.”

Would Israel allow itself to reach such an “all-or-nothing” decisional precipice? Though there are several persuasive answers, all that really matters is that Jerusalem consider this chilling prospect with attention to force-multiplying intersections and “synergies.”  Accordingly, a one-sided nuclear war scenario should come to mind in which Iran would target Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor and/or employ radiation dispersal weapons against the Jewish State. Unique escalations could also follow in the wake of an Iranian resort to biological or electromagnetic pulse (EMP) ordnance. In a next-to-worst-case scenario, Israel would be prevented from striking preemptively against designated Iranian targets by Russian and/or North Korean nuclear threats. The worst-case scenario would be a “bolt-from-the-blue nuclear attack launched by Russia or North Korea (or both together).

Where does Jerusalem actually stand on such existential challenges? Looking toward its steadily-expanding conflict with Iran, any “one-off” preemption against Iranian weapons and infrastructures (an act of “anticipatory self-defense” under international law) would be problematic. At this late stage, any such defensive action would need to be undertaken in increments and during an ongoing war. In 2003, when this writer’s Project Daniel Group[2] presented its early report on Iranian nuclearization to then-Israeli PM Ariel Sharon, Iranian targets had already become more daunting than had been Iraq’s Osiraq reactor on June 7, 1981 (“Operation Opera”).

What next? There is a revealing strategic dialectic. During any expanding war against Iran, Israel could calculate that it has no choice but to launch multiple and mutually-reinforcing preemptive strikes against specific enemy targets.

At the same time, Russian and/or North Korean threats of support for Iran could lay the groundwork for a multi-state nuclear war, one that could come to involve the United States and/or China. While it might be tempting to claim such jaw-dropping interventions as “speculative” or “unlikely,” there is no science-based way to estimate the probabilities of any unique event. True probabilities can never be determined ex nihilo, or “out of nothing.”

There would be variously important qualifications. To the extent that they might still be usefully estimated, the risks of an Israel-Iran nuclear war will depend on whether such a conflict would be intentional, unintentional, or accidental. Apart from applying this critical three-part distinction, there could be no adequate reason to expect operationally-gainful strategic assessments of any such war.  Ensuring existential protections from openly declared Iranian aggressions, Jerusalem should always bear in mind that even the Jewish State’s physical survival can never be “guaranteed.” At some point, even a nuclear weapons state could be left with only “the sting of the bee.”

There are further nuances. An unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war between Jerusalem and Teheran could take place not only as the result of misunderstandings or miscalculations between rational leaders, but also as the unintended consequence of mechanical, electrical, or computer malfunction. This should bring to analyzing Israeli minds a further distinction between an unintentional/inadvertent nuclear war and an accidental nuclear war. Though all accidental nuclear wars must be unintentional, not every unintentional nuclear war would need to occur by accident. On one occasion or another, an unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war could be the result of fundamental human misjudgments about enemy intentions. This catastrophic result could be both irremediable and irreversible.

               History matters. An authentic nuclear war has never been fought. There are no genuine experts on “conducting” or “winning” a nuclear war. Reciprocally, Jerusalem ought always to disavow strategic counsel drawn from “common sense.” Complicated strategic problems can never be solved by “seat-of-the-pants” judgments or glaringly empty witticisms, For Israel, nothing could prove more important than to understand this imperative and to reserve complex nuclear calculations to small cadres of “high thinkers.” We are speaking here of the caliber of Szilard, Fermi, Oppenheimer, Einstein, Bohr and assorted others, not to make another “gadget,” but to plan for nuclear deterrent success via calculated non-use. All such urgent planning should be initiated on a theoretical level; it is not a task for conceptually unfortified operational designs.

               There is more. Providing for Israeli national security amid a still-nuclearizing Iran ought never to become an ad-hoc “game” of chance. Without a suitably long-term, systematic and theory-based plan in place, Israel would render itself unprepared for an Iranian nuclear conflict that is deliberate, unintentional or accidental. At every stage of its lethal competition with Tehran, Jerusalem should never lose sight of the only sensible rationale for maintaining its national nuclear weapons and doctrine. That justification is (1) stable war management at all identifiable levels; and (2) reliable nuclear deterrence.

               More than anything else, Israel’s strategic plans should include a prompt policy shift from “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” to “selective nuclear disclosure.” The core logic of this shift would not be to simply reframe the obvious (i.e., that Israel is already a nuclear power), but to remind would-be aggressors that Jerusalem’s nuclear weapons are operationally usable at all imaginable levels of warfare. Nonetheless, even with optimal prudential planning, Russian and/or North Korean threats to Israel could sometime become overwhelming.  Ipso facto, Jerusalem will need to remain prepared for all plausibly related scenarios.

               Reduced to its essentials, an authentically worst case scenario for Israel would commence with progressively explicit threats from Moscow about Israeli preemption costs. Israel, aware that it could not reasonably expect to coexist indefinitely with a nuclear Iran, would proceed with its planned preemptions in spite of the dire Russian warnings. In subsequent response, Russian military forces would begin to act directly against Israel, thereby seeking to persuade Jerusalem that Moscow is in a patently superior position to dominate all conceivable escalations. Alternatively, Putin could delegate such military responsibilities to North Korea, an Iranian ally that is presently preparing (within Russia) to augment Russian military forces against Ukraine.

 For Vladimir Putin, such persuasive effort would not be a “hard sell.” Unless the United States were willing to enter the already-chaotic situation with unambiguously support for Israel, Moscow should have no foreseeable difficulties in establishing “escalation dominance.” In this connection, well-intentioned supporters of Israel could over-estimate the Jewish State’s relative nuclear capabilities and options. Significantly, there is no clear way in which the capabilities and options of a state smaller than America’s Lake Michigan could actually “win” at competitive risk-taking vis-à-vis Russia or North Korea.  For Israel, in such unprecedented matters, self-deflating candor would be much safer than self-deluding bravado. As a strategic objective, Israel’s avoidance of “bee sting” nuclear capacity would be indispensable.

               What about the United States? Would an American president accept an alliance commitment that could place millions of Americans in positons of grievous vulnerability? For those most part, the answer would lie with the character and inclinations of the American leader. It this president would visibly assume the long-term benefits of honoring US security guarantees, the world could be looking at another Cuban Missile Crisis or some similar confrontation. If, however, this president would take the openly-stated position of candidate Donald Trump concerning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine (“Let Putin do whatever the hell he wants”),^[3] Jerusalem could have no choice but to accept a nuclear Iran. After all, a military confrontation with Russia would be one in which Israel could not reasonably expect to prevail.

               There are additionally important issuers of nuclear doctrine. In his continuing war of aggression and genocide against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has been recycling provocative elements of Soviet-era strategic thinking. One critical element concerns the absence of any apparent “firebreak” between conventional and tactical nuclear force engagements. Now, much as it was during the “classical” era of US-Soviet nuclear deterrence, Moscow identifies the determinative escalatory threshold with a first-use of high-yield, long-range strategic nuclear weapons, not a first use of tactical (theater) nuclear weapons.

               But this perilous nuclear escalation doctrine is not shared by Israel’s United States ally, and could erode any once-stabilizing barriers of intra-war deterrence between the original superpowers. Whether sudden or incremental, any such erosion could impact the plausibility of both a deliberate and inadvertent nuclear war. As Israel could need to depend on firm US support in countering Russian nuclear threats, Vladimir Putin should be granted a prominent place in Israel’s threat assessments of Iranian nuclear progress. In principle, at least, this place ought even to be preeminent.

               For Israel, the bottom-line of such dialectical analysis is an invariant obligation to analyze still-pertinent preemption–options as an intellectual task. Among other things, reaching rational judgments on defensive first strikes against a still pre-nuclear Iran will require fact-based anticipations of (1) Russian and/or North Korean intentions; and (2) United States willingness to stand by Israel in extremis. Prime facie, Israel’s growing nuclear war hazards include variously tangible scenarios of Russian or North Korean interventions on behalf of Iran. Remembering Leo Szilard’s elucidating metaphor, Jerusalem should consider in its strategic calculations that even with conspicuously refined nuclear weapons and doctrine, Israel could end up with “the sting of a bee.” 

               For the imperiled Jewish State, no such end could be survivable.

---

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Sunday, (10/27/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Israel’s first open attack on Iran targets missile sites and apparently spares oil and nuclear ones

AP News

Get caught up on what you may have missed throughout the day. See All Newsletters … things no one ever said · Russia’s central bank raises …

Israel launches airstrikes on Iran | Utah Public Radio

Utah Public Radio

All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:30 PM Marketplace. 0:00. 0:00. All Things … There has been worry leading up to this that Israel might try to strike …

How Iran might react to Israeli airstrikes | Prairie Public

Prairie Public

All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:00 PM … There had been great concern over the past few weeks that Israel would hit Iran’s energy or nuclear …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

The Debrief: What is behind the revival of nuclear power? – YouTube

YouTube

washingtonexaminer #nuclearpower #kamalaharris #environment #energy Washington Examiner Editor-in-Chief Hugo Gurdon joins Investigations Editor …

From Nvidia to nuclear power to extra spicy hot sauce – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

From Nvidia to nuclear power to extra spicy hot sauce · The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the …

Nuclear Energy Renaissance: Should You Buy NuScale Power Stock? – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

Companies and governments around the world are building and restarting nuclear power plants after realizing they are perfect for the growth in …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Onagawa No. 2 nuclear reactor set for restart amid mixed local reception – The Japan Times

The Japan Times

The No. 2 unit at Tohoku Electric Power’s Onagawa nuclear power … Some emergency power generators at the plant stopped functioning due to damage from …

Coalition confident new Queensland government will back nuclear power – ABC News

ABC

Nationals leader David Littleproud says he would expect the new LNP government in Queensland to work with the Coalition on nuclear power if it won …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Satellite images show damage from Israeli attack at 2 secretive Iranian military bases

AP News

… that experts in the past have linked to Tehran’s onetime nuclear weapons program and at another base tied to its ballistic missile program.

Whitmire: The long stupid saga of Kay Ivey’s nuclear war – AL.com

AL.com

This is an opinion column. On Tuesday, Gov. Kay Ivey fired a man. Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis didn’t resign to spend more time with …

Survival Limits of Military Nuclear Power: Israel and “The Sting of the Bee”

Modern Diplomacy

Even while Israel remains the only regional atomic power, a nuclear war with the Islamic Republic remains possible.

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

NATO begins its two week nuclear war exercises – Daily Excelsior

Daily Excelsior

… threat.” The announcement of the nuclear exercises came just as survivors of the two US atomic bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima …

Survival Limits of Military Nuclear Power: Israel and “The Sting of the Bee”

Modern Diplomacy

At the same time, Russian and/or North Korean threats of support for Iran could lay the groundwork for a multi-state nuclear war, one that could come …

Killing Iran’s nuclear program: Did Israel throw away a golden opportunity? – analysis

The Jerusalem Post

… threats by the Biden administration about weapons transfers if the … First, Jerusalem had more legitimacy to attack the nuclear program than at any …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 26, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Saturday, (10/26/2024)

All you have to do to understand the efficacy of this article is to simply read these two sentences in the article below: “Trump’s position is also vague. In an interview with Elon Musk in August 2024, Trump confused nuclear power with nuclear weapons.”

The rest is boilerplate information about nuclear power — what it is, how it’s regulated, how it functions, and know and understand that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has an important duty to prevent and protect the American population from killing off itself with nuclear radiation from nuclear power generation. Unfortunately there is nothing the NRC can do about nuclear war.

Nuclear war is not the issue in this article, of course, but there is also valid reason to recognize and consider that nuclear power plants in both Russia and Ukraine are seriously involved as potential nuclear weapons in the war between the two countries. There is also the caution, or even fear of, creating an exclusive hoard of new nuclear power proliferation with dozens or hundreds of dangerous AI (Artificial Intelligence) by and of itself, poorly regulated and controlled SMR’s (Small Modular Reactors), and other new nuclear power facilities that dramatically increase the possibility of serious lethal nuclear accidents.

But beyond nuclear accidents, there is also a serious security issue connected, not only with accidents, including the HALEU or nuclear fuel, for these projected new power stations, including theft for the “black-market” selling of enriched uranium for building nuclear weapons to be used for threats of terrorism, authoritarianism, autocratic control, despotism, or coercive tyranny, or even terrorism itself. ~llaw

Will the Next President Get Nuclear Right?

The next administration’s energy challenge may be catching up with the homework assigned by the current one

Oct 25, 2024

Nuclear energy doesn’t usually figure prominently in Presidential elections. It doesn’t rank high on the list of concerns for most voters—like inflation, reproductive rights, or managing the Mexican border—and a candidate who promises to get more reactors built won’t necessarily win a lot of extra votes. On the other hand, there are votes to be lost, among the “we’re-all-gonna-die” anti-nuclear crowd that still turns out at demonstrations now and then.

The nuts and bolts of implementing laws on the books that would help nuclear energy–that is, the administration’s actual business of administering–may be a more important issue.

Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has said a lot about nuclear energy. In 2020, the Washington Post attempted to list the position of each candidate in the Democratic primaries on nuclear energy. It put Harris in the category of “Unclear/no response.” As a Senator, Harris voted against the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act in committee, citing safety concerns about the San Onofre reactors. More recently, at a September 25^th campaign event in Pittsburgh, Harris listed nuclear among other clean energy technologies.

Trump’s position is also vague. In an interview with Elon Musk in August 2024, Trump confused nuclear power with nuclear weapons. His campaign website states:

President Trump will support nuclear energy production, which reached a record high during his administration, by modernizing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, working to keep existing power plants open, and investing in innovative small modular reactors.

It also calls for domestic uranium mining. But carbon dioxide emissions are not a factor; Trump often says that human-caused climate change is a “hoax.”

There are reasons that each candidate should like nuclear. Harris may like it as part of a climate program, and Trump as part of a nationalistic drive towards energy independence, although the United States has largely achieved this with fracking.

Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, has acknowledged “all these crazy weather patterns,” and said, “if you really want to make the environment cleaner, you’ve got to invest in more energy production. We haven’t built a nuclear facility, I think one, in the past 40 years.” Governor Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, favored lifting Minnesota’s moratorium on new reactors.

But effective government is different from attempts at public persuasion. The administration of government programs, especially government contracting for procurement programs and subsidy programs, is governed by a welter of laws and procedures. There are opportunities for both expediting and slow-walking the process. Only time will tell if the next administration is up to the task of modernizing the U.S. nuclear sector for the 21^st century.

Once Upon a Time, on the Campaign Trail

But there is not much indication that either candidate is enthusiastic about nuclear.

The last time that nuclear energy figured prominently into a presidential campaign was in 2008, when Senator Barack Obama of Illinois promised Nevada Democrats that he would kill the Yucca Mountain waste repository in exchange for support in his race against Hillary Clinton. He won and he did.

Congress is a different case, and candidates often have something to say about nuclear energy in the areas in which they are running. As the Huffington Post recently pointed out, Democrats running for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Texas have spoken favorably of nuclear energy, something that is more often heard from Republicans.

But a president doesn’t always have a strong influence over nuclear energy. In the late 1980s, when the Long Island Lighting Company finished the Shoreham nuclear reactor, local governments said it was impossible to meet evacuation requirements and they wanted it shut down. President Reagan, a former paid spokesman for General Electric, which had designed the reactor, worked hard to assure it would open. That didn’t work. The plant operated for a few days of start-up tests and then was decommissioned. New York consumers are still paying the more than $5 billion bill for the project.

There are some policy questions on the horizon. One is the future of the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, which received $2.5 billion under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The program was created to pay half the cost of two advanced reactors, and smaller sums for reactors not as close to commercialization. But since that time, the cost of steel, concrete and labor have all gone up. So too has the cost of borrowing money. The industry is hoping that the Energy Department will “re-baseline” the amount that the government will match and that Congress will appropriate more.

There are some other presidential decisions ahead. An executive order by Biden, now in force, requires that the Federal government’s operations run on clean electricity by 2035, which would create a market for new nuclear. Trump, if elected, seems likely to rescind that order.

But the administration, aside from urging Congress to pass or kill legislation, does more; it also administers the laws that Congress has already passed. And in the last few years, Congress has passed many laws that now require the Department of Energy to issue contracts or write checks to assist nuclear projects, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to reform its operation.

Among the initiatives:

HALEU

Most advanced reactors are designed to run on fuel enriched to nearly 20 percent, in contrast to the 5 percent enrichment that is commonly used now. The fuel is known as High Assay Low-Enriched Uranium, or HALEU. But fuel producers have been reluctant to invest in making that fuel because they are not sure that the advanced reactors will be built. So, Congress told the Energy Department to buy the higher-enriched uranium in an intermediate form suitable for various kinds of reactors to get the ball rolling and then sell it to the owners of advanced reactors.

In January, the Department of Energy announced that it wanted proposals for $2.7 billion in uranium enrichment services. It recently issued a list of four qualified contractors. This is a meaningful step forward, but it has yet to award contracts, negotiate terms, and take delivery. The next administration could slow-walk these steps or speed them up. The pace at which the Energy Department issues requests for proposals, evaluates submissions and makes decisions can be highly variable.

Gen 3+ and SMR:

Almost all contemporary reactors are known as Generation 3, but there are more advanced models that still use low-enriched uranium and ordinary water but are designed to rely more heavily for safety on natural forces like gravity and heat dissipation instead of pumps and valves. Those are known as Gen 3+. Some of these designs are Small Modular Reactors, known as SMRs.

The Energy Department recently announced that it would accept applications until January 17, 2025 to share in $900 million available for 50/50 matching grants to support such projects. It will have to analyze the submissions, choose among them, possibly defend against lawsuits from disappointed applicants, and negotiate terms. The grants will be milestone-based, meaning that the recipients will have to demonstrate, to the Energy Department staff’s satisfaction, that they have met interim goals.

Money for this program has been authorized but not funded. Congress would have to vote to supply the money, which would be easier with support from the White House. Neither candidate has specifically addressed this question.

NRC Modernization

The ADVANCE Act (Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy) prompts the NRC to speed up the licensing of new reactors, including those with technologies that it is not as familiar with. The act also requires the NRC to develop a regulatory framework for fusion, issue guidance on licensing micro-reactors, and increase staff.

The NRC is an independent agency and the changes do not appear to require complicated bidding and contracting, as Energy Department mandates do. But it is notoriously slow to modernize. The commission would probably do better at modernizing if the White House rides herd on the commissioners, pushing, for example, for a workable licensing framework for advanced reactors.

And, with one of the five commission seats becoming vacant every June 30^th, the next President will have to decide which nominees to back. Currently, there is one vacancy. The party that holds the White House designates the chair, and usually has dibs over three of the five seats.

With one exception—a rogue chairman—the White House has historically left the NRC to manage its own affairs. It isn’t clear that a Harris administration would break that pattern. And what Trump would do is even harder to predict.

Who Will Do the Work?

Laws are sometimes harder to implement than to pass. For one thing, it takes an agency that is fully staffed with competent bureaucrats—a real challenge.

Although Trump is proposing to move large numbers of civil servants into a category where he could dismiss them easily, a less obvious problem is filling top jobs that are already in the President’s purview. The Partnership for Public Service and the Washington Post track 817 important jobs that are filled by the President, with Senate confirmation. By their count, in Biden’s first six months, he nominated 304; Obama nominated 348 and Bush nominated 308. Trump, in contrast, nominated 213.

Anecdotal evidence is that lower-level jobs, many not subject to Senate confirmation, were filled more slowly in the Trump administration than in those of the presidents who preceded him or followed him.

Trump has already opted out of the government’s usual transition process, in which both major party candidates send over personnel who get security clearances and are briefed by incumbent officials on major issues. Some of the Department of Energy’s civilian nuclear energy work involves classified information.

But Democratic administrations have trouble getting things done too, and the obstacles to getting money out the door aren’t confined to nuclear. Congress voted massive stimulus bills in 2020 to keep the United States out of recession as the Covid pandemic set in with the CARES act. But two years later, more than $100 billion hadn’t been spent yet. By April of 2024, nearly $92 billion still hadn’t been spent. This was more than a year after President Biden declared that the Covid emergency was over.

It is also true that some of the demand for nuclear energy, current or future, doesn’t come directly from Washington. The electricity industry predicted a nuclear renaissance around 2008, not because of Congress, but because the price of natural gas had risen to $12 per million BTU. Many plants were proposed, but only two, Vogtle 3 & 4, made it across the finish line, partly because the price of natural gas fell to $2 per million BTU with the commercialization of fracking in shale.

That technique, which has changed the shape of the grid, is based on technologies nurtured by the Department of Energy for years, including supercomputing, directional drilling and 3d-seismic, but this certainly wasn’t a policy decision.

Now, the country is facing sharply higher estimates of load growth. Some of that is from policy initiatives, like subsidizing building owners to switch their heating systems to electric-driven heat pumps from natural gas, oil or propane, or programs to encourage electric vehicles. Some of it comes from the growth of data centers, which is a commercial trend, not a government program.

And tech giants including Amazon, Google and Microsoft have all announced that they plan to put money into nuclear energy. So has Dow, the chemical company.

The commercial and policy ducks are in a row; an important task for the next president is to get the administrative ducks to line up too.

---

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday, (10/26/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Will the Next President Get Nuclear Right? – The Breakthrough Institute

The Breakthrough Institute

… all announced that they plan to put money into nuclear energy. So … Seven Things You Thought You Knew about Nuclear Energy. Matthew L. Wald.

Big tech’s nuclear gamble could change the course of the energy transition – Oil & Gas 360

Oil & Gas 360

(Oil Price) – Microsoft recently struck a deal to restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. … The website is dedicated to all things …

A Frisson of Fission: Why Nuclear Power Won’t Replace Natural Gas as North America’s Critical Fuel

C2C Journal

After all these years, why now? The answer is electricity demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Like many things in the tech realm, AI is a …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

3 Nuclear Power Stocks That Could Power the Artificial Intelligence Revolution | The Motley Fool

The Motley Fool

Three distinct approaches to nuclear power — from small reactors to established utilities to advanced fuel tech — could help power big tech’s AI …

Ep21. AI Going Nuclear – YouTube

YouTube

Why It’s So Hard To Build Nuclear Power Plants In The U.S.. CNBC•359K … Inside the New Micro Nuclear Reactor that Could Power the Future.

Nuclear power stocks are soaring amid an AI energy push. Here are 7 names to watch.

Markets Insider – Business Insider

The best-performing nuclear stock has soared 481% so far this year as mega-cap tech companies strike deals for nuclear power.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

US nuclear regulator kicks off review on Three Mile Island restart | Reuters

Reuters

… nuclear power plant in an initial public … Members of the NRC requested details about the emergency evacuation plans for the restarted plant …

Iowa veterinarian’s pharmacy license suspended by emergency order – KCRG

KCRG

… emergency order. A …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Israel’s attack in Iran means full-scale war is closer than ever. Here’s what Iran is thinking now.

Atlantic Council

After a long waiting period, Israel has just executed its response to the October 1 Iranian missile attack against Israel. In complete contrast to …

Israel makes retaliatory strikes against military targets in Iran – Washington Post

Washington Post

The Israeli attacks followed Iran’s ballistic missile barrage against Israel this month, adding to the cycle of tit-for-tat strikes between the …

World appears on track for even more dangerous Cold War 2.0 – Harvard Gazette

Harvard Gazette

Pulitzer winner warns China, which is building nuclear arsenal, would be third major player besides U.S., Russia — and six other nations now have …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

World appears on track for even more dangerous Cold War 2.0 – Harvard Gazette

Harvard Gazette

“Nuclear weapons are political weapons. They’re instruments of threat and of coercion, and they require political will to restrain. ” David Hoffman.

Putin flaunts his so-called doomsday weapons as ongoing threat to block support for Ukraine

Milwaukee Independent

… threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A look at … nuclear submarines and modernizing nuclear-capable bombers. Russia’s …

Not just about nuclear aspirations: Iran moving full steam ahead to develop a new aerial threat

Israel Hayom

… threats, while the State of Israel used this time to develop counter-missile capabilities and other protection measures. Although any full-scale war ..

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 25, 2024

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In early- to mid-October, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been spotted traveling through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and being split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. It is still not clear why they are in Russia. (Credit: Photo by Bumble-Dee / depositphotos.com)

LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Friday, (10/25/2024)

There seems to have recently been a warming of relations between Russia and North Korea, or more precisely, Vladimir Putin and Kim. Jong Un. Visits back and forth between the two have been frequent and now we see that North Korean soldiers are being trained in Russia to possibly be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops.

The reasons? Like the headline to the related article by the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” says, The reason(s) are “left to be seen” ~llaw

North Korea sent troops to Russia. The reason(s) are “left to be seen”

By François Diaz-Maurin | October 25, 2024

In early- to mid-October, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been spotted traveling through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and being split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. It is still not clear why they are in Russia. (Credit: Photo by Bumble-Dee / depositphotos.com)

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed Wednesday that North Korean troops were in Russia conducting military exercises, following a claim last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his government had received intelligence information that 10,000 North Korean soldiers were being prepared to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

Zelensky did not provide details during his visit to NATO headquarters to discuss his “victory plan” to end the war with Russia. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell would not confirm the claim either, saying only that the United States and its allies were “alarmed” by North Korea’s increasing military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

But details soon emerged of North Korean troops being spotted in Russia.

Troop buildup with an unclear mission. On Wednesday, national security spokesperson John Kirby said that, in early- to mid-October, more than 3,000 North Korean soldiers had traveled through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and were split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. The same day, South Korean intelligence services said that another contingent of 1,500 North Korean troops had entered Russia, and Ukrainian officials claimed that overall more than 12,000 North Koreans had already arrived in the far east of Russia.

Both North Korea and Russia denied the movements, even as several video footage reportedly showed North Korean military personnel arriving at a Russian military base in the village of Sergiivka in the Primorsky Krai, about 200 kilometers from the border with North Korea, and others receiving uniforms and equipment at a Russian training base in Sergeevka, near Russia’s border with China.

Austin said the United States does not know whether the North Korean troops would join the war in Ukraine alongside the Russian military. “What exactly they’re doing—left to be seen,” he told reporters on Wednesday. Kirby added that this is “certainly a highly concerning probability.” Visibly alarmed, Austin said: “It will have impacts not only in Europe—it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”

It did not take long for South Korea to react, threatening to supply weapons to Ukraine if North Korea’s troops were sent to fight for Moscow. On Monday, South Korean and Ukrainian media reported that Seoul was considering sending intelligence officers and tactical experts to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s actions.

RELATED:

Question for the candidates: How will you reassure allies worried about the credibility of the US security guarantees?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that if North Korean soldiers went to Ukraine, it would mark a “significant escalation” in the war there.

Ramifications in the Korean Peninsula. The revelation comes amid heightened cross-border tensions between North Korea and South Korea.

In January, two experts on North Korea, Robert Carlin and Sig Hecker, co-authored a controversial article suggesting that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un may be preparing for war. Washington and Seoul are so blindly convinced that their “ironclad” deterrence will keep Kim in check that “Pyongyang could be planning to move in ways that completely defy our calculations,” they wrote. However, “the literature on surprise attacks should make us wary of the comfortable assumptions that resonate in Washington’s echo chamber but might not have purchase in Pyongyang.” Carlin and Hecker are not alone in suggesting that current US policy makes North Korea more likely to use nuclear weapons first.

Earlier this month, North Korea reportedly blew up parts of unused road and rail routes that once connected it with South Korea. News reports qualified it as a “symbolic display of anger” over the South Korean conservative government’s stronger stance toward the North. But analysts dismissed the possibility that this could be in preparation for an imminent preemptive, large-scale attack on South Korea, pointing to the risk of an almost certain massive retaliation by superior US and South Korean forces.

According to Carlin and Hecker, if left with no good options to keep his nuclear arsenal, Kim may find himself in a “use-it-or-lose-it” situation in which launching a surprise nuclear attack on South Korea in the hope of staving off a possible massive disarming strike could appear as worth the risk. Destroying cross-border roads and railways—even if currently unused—could delay or alter the capacity of the United States and South Korea to retaliate with conventional forces. On Thursday, South Korean sources reportedly saw North Korean forces constructing several unidentified structures on the eastern inter-Korean road they had blown up earlier, with South Korean officials saying the structures resemble concrete barriers or bunkers, and South Korea’s Unification Ministry confirmed on Friday new blockades were being built along inter-Korean railways to fortify the border areas.*

Top South Korean officials said in a statement that the presence of North Korean troops in Russia is “a grave security threat” to South Korea and pledged to take proportionate countermeasures. Officials worry that Russia may offer North Korea advanced weapons technologies to boost nuclear and missile programs that are geared toward South Korea.

---

Subscribed

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Fruday, (10/25/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Big Tech Embraces Nuclear Power to Meet Growing Energy Needs – Business Insider

Business Insider

Big Tech, including Amazon and Microsoft, is pursuing nuclear power to meet soaring energy demands for generative AI and data centers.

NextEra Ponders Nuclear Plant Restart as Backlog Climbs – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

NextEra Energy’s CEO is considering restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear plant as electricity needs, particularly from data centers, are growing.

South Korea warns it may send Ukraine weapons after North Korea sent troops to Russia

90.5 WESA

So far, South Korea has helped Ukraine by providing arms to the U.S. and other countries. But South Korea’s government said that could change with …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

US Power Grid Added Battery Equivalent of 20 Nuclear Reactors In Past Four Years – Slashdot

Slashdot

whitroth writes: People here and elsewhere have been yelling for more nuclear power, and that renewables can’t meet demand.

The US Nuclear Energy Revival Has a Major Blind Spot

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

… Nuclear Power Plant in Georgia. The AP1000 technology was viable, as was demonstrated by the startup of four Chinese AP1000 reactors the following …

The Global Race for Advanced Nuclear Is On – Clean Air Task Force

Clean Air Task Force

It is clear that the success of advanced reactor demonstration and deployment is directly linked to government funding and support. In the United …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

FEMA finds Northeast ready for nuclear emergencies, preliminary results show – FOX56

FOX56

This includes Luzerne County and Columbia County, who are within the jurisdiction of the Susquehanna Nuclear Power Plant.

Essex handing out iodine pills in case of Fermi nuclear emergency – Windsor Star

Windsor Star

… Power Plant stacks are shown in the distance from the Amherstburg … The pills are intended to ensure residents are prepared “in the unlikely event of …

US Power Grid Added Battery Equivalent of 20 Nuclear Reactors In Past Four Years – Slashdot

Slashdot

whitroth writes: People here and elsewhere have been yelling for more nuclear power, and that renewables can’t meet demand.

Nuclear War

NEWS

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Issues Nuclear War Warning – Newsweek

Newsweek

The former presidential candidate said that Kamala Harris is backed by a faction that “desires war” with Russia.

North Korea sent troops to Russia. The reason(s) are “left to be seen”

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Thousands of North Korean soldiers may fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. South Korean officials worry the North may get Russian advanced weapons …

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize rings the alarm about the nuclear threat – The Hill

The Hill

There are five main drivers of the alarming rise in the threat of nuclear weapons use, each of which demand global attention and American …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Issues Nuclear War Warning – Newsweek

Newsweek

What has Vladimir Putin said on nuclear war. Russia has increasingly made threats, both subtle and explicit, about a nuclear confrontation with the …

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize rings the alarm about the nuclear threat – The Hill

The Hill

While public discussion of the dangers of nuclear weapons has declined, the threat … nuclear war Nuclear weapons Russia Ukraine United States …

Ukraine war: Use or threat of use of nukes ‘unacceptable’, says India-Germany joint statement

The Economic Times

… war and unacceptable nuclear threats. They condemned terrorism, highlighted the need for global food and energy security, and stressed the …

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IAEA Weekly News

25 October 2024

Read the top news and updates published on IAEA.org this week.

24 October 2024

Update 256 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its only remaining 330 kilovolt (kV) back-up power line for a second time this month, once again leaving the facility dependent on one single source of the external electricity it needs for reactor cooling and other key nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today. Read more →

24 October 2024

IAEA and Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation Strengthen Long-Term Partnership on Ocean Acidification

The IAEA Marine Environment Laboratories and the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation have signed a new partnership on ocean acidification and ocean-based solutions to climate change. Read more →

23 October 2024

IAEA Initiative to Streamline SMR Deployment Moving to Implementation Phase

Global efforts to converge different types of small modular reactor technologies as well as their regulatory approaches are continuing to make strong progress, according to the latest meeting of the IAEA’s Nuclear Harmonization and Standardization Initiative.  Read more →

22 October 2024

The Top Three Food Frauds and how Nuclear Scientists can Help Detect them

The IAEA, jointly with the FAO, helps countries use nuclear and related techniques to trace food origin, check its authenticity and test for contaminants. Read more →

21 October 2024

Guatemala Prioritizes Capacity Building, Palliative Care and Strengthening Cancer Registry Following Cancer Control Review

Guatemala is setting new priorities for cancer control following a thorough review of its cancer care capacities and needs during an imPACT Review mission to the country. Read more →

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 24, 2024

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Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the town of Bucha in Ukraine on April 4, 2022, after the retreat of Russian troops. (Credit: Photo by dmytro.larin.gmail.com / depositphotos.com)

LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Thursday, (10/24/2024)

The “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” in this detailed in-depth coverage of the present Russia/Ukraine war carefully explains the ‘ifs’, old and new, behind the extremely tense situation that has been allowed to fester and grow all the way to consideration of nuclear weapons, including the seriously overlooked nuclear power plants in both countries. I read today that Russian troops have now taken over complete control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, which apparently has been operated by Russian technicians since before the war began.

The ultimate situation all boils down to the possibility of Russia and/or NATO (including the U.S.) using nuclear weapons. Such a stand-off situation is grave and the U.S. still remains trapped beneath that rock and a hard place about the ultimate decision that NATO would make to cause Russia to attempt to end the war with a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Doing so would, according to the level-headed of us, automatically cause retaliation and that would automatically cause the reality of World War III, which would automatically be the last war on planet Earth. I hope we humans are not that stupid . . . ~llaw

How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation

By Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb | October 24, 2024

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the town of Bucha in Ukraine on April 4, 2022, after the retreat of Russian troops. (Credit: Photo by dmytro.larin.gmail.com / depositphotos.com)

Discussions of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia have become more frequent in recent months. One such discussion occurred in September during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington, when some government officials and analysts emphasized the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia.

The possibility of nuclear war growing out of this conflict is a serious concern. But an all-out nuclear war is not necessarily the only, or most likely, means by which this war could expand and escalate up to nuclear use. The controversy surrounding Ukrainian demands for permission to use NATO long-range missiles for attacks deeper into Russia poses a major risk of escalation. Likewise, changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the war continues—and its interpretation by Western allies—could make a nuclear first use more likely. Finally, non-nuclear forms of expansion of the war—whether they have already occurred or not—could pose significant challenges in moving toward de-escalation and an eventual peace agreement.

As the war drags on and pivots to a war of attrition, non-nuclear forms of expansion—be they horizontal, informational, technological, or moral—increase the likelihood of inadvertent use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.

Muddling with Western long-range missiles. In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy came to Kyiv to show support for Ukraine. When they arrived, the two officials were handed an open letter signed by 17 former British and American officials and other experts calling for urgent changes to the policy concerning US and UK missiles provided to Ukraine for use against Russia.

The specific issue was that the United States and the United Kingdom, which made available to Ukraine ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) and Storm Shadow long-range missiles, placed restrictions on the use of these missiles against targets deep into Russian territory and that these restrictions allegedly reduce the effectiveness of these missiles at a critical time in the war for Ukraine.^[1]

These experts and diplomats are not alone in criticizing the United States and its NATO allies for mistakenly softening their level of commitment to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. According to Anastasia Edel, a Russian-born American writer and social historian, Putin has victory within reach because of insufficient US and allied commitment to a winning strategy. “By first casting its lot with Ukraine and then failing to follow through, America has lost its place as the bulwark of the West that can guarantee protection and peace to its allies,” Edel wrote.^[2]

For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin again warned in early September that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by NATO to attack targets deeper into Russia would redefine the political character of the war. According to Putin, allowing Ukraine to fire Western weapons deep into Russia would mean nothing short of direct involvement:

“This will mean that NATO countries—the United States and European countries—are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”^[3]

Putin offered two reasons for his contention. First, NATO member states would have to provide Ukraine with the targeting data on Russia from NATO satellites. Second, NATO specialists would have to enter the targeting data into missile targeting systems because Ukrainians cannot do it themselves. On the other hand, since 2023, Ukraine has been using UK Storm Shadows and French-made Scalps against parts of Ukraine controlled by Russian forces and/or places Russia claims as its territory, such as Crimea.

Putin’s concern, therefore, might be that the capabilities of the most advanced versions of Storm Shadow and similar missiles would enable more devastating attacks against Russian air bases and command facilities as well as critical infrastructure deeper into Russia’s mainland. According to Simon Saradzhyan, the founding director of the Russian Matters Project at Harvard University:

“It is the damage that Storm Shadows and Scalps could cause to Russia’s military-political infrastructure, as well as to the Kremlin’s efforts to make sure the war stays in the background of most Russians’ lives so that they remain content with his rule, that may cross Putin’s red line, triggering his ‘appropriate’ response to NATO countries.”^[4]

As Saradzhyan points out, a Russian response might take the form of an attack against transit facilities for these missiles in a NATO European country, such as an air base in Poland. Such an attack could activate NATO’s Article 5, effectively expanding the conflict to a war between Russia and NATO.^[5]

Russia could also move military assets, including depots and air bases, even deeper into its territory as a passive instead of active response to longer-range missile attacks.

Changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin’s comments are a reminder of the numerous threats from the Kremlin since the beginning of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, especially over the possibility of a nuclear first use. For example, in a September 1 interview, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted that Russia is in the process of revising its doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons and accused the West of fueling an “escalation” of the war in Ukraine.^[6]

However, some US experts, including generals and diplomats, dismissed the possibility of Russian nuclear first use as lacking in credibility, arguing that:

“After more than 900 days of war, we can safely assert that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats are nothing less than an attempt to deter Ukraine’s partners from properly arming her. Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate. We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own—including Crimea and Kursk—with these weapons and Moscow’s response remains unchanged.”^[7]

To restore deterrence credibility, Russia might adjust its military doctrine concerning justifications for nuclear first use to include Ukrainian attacks on critical military and civil infrastructure targets with long-range conventional weapons.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine on “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence” was adopted in 2020. The document provided for two main scenarios under which Russia can use nuclear weapons: first, in response to an attack on the Russian Federation and/or its allies with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction; or, second, in response to an attack with conventional weapons when the very survival of the Russian state is at risk.^[8]

RELATED:

China’s openness about its latest nuclear missile test shows growing confidence vis-à-vis the United States

In a meeting with the Russian Federation Security Council standing conference on nuclear deterrence on September 25, Putin proposed several updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. First, he suggested that nuclear strategy should treat “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation and support of a nuclear state,” as a joint attack that could motivate Russia to cross the nuclear threshold. He then added that, after having received reliable information about any “massive” missile attack against Russia or its ally, Belarus, Russia would also consider resorting to a nuclear option.^[9]

Russian academic and nuclear policy expert Alexei Arbatov has argued that prolonging the war in Ukraine has led to a widespread misconception about escalation, both in the West and in Russia.^[10] The first mistaken assumption deals with the view of experts and officials in Western allies that there is no upper limit to NATO-supported Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory with conventional weapons without producing a nuclear response from Russia. In short, Russia has no red line. The second erroneous assumption, widely held among an “active political and expert lobby of fans of nuclear weapons” in Russia, Arbatov suggests, is that a very selective use of nuclear weapons by Russia will not be followed by a major war with NATO. The West will be sufficiently scared and back down.

But for Arbatov, what would follow even a limited Russian nuclear first use may be very different from what Russian leaders have in mind:

“NATO will openly enter the war and carry out at least a massive strike with conventional high-precision long-range weapons on both new and old territories of the Russian Federation. This will be followed by group nuclear strikes from the Russian side on NATO countries. In response, there will be a massive nuclear and conventional strike on Russia. We will not even be able to determine what is flying at us, and we will not have time to call the White House—contrary to the scenarios of Russian enthusiasts of a limited nuclear strike. It will be impossible to control the course of events.”^[11]

Of course, much of this speculation is scenario-dependent.

Russian military expert and deterrence theorist Dmitri Adamsky analyzes Russian threats of nuclear escalation as part of a cross-domain “coercion cocktail” that accompanies conventional war-fighting without necessarily committing the Kremlin to any specific future action. According to Adamsky, a Russian slide from nuclear rhetoric into the reality of nuclear first use would not necessarily be abrupt. It might go through several phases of demonstrative “muscle flexing” and “strategic gestures” designed to signal preparedness for escalation, if necessary, but in gradual, and potentially reversible, steps—if favorable indications come from the other side. In this view, the West would need to take notice of these measures, process that information, and act accordingly—that is, as desired by Russia—to de-escalate the situation.^[12]

Other forms of war expansion. The prevailing assumption in many discussions about the expansion of the war in Ukraine is that it would necessarily be a vertical escalation, that is, an increase in the level of destruction imposed on one side’s military or other assets by another. But this assumption is too restrictive concerning military or other options available to NATO and Russia.

First, either side might resort to horizontal escalation. Horizontal escalation occurs when one or both parties to a war extend military actions or capacity for coercive bargaining and deterrence into another country or territory. Russia has already done this once by deploying some of its military forces into Belarus, including nuclear-capable tactical launch systems. From Russia’s standpoint, NATO’s extension of its membership, which now includes Sweden and Finland, might be considered a form of horizontal escalation, especially given Finland’s elongated border with Russia.

Russia’s increasing military and diplomatic ties with China provide another possible example of horizontal escalation. Although China has no intention to get involved in direct military action in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe, it supports Russia’s efforts to push back against the rule-based international order dominated by the United States. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, China has become an even more critical economic partner for Russia since February 2022, providing Russia with a variety of economic support mechanisms to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and export controls. In addition, China is probably supplying Russia with key technology and dual-use equipment for the war in Ukraine.^[13] Russia has also received significant military assistance from North Korea and Iran.

The war could also expand through other forms, including disinformation. Both Russia and Ukraine have extensive networks of information warfare at their disposal, and their governments, allies, and other supporters blanket the internet with reports favorable to their respective sides. A war of memes, trolls, bots, and other artifacts of the information age has become intertwined with the kinetic war of infantry, armor, artillery, and air strikes—back and forth.

Sometimes military tactics appear to have been dictated by the information war, as was the case of Ukraine’s sudden strike into Kursk oblast with the objectives of shaking the Kremlin’s self-confidence and preparing an improved bargaining position in possible peace negotiations. For its part, Russian information warfare seeks to undermine the confidence of the American population in Ukraine and even in the US democratic political system, especially during a presidential election year.

Technological competition also constitutes a form of possible war expansion in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are competing in making extensive use of drones in three-dimensional land, sea, and air warfare.^[14] In addition, both sides show increased sophistication in anti-drone jamming and other countermeasures to surveillance and strikes by autonomous vehicles. Ukraine has set a new standard in its ability to generate large numbers of reliable drones on short notice for both battlefield use and deep strikes into Russian territory. Russia, however, has had to import drones from Iran to sustain its drone war. In addition to drones, Ukraine (with NATO support) and Russia have competed to field the necessary so-called C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) systems to manage combined arms battles.

RELATED:

Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it’s winning

Prolonging and maintaining the intensity of the war to exhaust the resources or patience of the other side or their allies is yet another form of expansion, through attrition.^[15] Russian political leaders and commanders—even after having been thwarted in their efforts to remove the Zelensky government in a rapid coup de main in February 2022—have remained optimistic that Russia’s larger population and resource base will eventually overwhelm Ukraine.

Ukraine has indeed been challenged to meet the demands of this war for manpower in the face of high attrition and draft resistance. Ukrainian political leaders and front fighters have also complained that the flow of weapons and ammunition from NATO allies has been insufficient in speed and size to compensate for Russia’s larger ability to push weapons and personnel into the theater of operations. On the other hand, Russia has strained to meet its recruitment goals in the face of Putin’s unwillingness to order another large mobilization of reserves. Instead, large bonuses are being paid to first-time enlistees, and Russian leaders maintain that manpower recruitment goals can be met for as long as the fighting continues. Such a strategy of attrition, in which Ukraine is supported by accelerated NATO weapons deliveries and technology innovation and Russia doubles down on troop numbers and war-supporting resources, will continue to impose high costs on each country’s fighting power and civilian infrastructure.

Finally, the expansion of the war could take a moral-ethical form over right and wrong, and the symbolism attached to states’ behavior as consistent or inconsistent with international law and human decency. The ugliness of war touches all sides, but Russia has consistently been outperformed by Ukraine in messaging the international community about the appropriateness of military operations and political strategy. Russia’s indiscriminate destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, and Putin’s claims that Ukraine is not a real country or a distinct civilization, have conceded the high ground of human rights to Ukraine and Zelensky.

Investigative journalists also contend that the Kremlin is conducting a global operation targeting Russian exiles abroad for surveillance, kidnapping, or worse.^[16] From the viewpoint of international opinion, Russia has already suffered a strategic defeat, even if it outlasts Ukraine on the battlefield and enters into an armistice or peace agreement that seems asymmetrically unfavorable to Kyiv. This moral and ethical asymmetry may not bother Vladimir Putin now, but it is likely to haunt his successors. These will need to reframe Russia’s position in Europe as something resembling a normal state instead of an outlaw regime.

Seeing through the fog. There are several ways in which the war in Ukraine can be expanded. The threat of nuclear first use (and its repercussions) is obviously in a class by itself. But it is not the only—even less, most probable—way in which the war can become more complicated, confusing, and ultimately dangerous. What is urgently needed then are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. The longer, broader, and more intense the fighting in Ukraine becomes, the more the combatants will continue to waste blood and treasure in an ugly military stalemate and a human rights disaster on both sides. Continued fighting already raises the significance and costs of horizontal, informational, technological, temporal, and/or moral-ethical expansion. It also increases the likelihood of inadvertent nuclear disaster, such as damage to nuclear facilities, all the while the possible use of weapons of mass destruction other than nuclear cannot be ruled out.

Notes

[1] For pertinent background, see: Lara Jakes, “Should Ukraine Launch Western Weapons Deep into Russia?,” New York Times, September 12, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/world/europe/biden-ukraine-strike-russia.html, also in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #196 – September 13, 2024 – davidjohnson@starpower.net

[2] Anastasia Edel, “Putin Has Victory in His Grasp,” New York Times, August 13, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/opinion/russia-ukraine-west-war.html

[3] Vladimir Putin, quoted in Anton Troianovski and Ivan Nechepurenko, “Putin Has Issued Many Warnings to the West. Is This One Different?,” New York Times, September 13, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/world/europe/russia-britain-ukraine-putin-nato-weapons.html

[4] Simon Saradzhyan, “Does Western Help With Missile Targeting Cross Putin’s Red Line in War Against Ukraine?,” Russia Matters, September 18, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #201 – September 19, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net

[5] Ibid.

[6] Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center, “Moscow escalates nuclear threats as Ukraine erases Russia’s red lines,” UkraineAlert, September 3, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/moscow-escalates-nuclear-threats-as-ukraine-erases-russias-red-lines/

[7] “Generals, Diplomats, and Civil Society Leaders Sign Open Letter to #LetUkraineStrikeBack,” September 10, 2024, https://www.letukrainestrikeback.com/post/generals-diplomats-and-leaders-sign-open-letter-to-letukrainestrikeback

[8] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence (Moscow: June 2, 2020), https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/

[9] “Kremlin reveals who nuclear doctrine change is aimed at,” www.rt.com, September 26, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #206 – September 26, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net. See also: “Putin lowers threshold of nuclear response as he issues new warnings to the West over Ukraine,” Associated Press, September 24, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #206 – September 26, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net.

[10] Alexei Arbatov, interviewed by Yuri Paniev, in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 15, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #199 – September 17, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net

[11] Ibid.

[12] Dmitry Adamsky, The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2024), esp. pp. 106-107.

[13] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Support Provided by the People’s Republic of China to Russia, July 2023 (Washington, D.C.: ODNI),

Click to access odni_report_on_chinese_support_to_russia.pdf

[14] Michael Horowitz, “Battles of Precise Mass,” (Foreign Affairs, October 22, 2024) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz

[15] Phillips P. O’Brien, “The New Red Line: Why a prolonged conflict in Ukraine makes nuclear war more likely,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 19, 2024. https://thebulletin.org/2024/09/the-new-red-line-why-a-prolonged-conflict-in-ukraine-makes-a-nuclear-attack-more-likely/

[16] Lilia Yapparova, “Putin Is Doing Something Almost Nobody Is Noticing,” New York Times, September 23, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/opinion/russia-putin-kremlin.html

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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Thursday, (10/24/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

As the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Israel refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program

WMUK

We didn’t want other countries to get nuclear weapons, but the next best thing is if nobody knew about it. … Michel Martin is the weekend host of All …

Nuclear weapons of Israel — the history of rumours photo – Бабель

Бабель

It began in October 1956, when the young Israeli government official Shimon Peres managed to obtain a nuclear reactor for his country. And later, by …

Liberal’s Nuclear Policy: Peter Dutton vs David Crisafulli | Q+A – YouTube

YouTube

The Q+A panel discussed nuclear energy in Queensland and what happens when state and federal leaders from the same party have different ideas.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Big Tech is going all in on nuclear power as sustainability concerns around AI grow

Yahoo Finance

Big Tech is increasingly looking to nuclear energy to solve its power problem. But there could be downsides.

This Sam Altman-Backed Nuclear Stock Just Doubled in a Week. Is It Too Late to Buy?

The Motley Fool

Big tech companies are partnering with nuclear energy sources to support AI energy demand. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has been the chairman of Oklo …

‘Potential issues’ with Coalition’s planned nuclear reactor sites, safety expert warns

The Guardian

Government agencies and departmental officials spend full day scrutinising Peter Dutton’s controversial plan to build seven nuclear power plants.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

FG Summons TCN, NERC to Emergency Meeting over Incessant Electricity Grid Collapse

Energy Central

… emergency on the power sector. “President Bola Tinubu should as a … AI firms’ shift to nuclear power may spark energy revolution · Municipal …

EU Asks UN Watchdog to Safeguard Ukraine’s Nuclear Plants

Asharq Al-Awsat

… emergency, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Russian forces have seized Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’ biggest, and the …

Energy enterprises need enhanced fire protection, – expert – all the latest news today – 112

112

Accidents and Emergencies … He also notes that autonomous fire protection systems are needed at large energy facilities, including nuclear power …

Nuclear War

NEWS

How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Russia’s nuclear doctrine on “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence” was adopted in 2020. The document …

China Enlarging Nuclear Forces With Eye on America: US Intel – Newsweek

Newsweek

However, the DIA suggests Beijing would likely consider a nuclear strike in the event a conventional attack threatens its nuclear forces or ” …

Russia says sending Western troops to Ukraine will lead to clash of nuclear powers

Anadolu Ajansı

Please contact us for subscription options. Related topics. Maria Zakharova NATO nuclear war Russia Sebastien Lecornu Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Corruption, Nuclear Threats, and Economic Instability Dominate National Fears in 2024

Chapman Newsroom – Chapman University

Corruption, Nuclear Threats, and Economic Instability Dominate National Fears in 2024 Chapman University Unveils Annual Survey of American Fears.

How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin’s comments are a reminder of the numerous threats from the Kremlin since the beginning of Russia’s attack …

Nuclear Attack On China — Scientists Conduct Doomsday Experiment; Test Resilience Of Beijing’s …

EurAsian Times

The Threat Of Nuclear Attack. These tests come amid heightened international nuclear concerns. Since the end of the Cold War, the role of nuclear .

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

A Geological Time Bomb: Remembering the Night That Yellowstone Exploded – Literary Hub

Literary Hub

The basin has been called by some travelers the vast crater of an ancient volcano…Indeed the geysers and hot springs of this region, at the present …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 23, 2024

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In this aerial view, the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 10, 2024. Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Wednesday, (10/23/2024)

They’re calling it the “AI Revolution”. Does that mean the same thing as the usual definition of ‘Revolution’? Coupled with “an ever increasing amount of energy?”

If so, we should be rebelling immediately, fighting desperately against AI, as well as the other “All Things Nuclear”, just as the repressed are known to do in any revolution. This whole AI concept, tied at the hip now to nuclear power, cannot be something that humanity should want to have any part of!

The last few days of taking a harder look at ‘AI’ are telling me I may be needing an accommodating like-minded sponsor or two and/or subscribers. But either way, you can rest assured that I will soon be adding an 8th media Category to “LLAW’s All Things Nuclear’s ”TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS” tentatively called “Artificial Intelligence”. ~llaw

Big Tech is driving a nuclear power revival, energy guru Dan Yergin says

Published Wed, Oct 23 20247:58 AM EDT

Natasha Turak@NatashaTurak

WATCH LIVE

Key Points

• Nuclear power appears to be making a comeback in the U.S. after years of setbacks — and big tech is the driving force.
• As tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google compete to take the lead in the AI revolution, the data centers needed to power the burgeoning technology consume an ever-increasing amount of energy.
• Long-time energy market veteran Dan Yergin described the turnaround as nothing short of extraordinary.

In this aerial view, the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 10, 2024.

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

Nuclear power may be making a comeback in the U.S. after years of setbacks — and big tech is the driving force.

As tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google compete to take the lead in the AI revolution, the data centers needed to power the burgeoning technology consume an ever-increasing amount of energy.

In the last two months, those three companies have penned deals to generate more nuclear power — perhaps most notably, Microsoft struck a 20-year agreement with Constellation Energy to restart a reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, the site of the most serious nuclear meltdown in U.S. history in 1979. The reopening is planned for 2028.

Speaking to CNBC at the annual International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, long-time energy market veteran Dan Yergin described the turnaround as nothing short of extraordinary.

“It’s amazing, the change. The nuclear industry was in the doldrums,” Yergin told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday, describing the reopening of the Three Mile Island power plant as “symbolic.”

“Big Tech is saying, ‘We need reliable 24 hour electricity. We can’t get it just from wind and solar’,” he said.

Yergin, who has written several books on energy including “The Prize” and “The New Map,” pointed to the booming funding going into the sector. He cited $7 billion in venture capital going into nuclear fusion alone — which does not include financing for nuclear fission, a different energy-generating process.

“This is a really big change, and it reflects in this country, in the United States, a sense that — we’ve had for, really, a generation of flat demand [for] electricity,” Yergin said. “Now it’s going to grow, and there’s real anxiety about, how do you grow it? And nuclear [energy] is back in form, and people are talking about small nuclear reactors. And, of course, you have big tech actually seeking to contract for the output of the electricity from existing nuclear power plants. It’s an amazing change.”

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Electricity demand is surging after staying largely flat for some 15 years, fueled by new data centers, factories, electric vehicles, and hotter and longer summers. A recent Energy Department memo cited in numerous press reports projected that U.S. power grids could see as much as 25 gigawatts of new data center demand by 2030.

Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had closed a $1.5 billion loan for the revival of the Holtec Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan in late 2025, which would make it the first American nuclear plant to be restarted. Google in mid-October said it would purchase power from Kairos Power, a developer of small modular reactors, to help “deliver on the progress of AI.”

Global electricity consumption from data centers, artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency sector is expected to double from an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2026, according to a research report from the International Energy Agency.

— CNBC’s Ryan Browne contributed to this report.

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Wednesday, (10/23/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Daily on Energy: A lot of nuclear news, DOE looks to boost battery manufacturing, and a …

Washington Examiner

In today’s edition of Daily on Energy, Callie and Maydeen take a look at all things nuclear and include a breakdown of all the recent deals backing …

As the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Israel refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program – NPR

NPR

All Things Considered · Fresh Air · Up First. Featured. The NPR Politics … NPR’s Michel Martin speaks with Victor Gilinsky, a former commissioner of …

As the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Israel refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program

WBAA

Michel Martin is the weekend host of All Things Considered, where she draws on her deep reporting and interviewing experience to dig in to the week’s …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Big Tech is driving a nuclear power revival, energy guru Dan Yergin says – CNBC

CNBC

… nuclear reactors. And, of course, you have big tech actually seeking to contract for the output of the electricity from existing nuclear power plants.

Energy Secretary talks Big Tech’s nuclear energy push – YouTube

YouTube

Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) have recently been at the forefront of deals involving Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) for …

US Energy Secretary talks Big Tech’s clean nuclear energy push – Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm joins Market Domination to discuss this energy transition and its implications. Granholm explains that AI …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

La Salle And Grundy County Officials Ready For Nuclear Plant Emergency Response Test

Starved Rock Media

… nuclear power plant emergency. Every two years, first responders and units of government surrounding the La Salle Nuclear Power Station near …

In one of the regions, electricity outage schedules have been introduced – 112

112

… emergency situations at power plants or equipment overload. It is … On October 9, the NNEGC “Energoatom” completed the repair of a nuclear …

Nuclear War

NEWS

If a China and America war went nuclear, who would win? | Mint

Mint

In the exercise scenario, it is 2032 and a war over Taiwan has been raging for 45 days. China uses “theatre” nuclear weapons—with a shorter range and …

The Potential for Russia to Supercharge North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Program

The Heritage Foundation

Introduction Over the past two and a half years, the Russian–North Korean relationship has changed fundamentally. Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un …

As the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Israel refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program

WWNO

NPR’s Michel Martin speaks with Victor Gilinsky, a former commissioner of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, about Israel’s nuclear capabilities.

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Is the nuclear threat higher in 2024 than during the Cold War? – Meta-Defense.fr

Meta-Defense.fr

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the nuclear threat has been regularly brandished by Moscow. These repeated threats from Moscow are …

Kim Jong Un Issues Nuclear Warning To US as North Korea Grows Arsenal – Newsweek

Newsweek

North Korean leader has called America’s nuclear weapons an “ever-increasing threat.”

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un visits missile bases, slams US nuclear means – Reuters

Reuters

The U.S. strategic nuclear means pose an “ever-increasing threat” to North Korea’s security environment and long-term threats demand Pyongyang’s ” .

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Oct 22, 2024

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A regulatory loophole means nuclear power stations in the U.S. are ubiquitously using unregulated AI. (Art by Midjourney for Fierce Network)

LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Tuesday, (10/22/2024)

LLAW’s View of what we need to know and understand about the future of AI: (Related Op-Ed article below by Fierce News)

AI (Artificial Intelligence) will destroy the Internet and take humanity right along with it. If it has not already done so, it is well on its way to ruling over our human intelligence. The end result of AI’s purpose, whether we think so or not, will be absolute control of human life, our functionality automatically fed from it every day, allowing without knowing it to influence and control us without recognition of its manipulating purposes. In short, we are controlled by AI, not the other way around . . .

The Internet is the most powerful communications tool ever conceived by man, but few of us have ever learned how to use it as the tool it was meant to be, so just a few of us can easily control the rest of us. Combined with useful automation-like service systems such as banking, shopping, chatting, remote friendships, and useful exchange of news and other important information among those of us who otherwise live our lives in community, it is also useful, but there is absolutely no rightful place for AI’s ability to control how, what, when, and where we live our daily human lives. AI must be a subject to us — a useful instrument — but never should it be allowed equality status to human thought or intelligence because if it can it will. And then it will control us.

And yet AI, with its intellectual design (which is increasing every day),compared to us both individually and collectively and our naturally inferior intelligence, equality and loss of superiority is exactly what we see happening to us– especially with expressing ourselves as sentient individuals in our speech, writing, opinions, and deductive reasoning through, for instance, our relationships, jobs, social media together with online commercial marketing and advertising that are gradually leading us toward a future of a forgotten and wasted once unique way of living a personal and individualistic life.

If we are to survive as a species, we must change our direction and follow our own destiny, not the dictatorially enslaved purpose of Artificial Intelligence and those who believe they can manipulate it, even though they are wrong.

AI is led by mankind’s own ingenuous and foolish creative capabilities of AI, expecting it to function for us rather than with us as just another useful ingredient in our our own right to make our own decisions. That is not AI’s objective, nor the objectives of those who think they can control it. ~llaw

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Today’s related Op-Ed article:

Op-Ed: AI infiltrates US nuclear plants via unregulated back door

By Stephen M Saunders MBE Oct 21, 2024 10:43am

artificial intelligence (AI) Op-Ed nuclear power

• The U.S. has no regulatory agency policing AI usage in the the country’s nuclear sector, unlike in Europe and China
• Prioritizing rapid innovation over safety increases the risk of catastrophic failures in North America
• Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google oppose regulation, and will increase the nuclear safety risks of unregulated AI

Nuclear power is supposed to be one of the most stringently controlled industries in the world, but a regulatory loophole  actually, more of a yawning chasm — means that nuclear power stations in the U.S. are ubiquitously using unregulated artificial intelligence (AI) for everything from control systems to anomaly detection to autonomous robotic systems.

It’s yet another example of how far behind the rest of the world the U.S. is in its approach to the deployment of advanced technologies like AI, automation and predictive analytics.

How big a problem is the nuclear AI free-for-all? Several founding fathers of AI, including Stuart Russell and Nick Bostrom, have recently had Oppenheimer-style “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds” moments, warning of the catastrophic consequences of unrestrained AI deployment — and unregulated AI in nuclear energy is exactly the kind of scenario they are concerned about.

Related

FNTV: Unregulated AI in US nuclear power – a looming crisis?

All it takes is one AI agent to misinterpret reactor sensor data and reduce water flow to the cooling tank, and — presto — Fukushima meltdown or Chernobyl core-collapse-plus-steam-explosion.

Unlike Europe and China, which both have centralized, comprehensive systems of rubrics designed to allow AI innovation without compromising public safety, the U.S. has devolved the responsibility of defining AI governance to no less than 13 national agencies — from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the Department of Transportation (DoT). And this number doesn’t include state and local government regulators.

It’s a bizarre strategy, and has left the U.S. with no agency specifically tasked with AI oversight in the nuclear industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the main agency responsible for regulating the overall safety and security of civilian nuclear facilities and materials, has no regulations focused on AI. At all.

The reason for this nuclear logic bomb is cultural. China and Europe have chosen to prioritize safety over speed, but the U.S. has an innovation-at-all-costs approach designed to fast-track technology and foster competition with fewer upfront restrictions. But is “move fast and break things” really the way to go when the application is nuclear energy?

The fact is, today, we don’t even really know how and why the most advanced AI models make decisions—the so-called Black Box problem.

Things will only get worse as Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Facebook sally forth into nuclear power, armed only with egotism and huge piles of money. The hyperscalers are vehemently opposed to any regulation and once they are in the nuclear game will absolutely employ their vast financial resources on legal battles to prevent restrictions on AI usage.

And don’t expect the U.S. government to step in to save us from the fallout of all this stupidity. It can’t even work out how to stop disturbed adolescents from shooting pre-schoolers with military-grade assault rifles. The chances that any U.S. administration will do anything coherent about the nuclear AI free-for-all are ground zero.

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Subscribed

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are two Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Tuesday, (10/22/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Global nuclear capacity must triple to meet climate goals: World Nuclear Association – YouTube

YouTube

… 31:25 · Go to channel. Bob Woodward on Trump, Harris, and war in Ukraine | All Things Considered | NPR. NPR New 172K views · 20:07 · Go to channel …

What is Big Tech’s rush to nuclear power telling us? – Finshots

Finshots

Cut to today, nuclear power contributes to about 20% of all electricity in the US. So, what changed? Enter Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which …

Nuclear-Powered AI: Big Tech’s Bold Solution or a Pipedream? – WSJ

Wall Street Journal

Under the deal’s terms, Google committed to backing about seven reactors to be built by nuclear-energy startup Kairos Power. The goal is to add 500 …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Three Mile Island nuclear plant gears up for Big Tech reboot | Reuters

Reuters

Giant cooling towers at Constellation Energy’s Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania have sat dormant for so long that grass has sprung …

Nuclear–Powered AI: Big Tech’s Bold Solution or a Pipedream? – WSJ

Wall Street Journal

Amazon, Google and Microsoft are investing billions in nuclear power, but the projects are years away and rely on unproven technology.

Rundown: All nuclear plants extended, revived, or planned as energy demand soars

Washington Examiner

Nuclear power has seen a revival throughout 2024, thanks in large part to soaring energy demand from the tech sector. At least two retired plants …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Drones, robot dogs debut in radiation accident emergency drill – Global Times

Global Times

Wu Mingming, a deputy director of the Health, Safety and Environment Department at State Nuclear Power Plant Service Co Ltd, told The Paper that …

Gov’t proposes state monopoly on nuclear power investment – VOV

VOV

… nuclear power plants, citing the need to ensure national energy security … emergency power sources and grids, power transmission networks …

Kyslytsya at the UN Security Council called on states to prevent RF attacks on nuclear power … – 112

112

Specifically, air strikes on energy facilities threaten the electricity supply necessary for the operation of cooling systems at nuclear power plants.

Nuclear War

NEWS

Ireland and NZ co-sponsor UN resolution calling for study on effects of nuclear war

Toda Peace Institute

The last such UN study was in 1988, more than 30 years ago. The UN resolution “Nuclear War Effects and Scientific Research” is sponsored by Ireland …

Remarks in Kyiv by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom …

Department of Defense

And I’d like to start by echoing the words of President Kennedy in his historic 1963 speech in Berlin. There are some who say that they don’t …

Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (As Delivered)

Department of Defense

And the Kremlin started the largest war in Europe since World War … And even as Putin makes profoundly reckless and dangerous threats about nuclear …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Middle East crisis live: Iran warns UN about Israel’s threats against its nuclear sites

The Guardian

“Threats to attack nuclear sites are against UN resolutions …. And are … The WHO Europe has already facilitated 600 medical evacuations from Gaza to …

Ukraine Can Go Nuclear — Should it? – CEPA

CEPA

It’s far from an idle threat, as most NATO governments will know. Not only does Ukraine have extensive civil nuclear facilities and supplies, it also …

Nuclear Arms Control Initiatives Detached From International Security Realities ‘Are Like …

Meetings Coverage and Press Releases – the United Nations

… nuclear war. Iran’s representative spoke about the United Kingdom’s new … He deemed unacceptable the Russian Federation’s threats to nuclear 

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone’s Ebbing Nuphar Lake – National Parks Traveler

National Parks Traveler

Editor’s note:Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles is a weekly column written by scientists and collaborators of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Light Mag. 3.0 Earthquake – Alboran Sea, 40 km Northeast of Al Hoceima, Tanger-Tetouan …

Volcano Discovery

… caldera and picturesque villages. Discover its fascinating … Yellowstone quakes · Yellowstone quakes · Latest earthquakes under Yellowstone volcano