“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jul 30, 2024

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It’s time to reduce the likelihood of the day after . . .

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Tuesday, (07/30/2024)

Not only you and me, but everybody else on planet Earth should be more than concerned, but absolutely terrified, about the future of nuclear war if Donald J. Trump should win the November presidential election. America and the world cannot let that happen.

This article from the “The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” not only tells us why, but given the possibility of Trump winning the election, the article tells us how Trump’s authority to single-handedly start a nuclear war might be prevented. But of course, though, the absolute best way to avoid such a “threat” is to elect Kamala Harris and send Trump packing . . . ~llaw

Trump could win back the nuclear codes. Biden should put guardrails on the nuclear arsenal—now.

By Tom Z. Collina | July 30, 2024

It’s time to reduce the likelihood of the day after.

On January 6, 2021, then-President Donald Trump inspired a mob attack on the US Capitol to try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to the Biden administration. Not only was this an unprecedented attack on American democracy, but it represented a serious national security threat. Many saw and see this as one of many examples of an unstable President Trump acting in dangerous, irrational ways. And throughout his time in office, Trump—like all presidents in the nuclear age—had the unilateral authority to launch the US nuclear arsenal.

At any moment, Trump could literally have ended the world with a phone call. Congressional approval is not needed, and the secretary of defense cannot stop a presidential order to unleash the US nuclear arsenal. The system is built for speed, not deliberation. The whole process, from presidential order to the launch of one or hundreds of nuclear warheads, would take just minutes.

The danger that Trump would do something catastrophic was so acute that then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi desperately looked for ways to prevent the “unstable president from … accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike,” according to a letter Pelosi wrote in January 2021 to House Democrats in the wake of the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley was convinced that Trump had suffered “serious mental decline in the aftermath of the election” and took the extraordinary step of ordering his staff to come to him if they received a nuclear strike order from the president. “No matter what you are told, you do the procedure. You do the process. And I’m part of that procedure,” Milley reportedly told the officers. “You never know what a president’s trigger point is.”

Pelosi and Milley had plenty of reasons to worry that Trump could start a nuclear war. In August 2017, in a thinly veiled nuclear threat, Trump warned North Korea that it would be “met with fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before.” Trump mocked Kim Jong Un, the North’s leader, writing “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!” According to then-White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, Trump privately discussed the idea of using a nuclear weapon against North Korea and suggested he could blame a US strike on another country.

RELATED:

No debate: On existential threats, Biden, Trump, and CNN all largely failed

Actually, however, Milley was not correct when he told his staff that he was part of the formal procedure to launch nuclear weapons. As former Defense Secretary William J. Perry and I wrote in our 2020 book, The Button, policy established during the Cold War puts decisions about the use of nuclear weapons solely in the hands of the civilian president, not Congress and above all not the military. All the president need do is call the Pentagon’s War Room—using the nuclear “football” or some other means—and identify himself and give the order to launch. The president may choose to consult with senior advisors such as Milley but is not required to.

Milley broke these rules, as others broke them before him. During the Watergate crisis, then-Defense Secretary James Schlesinger was so concerned about President Richard Nixon’s mental state and alcohol consumption that he told military commanders that if Nixon ordered a nuclear strike, they should check with him or Secretary of State Henry Kissinger first. Sen. Alan Cranston phoned Schlesinger, warning him about “the need for keeping a berserk president from plunging us into a holocaust.”

Should Milley, Schlesinger, or any military leader, let a clearly unstable president start a nuclear war just to follow protocol? Of course not. But officials should not have to break the rules to do the right thing. The United States needs to change the policy that put Milley and Schlesinger in an impossible spot.

With just six months left in office, President Biden can fix the system for himself and all future presidents. To do so, Biden should announce the White House will share authority to use nuclear weapons in any first strike with a select group in Congress. The Constitution gives Congress the authority to declare war, not the president. The first use of nuclear weapons is clearly an act of war. In a situation where the United States has already been attacked with nuclear weapons, the president would retain the option to act unilaterally.

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Is there any debate? This is the existential threat scorecard you need to rate the Biden and Trump matchup

President Biden would have to make such a policy change by executive order. Passing congressional legislation would be more durable but is unlikely in the current political environment. If Trump wins the election, he would likely reverse Biden’s order. But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the new policy could be strengthened over time with legislation.

Such a policy would provide clear directives for the military to follow: A launch could be ordered only if the United States had already been attacked with nuclear weapons or if Congress had approved the decision, providing a constitutional check to executive power. This would be infinitely safer than our current doctrine.

As an important part of his legacy, President Biden must put guardrails on presidential authority to start nuclear war now before the next dangerous leader gets elected—whomever and whenever that may be. We must never again entrust the fate of the world to just one fallible human. This is not about whose finger should be on the button. This is about making good policy that can keep Americans—and people around the world—alive, regardless of whom US voters happen to put in the White House.

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus story available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Tuesday, (07/30/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

‘The Boiling Moat’ argues U.S. should prepare to help Taiwan defend against China

KERA News

All Things Considered. Next Up: 5:00 PM Notes From America. 0:00. 0:00. All … INSKEEP: Does the United States even have to be prepared for a nuclear …

‘The Boiling Moat’ argues U.S. should prepare to help Taiwan defend against China | KALW

KALW

All Things Considered. KALW. All Things Considered. Next Up: 4:00 PM … I don’t think that the risk of nuclear war is high at all. INSKEEP: I …

‘The Boiling Moat’ argues U.S. should prepare to help Taiwan defend against China

WCMU Public Radio

All Things Considered · Destination Out · Fresh Air · Here and Now · Homespun … INSKEEP: Does the United States even have to be prepared for a nuclear …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Nuclear is a toxic idea … here’s why – Environment Victoria

Environment Victoria

Clean energy is already here, generating 40% of our electricity in 2023! It’s on our rooftops, co-existing on farms, embraced by local businesses, and …

Why nuclear energy is not the solution to the climate crisis – UBC News

UBC News – The University of British Columbia

In this Q&A, Dr. M.V. Ramana discusses key insights from his new book and why nuclear power does not help mitigate climate change.

These states have the most nuclear reactors – Quartz

Quartz

Nuclear power is considered an important way to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near future. Though there have long been safety fears …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

US buys 4.65 million barrels for emergency oil stockpile – Reuters

Reuters

The U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday it had finalized a contract to purchase 4.65 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum …

Gas leaks burden emergency services – PIRG

PIRG

PSE Health Energy released a new study analyzing the burden on emergency response services due to uncombusted gas leaks. … Nuclear power risks …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Putin often cites Russia’s ‘nuclear doctrine’ governing the use of atomic weapons. But what is it?

ABC News – The Walt Disney Company

In a blunt signal to discourage the West from increasing military support for Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin says Russia could revise its …

A Nuclear Posture Review for the Next Administration: Building the Nuclear Arsenal of the …

The Heritage Foundation

Without a credible American deterrent, the autocrats in Beijing and Moscow will become increasingly likely to use nuclear coercion against America and …

Trump could win back the nuclear codes. Biden should put guardrails on the nuclear arsenal—now.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

As an important part of his legacy, President Biden should put guardrails on presidential authority to start nuclear war now before the next …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Putin often cites Russia’s ‘nuclear doctrine’ governing the use of atomic weapons. But what is it?

ABC News – The Walt Disney Company

On Day 1 of the war, Putin said “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian …

A Nuclear Posture Review for the Next Administration: Building the Nuclear Arsenal of the …

The Heritage Foundation

… threatened the West with nuclear war. As the war in Ukraine drags on … The evolving nature of non-nuclear strategic threats, including the growing …

What Public Opinion Says About the Use of Nuclear Weapons | The MIT Press Reader

The MIT Press Reader

Vladimir Putin has issued nuclear threats in the context of the Russo-Ukraine War. As president, Donald Trump publicly warned North Korea of possible 

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Scientists find proof of April hydrothermal explosion in Yellowstone – Buckrail

Buckrail

But as part of the new Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Caldera System, a monitoring station was installed at the Norris …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jul 29, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Monday, (07/29/2024)

What a pleasant surprise today to find this article in my “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA automated daily collection in the “Nuclear Power” category of listings. I had almost decided, as I read through today’s material, to Post a story by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists titled: Interview: Rose Gottemoeller on the precarious future of arms control from the “All Things Nuclear” category, which you might want to read on your own.

But instead, Mr. M.V. Ramana’s factual and brilliant excerpt from his recently published book, Nuclear Is Not the Solution: The Folly of Atomic Power in the Age of Climate Change because he elaborated with absolute both educated and practical technical facts, pointing out and clearly explaining several of my own concerns about why we mistakenly think or even believe that nuclear power could possibly save our increasingly desperate environmental problems.

With constantly increasing global warming/climate change from CO2 and other greenhouse gasses caused by our never-ending reliance on producing energy by burning fossil fuels, we are already contributing to the immanent demise of humanity and other life hand-in-hand with burning radioactive uranium in nuclear power plants, thereby doubly ensuring planet Earth’s 6th Extinction. ~llaw

Literary Hub

Via Verso Books

Atomic Fallacy: Why Nuclear Power Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis

M.V. Ramana Debunks Some Common Arguments About Energy In an Era of Ecological Emergency

By M.V. Ramana

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July 29, 2024

I am scared about how fast climate change is disrupting our world. At a theoretical level, I have known for decades about growing carbon dioxide emissions and resultant changes to global and local temperatures, sea-level rise, severe storms, wildfires, and so on. But it was not till 2012, when Hurricane Sandy hit the northeast of the United States, that I was directly impacted. The power of that storm was immense, but I knew—theoretically, of course—that people elsewhere had experienced far worse storms.

More recently—in August 2023, as I was finishing this book—it was the turn of wildfires. As the McDougall Creek wildfire came closer to the University of British Columbia (UBC) campus in Kelowna, students and staff were asked to evacuate. My daughter Shruti is a student there. Because it was summer, she was at home in the Vancouver campus of UBC, where I teach. Had the fires occurred just two weeks later, I would have definitely been panicking.

I can go on for much longer in this vein. But there isn’t any need. Just about anyone alive today has been impacted in some way by climate change. Others have written at length about how the climate crisis is intensifying by the year, and one can stock a small library with published books about the myriad risks flowing from climate change. The library would be even larger if one included literature on the other related multiple cascading ecological crises we are confronting.

Although climate change scares me, I am even more scared of a future with more nuclear plants.

As someone trained in physics, and as an academic paid to research, I have been drawn to studying one essential contributor to these crises: how energy and electricity are produced, especially those methods proposed to mitigate climate change. Prominent among these proposals is nuclear energy.

Although climate change scares me, I am even more scared of a future with more nuclear plants. Increasing how much energy is produced with nuclear reactors would greatly exacerbate the risk of severe accidents like the one at Chernobyl, expand how much of our environment is contaminated with radioactive wastes that remain hazardous for millennia, and last but not least, make catastrophic nuclear war more likely.

Some might argue that these risks are the price we must pay to counter the threat of climate change. I disagree, but even if one were to adopt this position, my research shows that nuclear energy is just not a feasible solution to climate change. A nuclear power plant is a really expensive way to produce electricity. And nuclear energy simply cannot be scaled fast enough to match the rate at which the world needs to lower carbon emissions to stay under 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even 2 degrees.

Cost and the slow rate of deployment largely explain why the share of global electricity produced by nuclear reactors has been steadily declining, from around 16.9 percent in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was signed, to 9.2 percent in 2022. In contrast, as the costs of wind and solar energy declined dramatically, and modern renewables (which do not include large dams) went from supplying 1.2 percent of the world’s electricity in 1997 to 14.4 percent in 2022.

Another contrast is revealing. When pro-nuclear advocates talk about solving climate change with nuclear energy, they call for building lots and lots of reactors. The World Nuclear Association, for example, proposes building thousands of nuclear reactors, which would together be capable of generating a million megawatts of electricity, by 2050. Such a goal is completely at odds with historical rates of building nuclear reactors.

Some proponents of nuclear energy refuse to give up on the technology. They blame the decline in nuclear energy and the high costs and long construction periods on the characteristics of older reactor designs, arguing that alternative designs will rescue nuclear energy from its woes. In recent years, the alternatives most often advertised are small modular (nuclear) reactors—SMRs for short. These are designed to generate between 10 and 300 megawatts of power, much less than the 1,000–1,600 megawatts that reactors being built today are designed to produce.

For over a decade now, many of my colleagues and I have consistently explained why these reactors would not be commercially viable and why they would never resolve the undesirable consequences of building nuclear power plants. I first started examining small modular reactors when I worked at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security. Our group largely comprised physicists, and we used a mixture of technical assessments, mathematical techniques, and social-science-based methods to study various problems associated with these technologies. My colleague Alex Glaser, for example, used neutronics models to calculate how much uranium would be required as fuel for SMRs, which we then used to estimate the increased risk of nuclear weapons proliferation from deploying such reactors. Zia Mian, originally from Pakistan, and I showed why the technical characteristics of SMRs would not allow for simultaneously solving the four key problems identified with nuclear power: its high costs, its accident risks, the difficulty of dealing with radioactive waste, and its linkage with the capacity to make nuclear weapons. My colleagues and I also undertook case studies on Jordan, Ghana, and Indonesia, three countries advertised by SMR vendors as potential customers, and showed that despite much talk, none of them were investing in SMRs, because of various country-specific reasons such as public opposition and institutional interests.

We were not the only people coming up with reasons for not believing in the claim that new reactor designs would solve all these problems. Other scientists and analysts also highlighted the dangers and false promises of SMRs.

Nuclear advocates are not deterred by such arguments. They insist that this time it will be different. Nuclear plants would be cheap, would be quick to build, would be safe, would never have to be shut down in unplanned ways, and would not be affected by climate-related extreme weather events. The evidence from the real world, which I elaborate on later, suggests otherwise. Nuclear reactors are unlikely to possess any of these characteristics, let alone all of them. Thus, what is actually being advocated might be termed faux nuclear plants, existing only in the imagination of some, not in the real world.

My bottom line is that nuclear energy, whether with old reactor designs or new faux alternatives, will simply not resolve the climate crisis. The threat from climate change is urgent. The world has neither the financial resources nor the luxury of time to expand nuclear power. Meanwhile, even a limited expansion would aggravate a range of environmental and ecological risks. Further, nuclear energy is deeply imbricated in creating the conditions for nuclear annihilation. Expanding nuclear power would leave us in the worst of both worlds.

*

Proponents of nuclear energy have other reasons to support their preferred technology. They argue that nuclear reactors can do much more than just generate electricity. The “much more” depends on the specific context, and could include creating well-paying jobs, boosting national pride, providing energy independence, supplying clean water, and producing medical isotopes to treat cancer. As the public has become more concerned about climate change, nuclear advocates have appended to this list two more applications for energy from nuclear reactors: capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (direct air capture) and producing hydrogen and high-temperature heat for industrial processes.

All of these are reminiscent of what Admiral Lewis Strauss, one of the central characters in the hit Hollywood film Oppenheimer and the chair of the US Atomic Energy Commission in the 1950s, told the National Association of Science Writers on September 16, 1954. Ten days after the groundbreaking for first US nuclear plant, Strauss told his audience that given the great promise of nuclear technology, it would not be “too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter.”

It is the weakness of the nuclear industry that forces it to seek alliances with other constituencies.

The many claims about what else nuclear reactors can do make one wonder: Is nuclear energy too virtuous to meter?

Let me offer one example from a company called Hyperion Power Generation offering a small nuclear power plant design that was actively covered in the media between 2007 and 2012. In March 2010, the founder of this company, John Deal, told the Albuquerque Journal, “We started this company to clean water in Africa…Our emphasis is helping people not die from not having clean water…If you’ve got energy, you can have all the clean water you want.”

This was not a one-off sales pitch. In their 2011 article in Issues in Science and Technology, writer Ross Carper and academic Sonja Schmid offer this description of Deal in action:

In the middle of Deal’s talk in Denver, he began flipping through some artist-drawn images. The most striking of all shows a small nuclear reactor, buried and unattended at what looked to be less than 15 feet below the surface. Two simple tubes snake upward from the reactor, drawing the eye to a pair of gray above-ground tanks, with the words “Potable Water” stamped on the side. The setting? An impoverished African village complete with about a dozen mud-constructed, thatch-roofed huts. A handful of people were drawn into the image, all of them walking to or from the clean water source, which is apparently powered by a $50 million HPM.

HPM stands for Hyperion Power Module, the nuclear reactor the company was advertising, and the cost estimate of $50 million for a nuclear reactor should be seen in that light as wishfully cheap. (A few years later, PitchBook, a database of private equity-based corporations, listed the company as “out of business.”)

Such promises of atomic energy delivering progress to Africa date back to the beginning of the nuclear age. On January 28, 1947, for example, Waldemar Kaempffert, the science editor of the New York Times, predicted,

The desert of Sahara could easily be irrigated by electric pumps driven by uranium power, with the result that more surplus cotton than we could sell at a profit and more surplus plant food than we could eat would be dumped on the market. Africa would be transformed into another Europe, with savages [sic!] who never saw a steam shovel or railway train transformed into machine tenders.

After more than half a century of experience with nuclear technology, ideas about using it to provide clean water to poor people are delusional at worst and deceptively self-serving at best. Reducing the problem of insufficient clean water to an absence of energy ignores the many other problems that prevent African villagers from accessing clean water and the persisting legacies of colonialism and imperialism that led to “underdevelopment” in the first place.

In his “communal memoir” of the aerospace industry Blue Sky Dream, the journalist David Beers talks about a special characteristic of the former Nazi rocket scientist Wernher von Braun, the man sometimes termed “the father of America’s space program” due to his important role in transferring rocket technology to the United States.

The classic American entrepreneurial hero searches out unmet desires in the everyday world and then, with a certain flexible flair, invents the answers, products for the masses to use. Von Braun’s genius lay elsewhere. He was brilliant at inventing new and different uses for the only product he ever desired to make, the space rocket. He was a master at selling his one product to the only customers who could ever afford it, a nation’s rulers.

Much like von Braun, vendors and advocates of nuclear power are really interested only in selling nuclear reactors, and they try to invent different uses for their favored product. Delivering clean water, heating houses or industries, and propelling rockets and ships are all only vehicles for selling nuclear reactors. However, the appeal to other uses for nuclear reactors is also, simultaneously, an expression of the inability of the technology to economically deliver on its primary product: electricity. It is the weakness of the nuclear industry that forces it to seek alliances with other constituencies.

__________________________________

From Nuclear Is Not the Solution: The Folly of Atomic Power in the Age of Climate Change by M.V. Ramana. Copyright © 2024. Available from Verso Books.

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are 3 Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Monday, (07/29/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Interview: Rose Gottemoeller on the precarious future of arms control

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

However, I like to point out two things about the “program of record” nuclear modernization. … nuclear weapon: ‘A Bomb for all Asians and Africans’.

Putin threatens to restart production of mid-range nuclear weapons – KULR-8

KULR-8

All the attributes of the Cold War with the direct confrontation are … Great Things in Great Falls – July 27, 2024 · Attorney General ghost …

What will a new push for nuclear energy look like in Missouri and Illinois? – STLPR

STLPR

That’s about a quarter of Ameren’s 2023 electricity — and all of that nuclear power was carbon-free. Callaway Energy Center’s cooling tower on …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

A Radical Reboot of Nuclear Energy – YouTube

YouTube

Nuclear power, once the great hope for a clean way to meet the world’s energy needs, fell out of favor decades ago.

Construction starts on two new Chinese units – World Nuclear News

World Nuclear News

The pouring of first concrete has been announced for both unit 5 at the Ningde nuclear power plant in Fujian Province and unit 1 of the Shidaowan …

Atomic Fallacy: Why Nuclear Power Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis – Literary Hub

Literary Hub

Prominent among these proposals is nuclear energy. Although climate change scares me, I am even more scared of a future with more nuclear plants.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management Centre – Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi Police …

mediaoffice.abudhabi

… Disaster Management Centre – Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi Police have conducted training for the emergency response members of Barakah Nuclear Energy

Atomic Fallacy: Why Nuclear Power Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis – Literary Hub

Literary Hub

Ramana Debunks Some Common Arguments About Energy In an Era of Ecological Emergency. By M.V. Ramana. July 29, 2024. I am scared about how fast …

Nuclear War

NEWS

North Korea May Test Nuclear Missile Around U.S. Election, South Warns | TIME

Time

North Korea has a habit of timing its provocations to coincide with major political events, and Kim has rolled out new warheads capable of …

Russian President Putin Issues Nuclear Threat over US’ Announcement – YouTube

YouTube

Russian President Putin Issues Nuclear Threat over US’ Announcement | Vantage with Palki Sharma Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a …

‘The Boiling Moat’ argues U.S. should prepare to help Taiwan defend against China – WUFT

WUFT

NPR’s Steve Inskeep talks to Matt Pottinger, editor of “The Boiling Moat,” about the U.S. protecting Taiwan from an ever-encroaching China.

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Germany Says Will Not Be ‘Intimidated’ by Putin’s Nuclear Threats – The Moscow Times

The Moscow Times

Germany said on Monday it was not deterred by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to relaunch production of intermediate-range nuclear …

In a Perilous Time: Nuclear Dangers, Politics, and the New Cold War

Pressenza – International Press Agency

… risks escalation to nuclear war. The refusal of the nuclear powers and others to eliminate the nuclear and climate existential threats places the …

Berlin ‘Will Not be Intimidated’ by Moscow’s Nuclear Threats, Says German Foreign Minister

Kyiv Post

Berlin ‘Will Not be Intimidated’ by Moscow’s Nuclear Threats, Says German Foreign Minister … Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

After Biscuit Basin explosion, Yellowstone will look into tracking hydothermal booms | Local

Jackson Hole News & Guide

A continuous gas-monitoring station operates near Yellowstone National Park’s Norris Geyser Basin. Scientists with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory …

The Best Social Media Follows Right Now Are Actual Mountains – The Daily Beast

The Daily Beast

Yellowstone itself lacks zest, but the parody accounts for the Yellowstone Caldera and Supervolano are on it. Lake Tahoe likes to riff and each of …

The theory says that complex life on Earth may be much older than previously thought.

La Ronge Northerner

Yellowstone caldera, sometimes referred to as the Yellowstone supervolcano, is a volcanic caldera and supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park in…

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jul 28, 2024

1

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Fusion has often been criticised for always being ’10 years away’

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Sunday, (07/28/2024)

Every few days, or so it seems, I read an optimistic article about how ‘fusion’ nuclear power will replace ‘fission’ nuclear power (sometimes so optimistic that the possibility is “just right around the corner.”) Some media discusses the latest ‘fusion’ breakthroughs as the future of nuclear power and will save us from global warming/climate change created by CO2 and other greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fuel power plants such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Rest assured: that will not happen.

Why? Because, simply said, “fusion” is not a feasible alternative because the best guess of it ever becoming a reality is somewhere nearer the turn of the century (2100), and even by then the probability is extremely doubtful. We have only recently taken the first baby-step into creating fusion on earth.

Here is a brief AI review: “In February 2024, European researchers at the Joint European Torus (JET) facility in the UK set a new world record for sustained and controlled fusion energy, producing 69 megajoules of energy over five seconds. This was triple the amount of energy produced in similar tests in 1997, and enough to power 41,000 homes for five seconds.”

Prior to that the only positive controlled fusion energy was of an even smaller time frame accomplished by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in December of 2023 — just the 2nd time a reactor produced more energy than it consumed. So the only positive thing that can be said about nuclear fusion is that it is possible because it has been done, but only on the smallest of positive scales.

So it baffles me how anyone can say that we will be ‘feasting’ on ‘fusion’ by mid-century. It seems to me that it cannot happen before the turn of the century, and of course, given our history of misunderstanding how to safely handle ‘all things nuclear’, will such a power plant be safe for humanity’s best minds to achieve? I think not. Some of the best minds in the short history of “harnessing” nuclear fission or fusion, including Albert Einstein, have, long ago, said something akin to “forget about it”. ~llaw

The huge challenges in creating fusion power plant

Greig Watson

BBC East Midlands

Fusion has often been criticised for always being ’10 years away’

The project to build a nuclear fusion reactor in Nottinghamshire has been described as the “UK’s Nasa moment”.

But beyond the optimism of an event showcasing the scheme, how close is it to becoming a reality?

Is the promise of clean, cheap and secure energy still obscured by huge scientific, engineering and economic hurdles? And is it safe?

Two experts give us their take.

Former coal fired power station West Burton A, near Retford, was chosen as the location for the Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP), in October 2022.

However, even if investors are found and construction completed on schedule, the facility is unlikely to open before 2040.

Explaining the process, Dr Aneeqa Khan, lecturer in nuclear materials at the University of Manchester, said: “Nuclear fusion is the process that powers the Sun, where two nuclei fuse together, liberating huge amounts of energy.

“Recreating the conditions in the centre of the Sun on Earth is a huge challenge.

“We need to heat up isotopes of hydrogen gas so they become the fourth state of matter, called plasma.

“In order for the nuclei to fuse together on Earth, we need temperatures 10 times hotter than the Sun – around 100 million Celsius.”

The promise of fusion is great – but so are the challenges

Dr Brian Appelbe, a research fellow in nuclear fusion at Imperial College London, said fusion differed from traditional nuclear power – fission – in several fundamental ways.

He said: “Fission is about breaking heavy element apart, fusion is about forcing lighter element together.

“The amounts of energy that are released with fusion are far higher than fission.

“And the elements being used, like hydrogen, are far more widely available than the fission fuels. Some, like deuterium, a form of hydrogen, can be sourced from sea water.

“This is a much cleaner source of energy because it makes less radioactive material and it is radioactivity which doesn’t last as long.”

Dr Khan added: “We are still a way off commercial fusion. Building a fusion power plant also has many engineering and materials challenges.

“However, investment in fusion is growing and we are making real progress.

“We need to be training up a huge number of people with the skills to work in the field and I hope the technology will be used in the latter half of the century.

“Global collaboration is key in achieving this.”

Dr Appelbe said: “The news about the Nottinghamshire site is very exciting and there is a lot of development happening but we are still at the scientific stage of developing fusion.

“There is a real momentum building and I am optimistic about overcoming the scientific hurdles to building a functioning fusion power plant but I’m not an engineer or economist.

“But I wouldn’t want to put a timescale on it.”

Public opposition has been one of the most powerful obstacles to nuclear power

One of the practical problems which has dogged traditional nuclear power is public opposition, often based around fear of leaks and accidents.

Dr Appelbe said: “I’d certainly live next to a fusion station.

“It uses small amounts of fuel very quickly, so there are not the large amounts of fuel which are around for much longer with fission, which have been the source of some accidents such as Chernobyl.

“This, combined with the challenge of keeping a fusion reaction going, means there is no way you can have catastrophic runaway issues.”

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus storiy available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Sunday, (07/28/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Putin threatens to restart production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons if US

Times of India

… All about viral hepatitis and preventive measures to stop its transmissionBTS Jimin’s ‘Who’ dominates Spotify’s daily top songs – global chart for …

When temptation to spend an inheritance strikes, what’s the right move? – San Diego Union-Tribune

San Diego Union-Tribune

Should California’s Legislature jump into the debate about nuclear waste at San Onofre? Will India surpass California on a theoretical GDP scorecard …

Putin Threatens To Restart Production of Mid-Range Nuclear Weapons – The Moscow Times

The Moscow Times

All the attributes of the Cold War with the direct confrontation … Read more about: Putin , Nuclear , Arms. A Message from The Moscow Ti..

Nuclear Power

NEWS

The huge challenges in creating nuclear fusion power plant – BBC News

BBC

The project to build a nuclear fusion reactor in Nottinghamshire has been described as the “UK’s Nasa moment”. But beyond the optimism of an event …

Construction starts on several projects at nuclear power plants, accelerating China’s clean …

Global Times

Construction or upgrading began recently on several projects at nuclear plants in China, a significant development in the country’s nuclear power …

Taiwan decommissions Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant reactor | Taiwan News | Jul. 28, 2024 12:24

Taiwan News

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan decommissioned Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s Unit 1 reactor on Saturday (July 27) at 10 p.m..

Nuclear War

NEWS

Putin warns US of Cold War-style crisis if missiles deployed to Germany – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

Russian leader threatens to relaunch production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons if US deploys missiles to Germany.

Putin warns the US of Cold War-style missile crisis | Reuters

Reuters

MOSCOW, July 28 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday warned the United States that if Washington deployed long-range missiles in …

Putin warns the United States of Cold War-style missile crisis – VOA News

VOA News

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday warned the United States that if Washington deployed long-range missiles in Germany, then Russia would …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Putin warns US of Cold War-style crisis if missiles deployed to Germany – Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

But following the end of the Cold War, the US significantly reduced the number of missiles stationed in Europe as the threat from Moscow receded. The …

U.S. upgrades military command in Japan, warns of China threats | Reuters

Reuters

“Amidst increasingly severe nuclear threats in the vicinity of Japan, it is important to further strengthen extended deterrence. I welcome the …

Chilling US map shows areas most likely to be targeted in a nuclear war – is your state on it?

Irish Star

The threat of nuclear war looms over parts of America as Russia’s … Late in 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stoked further fears when he issued .

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

If Yellowstone’s volcanic system erupted, how could it impact the US? – WNCT

WNCT

… Yellowstone were to erupt. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory said a large eruption at Yellowstone “will not lead to the end of the human race …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jul 28, 2024

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A French CAESAR howitzer at work in Ukraine. Photo: Territorial Defense Media

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Saturday, (07/27/2024)

The U.S. Senate and Congress should make this article a required reading for all Republican senators and congressmen so they will get the idea that freedom is not free, and in this case and many others, defending Ukraine is not charity. ~llaw

• Opinion

Western aid to Ukraine is not charity, it’s self-preservation

Aid to Ukraine is paramount in all “manageable balance” scenarios of the Russian invasion, whether exhaustion of Russian troops or talks

by Silvester Nosenko

27/07/2024

Western aid to Ukraine is not charity, it’s self-preservation

Will the West continue to support Ukraine?

The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war has shifted from consolidating Western unity to posing a potential threat of direct conflict with Moscow.

This evolution raises complex questions about Western involvement. Rather than asking, “How can we help Ukraine defeat a nuclear power without triggering a world war?” — a query that seems increasingly difficult to answer — we should reframe our approach. The more pertinent question is: “How can the West avoid losing to a nuclear power, and is Ukraine essential in this effort?”

To address this, we must consider various scenarios that fall short of global war. These can be broadly categorized into two approaches:

1. Passive strategies, while less costly in terms of resources, may lead to strategic defeat even if direct confrontation is avoided.
2. Active approaches, on the other hand, offer more preferable and sustainable long-term outcomes.

The critical factor distinguishing these strategies is the level of Western assistance to Ukraine.

Facts and context

The disparity in military spending between Ukraine and Russia has widened significantly in 2024. Ukraine’s budget stands at $40.7 billion, while Russia’s has surged to $115 billion. This gap has grown since 2022, when the figures were $44 billion and $86.3 billion, respectively.

Russia’s commitment to defense is even more striking in the long term. Reuters reports that Moscow plans to allocate $600 billion to defense and security from 2022 to 2025, suggesting further increases in military expenditure that will far outpace Ukraine’s capabilities.

Despite Kyiv’s apparent success in halting a new Russian offensive in the Kharkiv area, this situation poses significant challenges for Ukraine’s strained armed forces and struggling economy. The pledged minimum of $40 billion per annum in assistance from NATO countries is likely insufficient to tilt the balance in Ukraine’s favor or achieve clear political goals in the near future.

Potential outcomes: passive stance and strategic defeat

A scarcity of aid could significantly impact Russia’s perception of Western resolve. This might encourage the Kremlin to adopt more aggressive tactics, including attempts to seize additional territory and coercing Ukraine into concessions through persistent missile strikes

Such actions could lead to internal destabilization in Ukraine, undermining its role as an effective deterrent against Russian aggression. Consequently, closing the capability gap between Kyiv and Moscow would require a substantial increase in Western spending.

In that case, escalation management will be totally out of reach for the West — which is no less dangerous than escalation on the part of Ukraine (for instance, strikes on Russian oil refineries) as it will necessitate hastily organized talks on heavily unfavorable starting terms.

The West faces a dilemma in these potential negotiations:

1. Non-participation would force acquiescence to outcomes determined by others.
2. Direct participation would legitimize Russian gains, potentially eroding trust in Western-led security partnerships and the rules-based international order.

Attempts to later promote these principles by supporting what remains of Ukraine would likely prove ineffective. Even initiatives like Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula may be inadequate to address such a complex situation.

The consequences of Ukraine’s defeat could extend beyond the immediate conflict. China, with its significant influence over Russia and importance to the EU, could gain diplomatic leverage. This might pave the way for China’s increased security role in Eastern Europe, contrary to US interests.

Furthermore, if the Western stance lacks cohesion and the US shifts its focus elsewhere, the EU’s security and stability could be compromised. The EU is not equipped to be the primary security provider in such a scenario. History has shown that leaving Ukraine to be handled solely by Europeans, as attempted with the Minsk agreements in 2014, is not an effective strategy.

Active stance: an imperfect but manageable balance

The current scenario of gradual and prolonged exhaustion of Russian troops without settlement, while less sustainable than in previous years, remains viable with consistent Western support. This approach could lead to negotiations based on either Russia’s relative advantage or mutual exhaustion – both preferable to Ukraine’s outright defeat.

To secure favorable preconditions for potential talks, Ukraine requires constant and predictable aid. This support serves two crucial purposes:

1. It reduces Russia’s perceived benefits of continuing the conflict.
2. It prevents Moscow from imposing maximalist terms when Kyiv has no alternatives to negotiation.

Consequently, the transition to “peace” becomes more manageable.

If a settlement is reached through mutual exhaustion and relatively equal negotiations, its sustainability will hinge on an appropriate balance of forces. Achieving this balance requires Western assistance and should begin immediately.

Thus, military aid to Ukraine is not as an endless expense, but as both a precondition and foundation for an imperfect yet manageable future.

Beyond the Ukrainian context, broader considerations are crucial. Russian nuclear brinkmanship and threats to Central European states are likely to persist, regardless of Ukraine’s fate. This was evident in Moscow’s pre-invasion ultimatums to NATO. Therefore, sacrificing Ukraine would not necessarily prevent nuclear war threats.

The more significant concern, as Randall Schweller suggests, is the risk of underbalancing against Russia’s further belligerence in Europe. 

While some may argue that the West has previously demonstrated its ability to curb Moscow’s ambitions, citing Cold War experiences, the current situation differs significantly. During the Cold War, American-Soviet relations in Europe resembled a balance between two status quo powers. In contrast, today’s Russia is clearly revisionist, willing to take greater risks and mount offensive actions.

The West, meanwhile, has not fully embraced a deterrence-by denial strategy despite advocating for it more strongly since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO allies still require time and resources to build a force of 300,000 troops at high readiness for the eastern flank.

In the interim, Ukraine’s 1,000,000-strong army serves as a de facto response force, providing a buffer that spares the West from having to significantly increase its own deterrent capabilities, which might lack both capacity and credibility.

Aid to Ukraine necessary to avoid West’s strategic defeat

Aid to Ukraine is a crucial factor in all “manageable balance” scenarios of the Russian invasion, including:

1. Gradual and prolonged exhaustion of Russian troops without settlement
2. Negotiations based on relative Russian advantage
3. Talks resulting from mutual exhaustion
4. Maintenance of any post-war settlement that may be reached.

Continued assistance to Ukraine not only makes these scenarios viable but also helps the West avoid a strategic defeat and its consequent repercussions.

While the likelihood of a decisive victory in this war remains low, maintaining or enhancing Ukraine’s current position appears more favorable when considering the logic of transitivity of preferences. This approach provides the West with more significant influence over the conflict’s outcome without exposing it to additional risks.

Sacrificing Ukraine to avoid a nuclear war offers questionable benefits: Russian nuclear threats will likely persist even if the “Ukraine question” is resolved in Moscow’s favor.

Regarding conventional capabilities, Russia may require substantial time to recover from its losses. While this prospect may seem reassuring for the West, recent events suggest caution. Russia’s retreat from several Ukrainian regions in 2022 and the subsequent course of the war indicate that Russia’s recovery period might be shorter than anticipated, potentially posing additional threats to European security.

Ukraine has become an integral part of the Western-led security architecture in Europe. This framework has the potential to return to a manageable state of normalcy or even improve compared to the pre-2022 situation. Alternative scenarios risk dangerous global shifts that could jeopardize our collective security and are, therefore, best avoided.

This text is part of the project “Pragmatic Dialogue with the West: Why It Is Worth Supporting Ukraine,” undertaken with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It presents the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the position of the International Renaissance Foundation.

Silvester Nosenko

Silvester Nosenko, Senior Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Translator to the President of Ukraine (2020-2022)

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday, (07/27/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Biden to nominate nuclear engineer, Senate staffer, to fill last NRC vacancy

ExchangeMonitor

… things to prepare the NRC for a surge in new nuclear reactor models. … All rights reserved. | Privacy Policy | Cookie Settings | Diversity …

Is there a sunken nuclear bomb near Florida? Here’s what to know – ClickOrlando.com

ClickOrlando.com

… nuclear bomb in tow, heading out to meet … Copyright 2024 by WKMG ClickOrlando – All rights reserved. About the Author. Anthony Talcott headshot …

Rare astronomical event expected to occur soon – WUNC

WUNC

So a nova is when you have a pair of stars orbiting each other, and about half of all stars, unlike our Sun, are found to be orbiting a companion star …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

IEA Scenarios and the Outlook for Nuclear Power

World Nuclear Association

The energy projections produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) are frequently consulted by policymakers, the media, and analysts.

Growing US nuclear power resurgence reaches the nation’s heartland – Straight Arrow News

Straight Arrow News

A nuclear power comeback is starting to take shape in the U.S. as officials consider reopening the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa.

Second-to-last nuclear reactor shut down – Taipei Times

Taipei Times

Second-to-last nuclear reactor shut down. GAS BOOST: An LNG unit would buttress the shortfall from the closure, and could generate more power than Ma- …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Officials investigate blaze at nuclear power plant | News | baycitytribune.com

The Bay City Tribune

Officials investigate blaze at nuclear power plant. By … “An Unusual Event is the lowest of four nuclear emergency classifications,” she said.

25 states file emergency appeal to pause new EPA regulations – NewsNation

NewsNation

… plant for a next-generation nuclear power plant he believes will “revolutionize” how power is generated. (AP Photo/Natalie Behring, File). Get fact …

Nuclear War

NEWS

The unacceptable, growing risk of nuclear war – The Boston Globe

The Boston Globe

The unacceptable, growing risk of nuclear war. Leaders of nuclear-armed nations seem unaware of the dangers of their combative talk. But the heads of …

Russian Nuclear-Capable Missile Destroys Zelensky’s ‘Secret’ Depot | Putin | Ukraine War

YouTube

On Camera: Russian Nuclear-Capable Missile Destroys Zelensky’s ‘Secret’ Depot | Putin | Ukraine War. 22K views · 3 hours ago #ukrainesecretweapon …

Russia’s Lavrov says US-South Korea nuclear guideline adds concern, media reports | Reuters

Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday a recently announced guideline on the operation of U.S. nuclear assets on the Korean …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Chilling US map shows areas most likely to be targeted in a nuclear war – is your state on it?

MSN

The threat of nuclear war looms over parts of America as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other global conflicts persist.

Western aid to Ukraine is not charity, it’s self-preservation – Euromaidan Press

Euromaidan Press

… risks. Sacrificing Ukraine to avoid a nuclear war offers questionable benefits: Russian nuclear threats will likely persist even if the “Ukraine …

Inside the secret Cold War bunker left abandoned in major UK city with miles of concrete …

The US Sun

BENNY & THE THREATS. Donald Trump warns Netanyahu of ‘World War 3 if he … Completed in 1966, the bunker would have provided refuge for local officials ..

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone closes Biscuit Basin for the season following hydrothermal blast | Local News

Wyoming Tribune Eagle

Geology · Earth Sciences · Volcanology · Geological Processes · Water · Volcanism · Diamond · Yellowstone Caldera · Volcano · Volcanic Hazards …

If Yellowstone’s volcanic system erupted, how could it impact the US? – Fox 59

Fox 59

The past 60-80 eruptions would have had little regional (or continental) impact,” they explained. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory said Yellowstone …

Here’s how a ‘volcanic supereruption’ at Yellowstone might impact life in Colorado

Denver Gazette

… Yellowstone Supereruption,’ published by Yellowstone Volcano Observatory – one showing distribution of ash in each major eruption and another …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Jul 26, 2024

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Image is of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant under siege in the Russia/ Ukraine war.

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Friday, (07/26/2024)

This is just the 2nd week that the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) newsletter is available to the public on this blog. It is available as Category 7 each Friday below at the end of TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Friday, (07/26/2024). You are invited to peruse the timely (often critical) articles that are provided for your continuing nuclear news, including a weekly update of the Russia/Ukraine war and the dangerous ongoing situation there concerning the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. I have provided a duplicate link to this report, which is the IAEA’s 193rd Update

(Just the cumulation of updates provides the instant realization of how serious this wartime situation involving a nuclear power plant is and how nuclear power plants are also potential weapons of mass destruction.)

~llaw

The link:

Update 239-IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Friday, (07/26/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Should California’s Legislature jump into the debate about nuclear waste at San Onofre?

The Daily Item

Once the dismantlement is complete, all that is expected to remain at SONGS will be two dry storage facilities; a security building with personnel to …

Israel and Hezbollah have escalated attacks on each other. How likely is war? – WVTF

WVTF

All Things Considered · BBC World Service · Fresh Air · Full Disclosure · Here … nuclear reactors, ports, hospitals, schools, everything. And so …

NextEra eyes restart opportunity for shuttered Iowa plant : Corporate – World Nuclear News

World Nuclear News

There are a few things that we would have to work through, but yes, we are. We are looking at it.” The reactor has been defuelled – all of its …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

China Demonstrates the First Entirely Meltdown-Proof Nuclear Reactor – Singularity Hub

Singularity Hub

In a paper, researchers describe a test in which they cut power to a live nuclear plant—and the plant was able to passively cool itself.

Nuclear not a dirty word, but coal is (to some) – Mining.com.au

Mining.com.au

The national conversation about energy has gone nuclear as debate rages about how Australia can transition away from coal-fired power stations and …

China sets launch date for world’s first thorium molten salt nuclear power station

South China Morning Post

A molten salt nuclear power plant that uses thorium as fuel instead of uranium is set to be built in the Gobi Desert.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

False alarm at Ohio nuclear plant raises local preparedness questions at Piketon

Scioto Valley Guardian

… Nuclear Power Plant. According to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 14 emergency sirens were inadvertently triggered during routine system …

Ukraine probing emergency exports of thermal coal to Poland – Kyiv – Yahoo News Canada

Yahoo News Canada

… power transmission line from Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant to Poland. Ukraine and Poland are increasing this year’s production of thermal …

CenterPoint’s new outage tracker, emergency plans unveiled by CEO

AOL.com

… emergencies. The failures we witnessed during Hurricane … Energy Northwest campus, home to the northwest’s only commercial nuclear power plant.

Nuclear War

NEWS

The unacceptable, growing risk of nuclear war – The Boston Globe

The Boston Globe

The last time the world faced the prospect of imminent nuclear war was during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. It was averted because leaders on both …

Nuclear Risks on the Rise – CounterPunch.org

Counterpunch

There’s a precedent: the outlawing of chemical warfare after World War I when its terrible impacts were horrifically demonstrated, killing 90,000. The …

Will the New Triumvirate, Russia, China & North Korea, Force the South To Go Nuclear?

Global Issues

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 26 (IPS) – When Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a pact last month to revive a Cold War …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Nuclear Risks on the Rise – CounterPunch.org

Counterpunch

… Nuclear Threat to Our Planet, and the Beyond Nuclear handbook, The U.S. Space Force and the dangers of nuclear power and nuclear war in space.

Stabilizing the NATO-Russia Deterrence Relationship

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs

Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Threats. The war in Ukraine has highlighted … attack would be crucial if Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons.

Will the New Triumvirate, Russia, China & North Korea, Force the South To Go Nuclear?

Global Issues

… nuclear threats.” Meeting on the sidelines of a NATO summit in … risks of armed conflict and nuclear war in the region, says Abolition 2000.

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone shuts down Biscuit Basin for summer after hydrothermal explosion damaged boardwalk

USA Today

… Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles, a Yellowstone Volcano Observatory publication. While unexpected geological activity at the park can seem like a …

Explosion at Yellowstone National Park forces tourists to run for safety – Yahoo News UK

Yahoo News UK

Yellowstone sits on a dormant volcano, but the explosion – which sent debris an estimated 100 feet into the sky – is not believed to be related to a …

Biscuit Basin Explosion – YouTube

YouTube

… volcano, it’s no surprise that hydrothermal explosions are Yellowstone’s most common geologic hazard. Mike Poland, scientist-in-charge of the …

IAEA Weekly News – 26 July 2024

IAEA Weekly News

26 July 2024

Read the top news and updates published on IAEA.org this week.

26 July 2024

Update 239-IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

The nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains highly challenging during the military conflict, including efforts to ensure adequate maintenance of key safety systems and other vital equipment, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today. Over the past week, the IAEA experts stationed at the ZNPP have conducted several walkdowns focused on monitoring maintenance activities across the site, as well as the availability of necessary spare parts for the plant. Read more →

24 July 2024

Progress as Countries Seek to Join the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage

Progress is being made towards a global nuclear liability regime for nuclear damage, participants heard at the Fourth Meeting of the Contracting Parties and Signatories to the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage (CSC), held at the IAEA’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria last month. Read more →

23 July 2024

IAEA Deepens Ties with the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation

The IAEA and the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation will launch a new series of joint activities to enhance collaboration, following an agreement signed during the recent UN High Level Political Forum in New York. Read more →

22 July 2024

First Ministerial Meeting of the IAEA World Fusion Energy Group to be held in Italy in November

The IAEA and Italy – the current Group of Seven presidency – will co-host the inaugural ministerial meeting of the World Fusion Energy Group later this year to inject further momentum into intensifying global efforts to develop a potentially clean, safe and limitless source of energy. Read more →

22 July 2024

Recycling Radioactive Sources to Support Cancer Treatments

Canada will recycle disused radioactive sources from Thailand in order to support innovative cancer treatments, as part of an international IAEA initiative. Read more →

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

JUL 25, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Thursday, (07/25/2024)

Twenty five years ago, the idea of nuclear disarmament was a possibility. Today it is not. Going from five to nine nuclear armed countries, and Iran perhaps close to making it ten, just using simple arithmetic tells us such a cooperative agreement among nations is at least twice as difficult as it was then, so what makes anyone believe it might be a possibility now? Nevertheless, this short and well-written article is very much worth reading, as parallels many of my own issues and comments over the those years when I quietly stepped out the nuclear industry over the 3-Mile Island partial meltdown, which, by the way is still undergoing a ‘clean-up’ operation that won’t be finished until 2037 (if then), and yet the ownership is considering an attempt to re-start the plant. Insanity continues to prevail, as always, in ‘all things nuclear” . . .

As I said yesterday, following a similar negative comment about China’s valiant proposal to rid Earth’s World(s) of nuclear weapons, as well as nuclear power, “Wouldn’t it be wonderful if I was wrong?” ~llaw

Why getting rid of nuclear weapons must be a priority

A little over a quarter century ago when the book Third Millennium Equipoise came out with its final blueprint for ridding the world of nuclear weapons linked to UN Security Council reforms, there were only five countries that possessed nuclear weapons.

VINOD SAIGHAL | New Delhi | July 25, 2024 8:00 am

A little over a quarter century ago when the book Third Millennium Equipoise came out with its final blueprint for ridding the world of nuclear weapons linked to UN Security Council reforms, there were only five countries that possessed nuclear weapons. They were also the five permanent members of the Security Council. Today there are nine countries possessing nuclear weapons. In the 78 years since the nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki no leader of consequence had threatened use of nuclear strikes in the manner of the threat given by the Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war.

He has threatened to use these in the event of serious Russian losses due to the supply of advanced weapons to Ukraine. It has to be noted that he appears to be deliberately over reacting since there is no threat in the war to loss of territory in Russia. He will use nuclear weapons if he loses Crimea and his enclaves in Donbas. Putin may not actually be intending to carry out the nuclear threat but his adversaries in the West cannot take these threats casually. Automatically certain states of readiness to meet the threats take place. What is more, based on the Russian threat, nuclear powers have started refining and in some cases augmenting their nuclear arsenals making the world a more dangerous place to live in. While Russia may have the capability to invade parts of Europe, the West has neither the capacity nor the desire to invade Russia.

Therefore the nuclear sabre rattling by Putin makes no sense. Carrying the argument further in case of Russian setbacks, where exactly would he carry out a nuclear strike? Certainly not in Europe which would invite retaliatory nuclear strikes on Russia with consequences too horrible to contemplate. That limits the choice to strikes in Ukraine. But where? Wherever he strikes there is a strong possibility that the largest nuclear reactor in Europe at Zaporizzhia will also go up in flames, again with far reaching consequences in the whole of Ukraine and large parts of Europe and Russia. The discussion above brings home to every human being with terrifying clarity that among eight billion or so people who share the planet, the potential inheres in just one person or leader to endanger the fragility of the beautiful Pale Blue Dot that we inhabit.

That being the case and having lived through the nuclear menace for over seven decades through Cold War doctrines like MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) and the like, the world cannot continue to skate on thin ice for its future and safety both of which are amenable to annihilation on the calculations, whims or fancy of a single human being. Today the capacity for largescale country or global destruction inheres in two nations, the United States and the Russian Federation with nuclear arsenals comprising 5044 and 5580 weapons respectively sufficient for second, third and fourth strike capability. No other nuclear state has the weapons numbers to cause damage nearing that of the two world powers. Having said that, all of them continue to increase their nuclear weapon holdings. Taking the case of the two superpowers, should they decide to wage war on each other they can devastate each other’s countries to the extent of reducing them to gigantic Chernobyls.

That is to say they will cease to exist as viable states for up to fifty or even hundred years. To do so they would hardly have used more than twenty per cent of their megaton range weapons stockpile. To what effect would this near total mutual assured destruction take place? There would be no victory, only mutual annihilation. Therefore where is the rationale in the first instance of holding such large stockpiles and refining them? Surely they have no plans, or possibly have no plans to use them on other nations in similar numbers. Most importantly why would Russia want to destroy America or the US Russia? Russian people admire America and given a chance half of them would like to migrate there. Likewise Americans do not dislike Russian people.

They admire them. Therefore the question arises in a MAD type of scenario – who is destroying whom and on whose behalf? The same applies to a possible exchange between China and the US. Would their nationals want the destruction of their opposite numbers? Once these aspects are discussed in open forums and universities around the world, the absurdity of holding nuclear weapons globally would automatically lead to their abandonment. The fifty year blueprint once outlined for ridding the world of nuclear weapons keeping in mind mutual and equal security for lead nuclear states during phased reduction will have to be scaled down to a quarter century or so.

Prior to that aspects of monitoring under UN auspices will need to be streamlined. The elimination of nuclear weapons has to be the foremost global priority with immediate effect. The first step would have to be the passage of this resolution in the UN General Assembly followed by a similar resolution in the UN Security Council.

(The writer, a retired Major General of the Indian Army, is the author of Third Millenium Equipoise.)

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Thursday, (07/25/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Wayne Brady’s nontraditional home life redefines today’s modern family in new reality series – ABC7

ABC7

Because people think it’s all smiles and shiny. … And that’s what we want you to take away from it, because that that is the remix of a nuclear family …

The US nuclear industry is stuck. Can this startup get it rolling again? – Canary Media

Canary Media

You have to do things at fleet scale.” Jonathan Webb, founder of … nuclear projects have almost all been over budget and behind schedule.

NextEra considers restarting Iowa nuclear plant amid rising demand for carbon-free energy

CNBC

“The existing nuclear plants are the hottest thing in power right now … All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversal. Data is a real-time …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

The US nuclear industry is stuck. Can this startup get it rolling again? – Canary Media

Canary Media

Can America regain its nuclear energy dominance? The U.S. has the world’s largest nuclear power fleet and generates more electricity from fission …

World’s first ‘meltdown-proof’ nuclear reactor aces safety test – New Atlas

New Atlas

Generation IV reactors like the Shidao Bay Nuclear Power Plant high-temperature gas-cooled (HTGR) pebble-bed reactor in Shidao Bay, Shandong Province, …

Australia should wait for SMR market to mature, report says – World Nuclear News

World Nuclear News

As current coal-fired power stations begin to retire there is an urgent need for mature, low carbon technologies to fill the energy supply gap, the …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Emergency alarms go off around Ohio nuclear plant; here’s what happened – WHIO TV

WHIO TV

The emergency alarms started blaring around the Perry Nuclear Power Plant.

‘Unusual event’ declared at nuclear power plant in Matagorda County – FOX 26 Houston

FOX 26 Houston

The incident was followed by a fire in the switchyard, which prompted immediate action from on-site crews. Local county emergency response teams and …

Ashtabula County residents get scare after nuclear plant’s emergency notification system …

Cleveland 19 News

The emergency …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Russia and Chinese nuclear-capable bombers patrol near United States | Reuters

Reuters

Russian and Chinese nuclear-capable strategic bombers patrolled near the U.S. state of Alaska in the North Pacific and Arctic on Thursday, …

Mike Bond’s Latest Thriller, CRUDE: Nuclear War is Coming — Can We Stop It? |

Baxley News Banner

(NewsUSA) – “After many years working on intelligence and war issues, I now believe we’re about to have a worldwide nuclear war.

Ukraine-Russia war: US intercepts Russian and Chinese bombers – Sky News

Sky News

Russia and China have held joint air patrols near Alaska, prompting US and Canadian defence command to intercept four bombers.

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Why getting rid of nuclear weapons must be a priority – The Statesman

The Statesman

… threatened use of nuclear strikes in the manner of the threat given by the Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war. He has threatened to …

Risk of atomic Armageddon: US must restore military deterrence against Iran – opinion

The Jerusalem Post

… Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran. Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously. To revive the nuclear deal, the threat of …

Ukraine-Russia war: US intercepts Russian and Chinese bombers – Sky News

Sky News

… threats of invading Taiwan … There have also been warnings more than one of them risks triggering a third world war within the next five years.

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Yellowstone National Park explosion: What is a hydrothermal explosion? – USA Today

USA Today

Hydrothermal explosions are not an indicator a volcanic eruption is brewing, according to USGS. There is a supervolcano roughly the size of Rhode …

Don’t Panic: The Yellowstone Explosion Isn’t Tied To Its Supervolcano – Forbes

Forbes

A hydrothermal explosion at Yellowstone National Park Tuesday sent steam and debris into the air, freaked out a number of tourists and damaged a …

Is Yellowstone National Park closed? What to know after hydrothermal explosion

Cincinnati Enquirer

Is Yellowstone a volcano? Will it erupt soon? … Yellowstone is home to some of the planet’s most active volcanic, hydrothermal and earthquake systems, …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

JUL 24, 2024

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Proposing to prevent a nuclear war, promote non-proliferation, and pursue complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Wednesday, (07/24/2024)

Is China the only remaining country with nuclear war capability that is in favor of this? This article from the China Military, “proposes to prevent a nuclear war by promoting non-proliferation, and pursuing complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, … (Read this article; it makes a lot of sense, the common kind, which is something all nations, including the USA, need to regenerate from the cobwebs of their collective minds. It should also apply ,without a second thought, to globally ridding ourselves of nuclear power plants.)

This would be a giant step in the right direction, and at least the suggestion bears international consideration. But will that ever happen? Of course not!

(But wouldn’t it be wonderful if I was wrong?) ~llaw

OPINIONS / Opinions

China proposes a way to prevent nuclear war

Source

China Military Online

Editor

Lin Congyi

Time

2024-07-24 22:53:34

A+-

By Guo Xiaobing

The second meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) recently kicked off in Geneva, Switzerland. At the meeting, China submitted a series of working papers on nuclear arms control, no-first-use of nuclear weapons, non-nuclear security, the nuclear submarine cooperation among the US, the UK and Australia, and other issues. China also held a side event to release a report on NATO’ nuclear sharing. By offering a comprehensive solution, China was making itself heard in defending the international arms control mechanism as nuclear arms control is facing mounting challenges.

Two points in China’s proposal are worth special attention.

First, China adheres to and has elaborated on its position of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, calling on the nuclear states to conclude a treaty or release a political statement on abiding by this principle. Since China’s successful test-fire of its first atomic bomb on October 16, 1964, the country has always observed the “no-first-use” policy. In 1994, China proposed the Draft Treaty on No-First Use of Nuclear Weapons to the other four nuclear-weapon States.  The latest working paper submitted by China on the no-first-use of nuclear weapons contained the following key messages: “Each State Party undertakes not to be the first to use nuclear weapons against another State Party at any time and under any circumstances. Each State Party undertakes to support the early conclusion of a treaty on not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States or nuclear-weapon-free zones”. Meanwhile, to protect the core interests of the contracting parties, the working paper also states that “Each State Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country.”

Second, China advocates strengthening the security assurances for non-nuclear-weapon states and calls for concluding relevant legal papers for that purpose. The five nuclear-weapon states once issued a joint statement committing themselves to not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States, but China is the only one of them to make that commitment unconditionally, whereas the other four have their reservations. China has been urging for turning the political statement on security assurance for non-nuclear-weapon states into an international legal instrument with binding force. In the recent meeting, China pointed out the negative impacts of nuclear sharing and extended deterrence on non-nuclear-weapon States, saying that relevant nuclear-weapon State should abandon the arrangement of nuclear sharing and extended deterrence, and withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad back to its own territories.

Why is China stressing international nuclear arms control now? Because this matter has come to a crucial crossroads, which has never been seen in the 30-plus years after the end of the Cold War.

For one thing, the world is sliding from order to chaos with rising risks of nuclear warfare, nuclear arms race, and nuclear proliferation. Regarding the risk of nuclear war, the ghost of using or threatening to use nuclear weapons has been hovering over the world ever since the Ukraine crisis broke out; Israel threatened to use nuclear weapons too during its conflict with Palestine – something that hasn’t happened after the Cuba missile crisis in 1962.

There is a greater risk of a nuclear arms race with the mounting scale of nuclear weapons. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said the global nuclear arsenal may rebound in the next decade, which will mark a vital turning point in the global nuclear disarmament process by putting an end to the consistent decrease in the number of nuclear warheads since the 1980s.

Meanwhile, nuclear proliferation among Western countries has become more conspicuous. The US and the UK, in the name of helping Australia develop nuclear submarines, are transferring a staggering amount of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium to Canberra; the US and its allies are spreading the geographical coverage of nuclear weapons through the so-called “nuclear sharing”; and Japanese politicians are clamoring for their own “nuclear sharing” in imitation of NATO.

For another, the institutions for nuclear arms control are partly collapsing with the bilateral nuclear disarmament mechanism between Washington and Moscow barely holding on and the multilateral nuclear arms control and international non-proliferation mechanisms severely challenged. American magazine Foreign Policy said international arms control may be walking into a “dark age”, as the pillars of the existing arms control framework – the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), the Treaty on Open Skies, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)– are either abolished or on the way to abolition. New START is the last remaining treaty in the US-Russia bilateral nuclear disarmament framework, but Moscow decided to suspend its performance of the treaty early last year and Washington stopped data exchange immediately afterward. The nuclear disarmament between the two countries has very dim prospects and may very well become non-existent by 2026.

At the same time, the international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism is being eroded constantly. Not only did the US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine deal bring tangible risks of proliferation, this double-standard practice also sabotaged the authority, integrity, and effectiveness of the international non-proliferation mechanism.

Nuclear warfare and nuclear proliferation are abhorred by the whole of humanity. Proposing to prevent a nuclear war, promote non-proliferation, and pursue complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, the nuclear arms control proposal offered by China is a silver lining that the international community should carefully listen to and deeply reflect on as the fundamental way to take the world out of its current dilemma.

(The author is director of the Arms Control Center, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

Editor’s note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Wednesday, (07/24/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

A new law aims to advance US nuclear power, but some fear it shortchanges safety

WDET 101.9 FM

On July 9, President Joe Biden signed a bill that among other things will change the mission statement of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Radio Interview, 6PR Perth | Defence Ministers

Defence Ministers

SUBJECTS: Indian Ocean Defence and Security Conference; Defence budget; HMAS Stirling; Australia’s contribution to the Combined Maritime Force; …

Australia news live: scientists say small nuclear reactors a ‘chimera’ – The Guardian

The Guardian

Small modular reactors won’t be fully commercially available until the late 2040s at least, a group of Australia’s top technologists says.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

First meltdown-proof nuclear reactor passes loss of cooling test in China – Tech Xplore

Tech Xplore

The new nuclear plant in China has been under construction and testing since 2016—it has two reactors, each capable of generating 105 MW of power. It …

Top 10: Nuclear Power Companies – Energy Digital Magazine

Energy Digital Magazine

Nuclear is a zero-emission clean energy source as it generates power through fission, the process of splitting uranium atoms to produce energy.

Budget 2024: Did you miss the ‘nuclear option’ in the budget? – The Economic Times

The Economic Times

How SMRs can revolutionise India’s energy sector. In certain parts of India, the construction of large nuclear power plants (NPPs) is not …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Emergency plans updated after nuclear risk review – Jersey Evening Post

Jersey Evening Post

Flamanville nuclear power station was among the sites looked at by the UK Health Security Agency during a review of possible “worst-case scenario …

FANR launches National Programme for Qualifying Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Workers

ZAWYA

The UAE has a robust emergency preparedness and response system that was lauded by international missions such as the International Atomic Energy …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Madness and World Politics: Risks of a Nuclear War – Modern Diplomacy

Modern Diplomacy

Madness and World Politics: Risks of a Nuclear War. Whether by design or inadvertence – by “bolt-from-the-blue” attacks or incremental aggressions …

How close is the world to nuclear war? | Battle Lines Podcast – YouTube

YouTube

On today’s special episode of Battle Lines we speak to International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi. As China rapidly expands …

China proposes a way to prevent nuclear war

China Military

Proposing to prevent a nuclear war, promote non-proliferation, and pursue complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

UK should prepare for threat from Iran, Russia, China, and N. Korea

iranintl.com

Iran’s possible pursuit of nuclear weapons and Russia’s ongoing militarization exemplified by its actions in Ukraine are additional threats. He …

‘We also have weapons that can hit your territory’: Putin warns West of risk of nuclear war

MSN

Everything that the West comes up with creates the real threat of a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and thus the destruction of civilisation …

The US Election & the Dangers of Nuclear Weapons – Global Issues

Global Issues

The US Election & the Dangers of Nuclear Weapons · Yemen: UN envoy warns of threat of return to ‘full-fledged war‘ as regional tensions escalate …

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

Large Steam Explosion Rocks Biscuit Basin at Yellowstone (but Don’t Panic!)

Discover Magazine

Steam explosions are likely the biggest volcanic hazard at Yellowstone Caldera today. That comes as a surprise to most people who think Yellowstone is …

‘Hydrothermal’ explosion sends visitors fleeing at Yellowstone National Park

Los Angeles Times

Lava flows last erupted from the Yellowstone Caldera, or Yellowstone Supervolcano, approximately 70,000 years ago, according to the USGS. “If it were …

Hydrothermal explosion at Biscuit Basin in Yellowstone National Park damages boardwalk

USA Today

… Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles, a Yellowstone Volcano Observatory publication. The explosions are “one of the most important and least understood …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

JUL 23, 2024

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Kim’s North Korea Warns of ‘Nuclear World War’

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Tuesday, (07/23/2024)

The tensions between the two countries, South & North Korea, have always been tense and dangerous. I was there for a year (1962, the year of the October Cuban Missile Crisis) and the intensity, even after a signed Armistice to end the long wars between the countries and resolving the last Korean War (from the summer of 1950 to the summer of 1953, but a following ‘Peace Treaty’ was never signed by either country.

The United States has been the staunch ally of South Korea during all of those years and fought the ‘50s war with American troops, and still protects the South from the North. And now the threat of nuclear weapons has arisen, and the USA has no choice but to defend South Korea should another war be declared, nuclear or not.

My job in Korea back then was to rotate American soldiers from South Korea back to duty at various military bases in the United States or its territories, although the tension was still thick between the two countries despite the Armistice a decade later, and the Cuban Missile crisis increased the tension considerably for a short time, at least for the Generals and other ranking officers, raising the alert status of the South Korean defense by the Eighth U.S. Army and its cavalry divisions occupying Korea. So it was that I was apprised during my interviews with the rotating infantry soldiers, listening to the stories by the hundreds of a never-ending ‘war’ armed only with M1 rifles while facing dangerous skirmishes during the day and a ‘hidden’ or ‘sniper’ style of conflict that was perpetually ongoing in order to defensively protect our fellow comrades. We all individually had scheduled times from sundown to sunup, assigned to guard duty, on foot, around the perimeters of several cavalry divisions of the Army. I, of course don’t know for sure, but I suspect that such guard duty has never changed 60+ years later, nor has the tension lessened, but has, most likely, increased.

And yet, after all of that elapsed time, humanity has learned nothing, and has actually regressed in our semi-humanitarian way (if such a term applies in any kind of war) that wars have been and will be fought in the future, leading to, perhaps soon, a nuclear war that, should it happen, will be the end of the global human culture, including most all of our lives as well as our totally innocent animal kingdoms. ~llaw

Kim’s North Korea Warns of ‘Nuclear World War’

Published Jul 23, 2024 at 5:56 AM EDTUpdated Jul 23, 2024 at 11:18 AM EDT

By Micah McCartney

China News Reporter

The U.S. and its allies are verging on nuclear war on a global scale, according to North Korean state media.

The official newspaper of the communist country’s Workers’ Party of Korea, the Rodong Sinmun, on Monday released a nationalistic article marking the upcoming anniversary of the July 27, 1953, armistice that ended hostilities in the Korean War.

The article credited North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un, with a victory over “the self-proclaimed ‘strongest’ U.S. imperialists and their followers” that “prevented a new world war that could have brought global disaster and catastrophe, thereby willingly safeguarding world peace.”

However, “even before the ink of the armistice agreement dried,” the U.S. and South Korea began holding regular war games with an eye toward the north, which have continued to this day, the paper wrote.

“The exercises have become increasingly blatant and cruel year by year, now boldly crossing the red line of a new nuclear world war,” it said.

The “United Nations Command,” which brought disaster to this land 70 years ago, has again revealed its dirty visage, with troops from follower countries and even NATO forces joining anti-North Korean war exercises.

The Rodong Sinmun article comes as Kim doubles down on its message that nuclear weapons are essential to his nation’s survival, with the regime last year enshrining its nuclear weapons program in its constitution.

In June, Seoul-based news agency Daily NK cited North Korean sources as saying Pyongyang has been holding mandatory lectures impressing upon citizens the program’s central role in deterring a U.S.-South Korean “war of aggression.”

READ MORE North Korea

• Russia and North Korea Sign New Agreement
• China Makes Nuclear Weapons Demands to U.S. and Allies
• U.S. B-52 Bombers in ‘Historic’ NATO Flight Near Russia
• Why China Doesn’t Trust America’s Nuclear Weapons Talks

Though the Korean Armistice Agreement suspended open conflict on the peninsula, Pyongyang and Seoul never signed a peace treaty and technically remain at war.

Inter-Korean ties are at their lowest level in decades.

Earlier this year, the North amended its constitution to define the South as its “primary foe and invariable principal enemy,” with the country carrying out a months-long series of ballistic missile tests, in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Both North and South Korea have suspended a 2018 military agreement meant to reduce tensions along their border, and the countries are increasingly engaging in a tit-for-tat using tactics reminiscent of the Cold War, from live-fire exercises near the border to balloon exchanges and loudspeakers broadcasts.

Two-thirds of South Koreans favor pursuing nuclear weapons, according to recent polling, though the government recently clarified it is not currently doing so.

Pyongyang’s more assertive posture has also driven Seoul to develop security cooperation with its ally Washington and, increasingly, Tokyo, after decades of often prickly ties stemming from the legacy of the Japanese Empire’s occupation in the early 20th century and a territorial dispute over a small group of islets.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the North Korean embassy in China did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.Subscribe

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are three Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS,Tuesday, (07/23/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Missile Defense Won’t Save Us from Growing Nuclear Arsenals – Boston University

Boston University

You can’t build the impenetrable shield,” says BU military tech expert Sanne Verschuren.

3 Army Reserve officers disciplined after reservist killed 18 people last October in Maine

WBUR

Three Army Reserve officers were disciplined for dereliction of duty in the aftermath of last October’s mass shooting in Maine, according to an …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

French-Italian cooperation to boost Italian steel sector – World Nuclear News

World Nuclear News

Through the MoU, the partners will consider co-investment opportunities in new nuclear energy and, in particular, in the construction of small modular …

TVA’s New Nuclear Program is a Warning Sign to Customers and Local Power Companies

Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

Before putting more eggs in the nuclear basket, TVA should bring their renewable energy generation to at least 40%, and let Tennessee Valley residents …

Nuclear Newswire — ANS – American Nuclear Society

Labor ‘not acknowledging’ nuclear power is used by ‘leading world economies’ – YouTube

YouTube

Shadow Resources Minister Susan McDonald has slammed Labor for “not acknowledging” nuclear power and engaging in a “scare campaign”.

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

New TMF investments support AI Safety Institute, upgrades to nuclear emergency response

FedScoop

The Departments of Energy and Commerce receive a combined $13.8 million from the funding vehicle.

Nuclear an expensive threat to Queensland’s drinking water and communities

Queensland Conservation Council

Regional towns under threat of emergency evacuation if nuclear power comes to Queensland. Map showing the 20km evacuation zone and 80km …

Lu-Ve in €27m deal to supply UK nuclear plant – Cooling Post

Cooling Post

… emergency diesel generators (EDGs) located within the nuclear island of the power plant. The generators are activated when the nuclear plant is …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Russia’s Nuclear-Armed Spacecraft Could Supercharge Space War I – Forbes

Forbes

Moscow’s race to perfect nuclear-armed spacecraft could presage a rapidly expanding new phase of Space War I – with escalating clashes between the …

Kim’s North Korea Warns of ‘Nuclear World War‘ – Newsweek

Newsweek

The U.S. and its allies are verging on nuclear war on a global scale, according to North Korean state media. The official newspaper of the …

Mike Bond’s Latest Thriller, CRUDE: Nuclear War is Coming — Can We Stop It? | Warwick Beacon

Warwick Beacon

After many years working on intelligence and war issues, I now believe we’re about to have a worldwide nuclear war. We and nearly all life will …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Deterrence of non-nuclear strategic threats: the case against deterring new technologies

European Leadership Network

… risks further blurring the lines between nuclear and non-nuclear strategic threats. It opens the door to new vulnerabilities and escalation risks.

ICAN Statement to the 2024 Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee

International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons

Please find the full statement below. Distinguished Delegates,. Nuclear risks are on the rise. The chance of nuclear weapons use are higher than at …

South Korea’s Nuclear Latency: A Critical and Analytical Evaluation – The Diplomat

The Diplomat

North Korea’s advancements in nuclear weapons and missile technology have further exacerbated this threat. The regime’s successful nuclear tests and .

Yellowstone Caldera

NEWS

A small hydrothermal explosion at Norris Geyser Basin | U.S. Geological Survey – USGS.gov

USGS.gov

Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles is a weekly column written by scientists and collaborators of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. This week’s …

8 Most Dangerous Volcanoes To Visit In The World – TheTravel

TheTravel

Yellowstone’s Caldera: How To See This National Park Volcano. Yellowstone’s Caldera has long been a topic of speculation. Let us be your guide to …

Woman Unintentionally Records The Moment Her 23-Year-Old Brother Slipped And Fell Into …

VT.co

… Yellowstone caldera, a “supervolcano” or “hotspot,” per BBC. The caldera’s activity fuels the thermal pools in the area and it also has the …

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

JUL 22, 2024

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LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Monday, (07/22/2024)

Following is an in-depth and sensible primer on what AI and nuclear war (and many other applications) has to do with humanity, our ability to control AI, and the thoughtless deployment of AI without proper human guidance, constant oversite, negative affects on its applications at every level, and how failing to properly control the use of it in general could make it as, or even more, dangerous to humanity and other life than it is as any software equipped tool, business, construction, or other applications — especially a nuclear power plant, and nuclear warfare.

Personally, my experiences with AI (on the Internet) have been all bad and always cause more harm from start to finish than the beneficial services sought, and the reason for that is almost always improper supervision by humans, whose brains are usually required to have some idea basic intelligence, coupled with emotions, thoughts, considerations, rights and wrongs, and even reality, that AI, of course, does not innately have at all. It does what it’s taught and does what it is told in no uncertain terms and therefore allowed to do. It is NOT a substitute nor a replacement for awakened, alert, and expert experienced human programming and yin-yang logic that involves a sense of when something is potentially wrong. An uncontrolled AI system, used in ‘all things nuclear’ is a monstrous uncontrolled weapon as lethal as the nuclear power plant or the weapons of mass destruction it is designed to control ~llaw

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Humans should teach AI how to avoid nuclear war—while they still can

By Cameron Vega, Eliana Johns | July 22, 2024

The systemic use of AI-enabled technology in nuclear strategy, threat prediction, and force planning could erode human skills and critical thinking over time—and even lure policymakers and nuclear planners into believing that a nuclear war can be won. (Image: Screenshot from the 1983 movie WarGames, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)

When considering the potentially catastrophic impacts of military applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a few deadly scenarios come to mind: autonomous killer robots, AI-assisted chemical or biological weapons development, and the 1983 movie WarGames.

The film features a self-aware AI-enabled supercomputer that simulates a Soviet nuclear launch and convinces US nuclear forces to prepare for a retaliatory strike. The crisis is only partly averted because the main (human) characters persuade US forces to wait for the Soviet strike to hit before retaliating. It turns out that the strike was intentionally falsified by the fully autonomous AI program. The computer then attempts to launch a nuclear strike on the Soviets without human approval until it is hastily taught about the concept of mutually assured destruction, after which the program ultimately determines that nuclear war is a no-win scenario: “Winner: none.”

US officials have stated that an AI system would never be given US nuclear launch codes or the ability to take control over US nuclear forces. However, AI-enabled technology will likely become increasingly integrated into nuclear targeting and command and control systems to support decision-making in the United States and other nuclear-armed countries. Because US policymakers and nuclear planners may use AI models in conducting analyses and anticipating scenarios that may ultimately influence the president’s decision to use nuclear weapons, the assumptions under which these AI-enabled systems operate require closer scrutiny.

Pathways for AI integration. The US Defense Department and Energy Department already employ machine learning and AI models to make calculation processes more efficient, including for analyzing and sorting satellite imagery from reconnaissance satellites and improving nuclear warhead design and maintenance processes. The military is increasingly forward-leaning on AI-enabled systems. For instance, it initiated a program in 2023 called Stormbreaker that strives to create an AI-enabled system called “Joint Operational Planning Toolkit” that will incorporate “advanced data optimization capabilities, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to support planning, war gaming, mission analysis, and execution of all-domain, operational level course of action development.” While AI-enabled technology presents many benefits for security, it also brings significant risks and vulnerabilities.

One concern is that the systemic use of AI-enabled technology and an acceptance of AI-supported analysis could become a crutch for nuclear planners, eroding human skills and critical thinking over time. This is particularly relevant when considering applications for artificial intelligence in systems and processes such as wargames that influence analysis and decision-making. For example, NATO is already testing and preparing to launch an AI system designed to assist with operational military command and control and decision-making by combining an AI wargaming tool and machine learning algorithms. Even though it is still unclear how this system will impact decision-making led by the United States, the United Kingdom, and NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group concerning US nuclear weapons stationed in Europe, this type of AI-powered analytical tool would need to consider escalation factors inherent to nuclear weapons and could be used to inform targeting and force structure analysis or to justify politically motivated strategies.

The role given to AI technology in nuclear strategy, threat prediction, and force planning can reveal more about how nuclear-armed countries view nuclear weapons and nuclear use. Any AI model is programmed under certain assumptions and trained on selected data sets. This is also true of AI-enabled wargames and decision-support systems tasked with recommending courses of action for nuclear employment in any given scenario. Based on these assumptions and data sets alone, the AI system would have to assist human decision-makers and nuclear targeters in estimating whether the benefits of nuclear employment outweigh the cost and whether a nuclear war is winnable.

Do the benefits of nuclear use outweigh the costs? Baked into the law of armed conflict is a fundamental tension between any particular military action’s gains and costs. Though fiercely debated by historians, the common understanding of the US decision to drop two atomic bombs on Japan in 1945 demonstrates this tension: an expedited victory in East Asia in exchange for hundreds of thousands of Japanese casualties.

RELATED:

Three key misconceptions in the debate about AI and existential risk

Understanding how an AI algorithm might weigh the benefits and costs of escalation depends on how it integrates the country’s nuclear policy and strategy. Several factors contribute to one’s nuclear doctrine and targeting strategy—ranging from fear of consequences of breaking the tradition of non-use of nuclear weapons to concern of radioactive contamination of a coveted territory and to sheer deterrence because of possible nuclear retaliation by an adversary. While strategy itself is derived from political priorities, military capabilities, and perceived adversarial threats, nuclear targeting incorporates these factors as well as many others, including the physical vulnerability of targets, overfly routes, and accuracy of delivery vehicles—all aspects to further consider when making decisions about force posture and nuclear use.

In the case of the United States, much remains classified about its nuclear decision-making and cost analysis. It is understood that, under guidance from the president, US nuclear war plans target the offensive nuclear capabilities of certain adversaries (both nuclear and non-nuclear armed) as well as the infrastructure, military resources, and political leadership critical to post-attack recovery. But while longstanding US policy has maintained to “not purposely threaten civilian populations or objects” and “not intentionally target civilian populations or targets in violation of [the law of armed conflict],” the United States has previously acknowledged that “substantial damage to residential structures and populations may nevertheless result from targeting that meets the above objectives.” This is in addition to the fact that the United States is the only country to have used its nuclear weapons against civilians in war.

There is limited public information with which to infer how an AI-enabled system would be trained to consider the costs of nuclear detonation. Certainly, any plans for nuclear employment are determined by a combination of mathematical targeting calculations and subjective analysis of social, economic, and military costs and benefits. An AI-enabled system could improve some of these analyses in weighing certain military costs and benefits, but it could also be used to justify existing structures and policies or further ingrain biases and risk acceptance into the system. These factors, along with the speed of operation and innate challenges in distinguishing between data sets and origins, could also increase the risks of escalation—either deliberate or inadvertent.

Is a nuclear war “winnable”? Whether a nuclear war is winnable depends on what “winning” means. Policymakers and planners may define winning as merely the benefits of nuclear use outweighing the cost when all is said and done. When balancing costs and benefits, the benefits need only be one “point” higher for an AI-enabled system to deem the scenario a “win.”

In this case, “winning” may be defined in terms of national interest without consideration of other threats. A pyrrhic victory could jeopardize national survival immediately following nuclear use and still be considered a win by the AI algorithm. Once a nuclear weapon has been used, it could either incentivize an AI system to not recommend nuclear use or, on the contrary, recommend the use of nuclear weapons on a broader scale to eliminate remaining threats or to preempt further nuclear strikes.

“Winning” a nuclear war could also be defined in much broader terms. The effects of nuclear weapons go beyond the immediate destruction within their blast radius; there would be significant societal implications from such a traumatic experience, including potential mass migration and economic catastrophe, in addition to dramatic climatic damage that could result in mass global starvation. Depending on how damage is calculated and how much weight is placed on long-term effects, an AI system may determine that a nuclear war itself is “unwinnable” or even “unbearable.”

Uncovering biases and assumptions. The question of costs and benefits is relatively uncontroversial in that all decision-making involves weighing the pros and cons of any military option. However, it is still unknown how an AI system will weigh these costs and benefits, especially given the difficulty of comprehensively modeling all the effects of nuclear weapon detonations. At the same time, the question of winning a nuclear war has long been a thorn in the side of nuclear strategists and scholars. All five nuclear-weapon states confirmed in 2022 that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” For them, planning to win a nuclear war would be considered inane and, therefore, would not require any AI assistance. However, deterrence messaging and discussion of AI applications for nuclear planning and decision-making illuminate the belief that the United States must be prepared to fight—and win—a nuclear war.

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The use of AI-assisted nuclear decision-making has the potential to reveal and exacerbate the biases and beliefs of policymakers and strategists, including the oft-disputed idea that nuclear war can be won. AI-powered analysis incorporated into nuclear planning or decision-making processes would operate on assumptions about the capabilities of nuclear weapons as well as their estimated costs and benefits, in the same way that targeters and planners have done for generations. Some of these assumptions could include missile performance, accurate delivery, radiation effects, adversary response, and whether nuclear arms control or disarmament is viable.

Not only are there risks of inherent bias in AI systems, but this technology can be purposely designed with bias. Nuclear planners have historically underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons in their calculations, so an AI system fed that data to make recommendations could also systemically underestimate the costs of nuclear employment and the number of weapons needed for targeting purposes. There is also a non-zero chance that nuclear planners poison the data so that an AI program recommends certain weapons systems or strategies.

During peace time, recommendations based on analysis by AI-enabled systems could also be used as part of justifying budgets, capabilities, and force structures. For example, an AI model that is trained on certain assumptions and possibly underestimates nuclear damage and casualties may recommend increasing the number of deployed warheads, which will be legally permissible after New START—the US-Russian treaty that limits their deployed long-range nuclear forces—expires in February 2026. The inherent trust placed in computers by their users is also likely to provide undue credibility to AI-supported recommendations, which policymakers and planners could use to veil their own preferences behind the supposed objectivity of a computer’s outputs.

Despite this heavy skepticism, advanced AI/machine learning models could still potentially provide a means of sober calculation in crisis scenarios, where human decision-making is often clouded, rushed, or falls victim to fallacies. However, this requires that the system has been fed accurate data, shaped with frameworks that support good faith analysis, and is used with an awareness of its limitations. Rigorous training on nuclear strategy for the “humans in the loop” as well as on methods for interpreting AI-generated outputs—that is, considering all its limitations and embedded biases—could also help mitigate some of these risks. Finally, it is essential that governments practice and promote transparency concerning the integration of AI technology into their military systems and strategic processes, as well as the structures in place to prevent deception, cyberattacks, disinformation, and bias.

Human nature is nearly impossible to predict, and escalation is difficult to control. Moreover, there is arguably little evidence to support claims that any nuclear employment could control or de-escalate a conflict. Highlighting and addressing potential bias in AI-enabled systems is critical for uncovering assumptions that may deceive users into believing that a nuclear war can be won and for maintaining the well-established ethical principle that a nuclear war should never be fought.

Editor’s note: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the US State Department.Subscribe

ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Monday, (07/22/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

How the Democrats running for N.H. governor are campaigning | WBUR News

WBUR

The Democratic Party’s primary ballot includes two candidates who share similar policy positions and point to their political resumes as proof of …

Interview: US diplomat Adam Scheinman on nonproliferation, arms control, and the NPT

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

In this interview, Bulletin editor in chief John Mecklin talks with Ambassador Adam Scheinman, who oversees American diplomacy around the Nuclear …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Peter Dutton visits Queensland back country in nuclear energy push

News.com.au

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has for the first time spruiked the Coalition’s controversial nuclear energy plan in an electorate earmarked for a …

The Notebook: Nuclear power continues to divide, but we need to think about the future

City A.M.

Kokou Agbo Bloua, Societe Generale’s global head of economics, takes the pen to talk nuclear, climate volatility and the economic outlook.

One nuclear plant could see 45,000 rooftop solar systems shut off each day | RenewEconomy

Renew Economy

“A [1,000MW] nuclear power station, which can only run down to 500 MW …would usually be supplying more energy than the system needs (Figure 6),” the …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

World’s first meltdown-proof nuclear reactor unveiled in China – Interesting Engineering

Interesting Engineering

In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear reactor experienced a rare event in which the standard and emergency power supply to the cooling mechanism failed, …

Nuclear War

NEWS

Humans should teach AI how to avoid nuclear war—while they still can

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The systemic use of AI technology in nuclear strategy, threat prediction, and force planning could erode human skills and critical thinking.

Russia’s Nuclear-Armed Spacecraft Could Supercharge Space War 1 – Forbes

Forbes

Moscow’s race to perfect spacecraft tipped with nuclear warheads could presage a rapidly expanding new phase of Space War 1, say leading American …

Missile Defense Won’t Save Us from Growing Nuclear Arsenals – Boston University

Boston University

You can’t build the impenetrable shield,” says BU military tech expert Sanne Verschuren.

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Russia’s Nuclear-Armed Spacecraft Could Supercharge Space War 1 – Forbes

Forbes

… nuclear war,” he adds. The U.S. began building its nuclear command … Escalating nuclear threats underscore the urgency for all the nuclear …

Humans should teach AI how to avoid nuclear war—while they still can

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The systemic use of AI technology in nuclear strategy, threat prediction, and force planning could erode human skills and critical thinking.

Breaking the Impasse on Disarmament and Implementing Article VI Obligations

Arms Control Association

We condemn the recent threats from leaders of some nuclear-armed states underscoring their readiness to use nuclear weapons. Any threat to use nuclear 

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

JUL 21, 2024

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Donald Trump doesn’t have the character to be president ~ Kamala Harris

LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Sunday, (07/21/2024)

Of course the news today is all about Biden’s withdrawal from his campaign to seek another term as President, and his likely replacement candidate, Kamala Harris, so I leave my comments to wishing her well, and I do believe she can defeat Donald Trump for the job. On her behalf I offer this from my Facebook page on July 7th:

My only words were:

Maybe this is the one?

As for the nuclear world, the last person on earth to have as our American President would be Donald Trump, and I offer this interesting and well-documented story from yesterday by Lawrence S Wittner for the “Daily Kos”.

Donald Trump’s Reckless Infatuation with Nuclear Weapons

by Lawrence S Wittner

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 1:15:48p PDT

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Over the past decade and more, nuclear war has grown increasingly likely.  Most nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements of the past have been discarded by the nuclear powers or will expire soon.  Moreover, there are no nuclear arms control negotiations underway.  Instead, all nine nuclear nations (Russia, the United States, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea) have begun a new nuclear arms race, qualitatively improving the 12,121 nuclear weapons in existence or building new, much faster, and deadlier ones.  Furthermore, the cautious, diplomatic statements about international relations that characterized an earlier era have given way to public threats of nuclear war, issued by top officials in Russia, the United States, and North Korea. 

This June, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that, given the heightened risk of nuclear annihilation, “humanity is on a knife’s edge.”

This menacing situation owes a great deal to Donald Trump.

As President of the United States, Trump sabotaged key nuclear arms control agreements of the past and the future.  He single-handedly destroyed the INF Treaty, the Iran nuclear agreement, and the Open Skies Treaty by withdrawing the United States from them.  In addition, as the expiration date for the New START Treaty approached in February 2021, he refused to accept a simple extension of the agreement—action quickly countermanded by the incoming Biden administration.  Not surprisingly, Trump was horrified by the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons―a UN-negotiated agreement that banned nuclear weapons, thereby providing the framework for a nuclear-free world.  In 2017, when this vanguard nuclear disarmament treaty was passed by an overwhelming majority of the world’s nations, the Trump administration  proclaimed that the United States would never sign it.

In fact, Trump was far less interested in arms control and disarmament than in entering―and winning―a new nuclear arms race with other nations.  “Let it be an arms race,” he declared in December 2016, shortly after his election victory.  “We will outmatch them at every pass.”  In February 2018, he boasted that his administration was “creating a brand-new nuclear force.  We’re gonna be so far ahead of everybody else in nuclear like you’ve never seen before.”  And, indeed, Trump’s U.S. nuclear “modernization” program―involving the replacement of every Cold War era submarine, bomber, missile, and warhead with an entirely new generation of the deadliest weapons ever invented―acquired enormous momentum during his presidency, with cost estimates running as high as $2 trillion.

Eager to facilitate this nuclear buildup, the Trump administration began to explore a return to U.S. nuclear weapons testing.  Consequently, it announced in 2018 that, although the U.S. government had ended its nuclear tests in 1992 and President Bill Clinton had negotiated and signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996, Trump would oppose U.S. Senate ratification of the treaty.  The administration also dramatically reduced the time necessary to prepare for nuclear weapons test explosions.  In 2020, senior Trump administration officials reportedly conducted a serious discussion of U.S. government resumption of nuclear testing, leading the House of Representatives, then under Democratic control, to block funding for it.

Though many Americans assumed that a powerful U.S. nuclear arsenal would prevent an outbreak of nuclear war, Trump undermined this wishful thinking by revealing himself perfectly ready to launch a nuclear attack.  During his 2016 presidential campaign, the Republican nominee reportedly asked a foreign policy advisor three times why, if the U.S. government possessed nuclear weapons, it should be reluctant to use them.  The following year, Trump told the governor of Puerto Rico that, “if nuclear war happens, we won’t be second in line pressing the button.”

Indeed, Trump came remarkably close to lunching a nuclear war against North Korea.  In August 2017, responding to provocative comments by Kim Jong Un, Trump warned that further North Korean threats would “be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before.” 

Trump’s threat of a nuclear attack triggered a rapid escalation of tensions between the two nations.  In a speech before the UN General Assembly that September, Trump vowed to “totally destroy North Korea” if Kim, whom he derisively labeled “Rocket Man,” continued his provocative rhetoric.  Meanwhile, the White House chief of staff, General John Kelly, was appalled by indications that Trump really wanted war and, especially, by the president’s suggestion of using a nuclear weapon against North Korea and, then, blaming the action on someone else.  According to Kelly, the military’s objection that the war would―in the words of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis “incinerate a couple million people”―had no impact on Trump.  In early 2018, the U.S. president merely upped the ante by publicly boasting that he had a “Nuclear Button” that was “much bigger & more powerful” than Kim’s.

What finally headed off a nuclear war, Kelly recalled, was his appeal to Trump’s “narcissism.”  If Trump could forge a friendly diplomatic relationship with North Korea, the general suggested, the U.S. president would emerge as the “greatest salesman in the world.” And, indeed, Trump did reverse course and embark on a flamboyant campaign to pacify and denuclearize North Korea, remarking that May that “everyone” thought he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize.  Eventually, however, the U.S.-North Korean negotiations, including a much-heralded “summit” between Trump and Kim, resulted in little more than handshakes, North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons, and Trump’s return to public threats of nuclear war―this time against Iran.

Given this record, as well as Trump’s all-too-evident mental instability, we have been fortunate that, in a world bristling with nuclear weapons, the world survived his four years in office.

But our good fortune might not last much longer, for Trump’s return to power in 2025 or the recklessness of some other leader of a nuclear-armed nation could unleash unprecedented catastrophe upon the world.

Ultimately, the only long-term security for humanity lies in the global abolition of nuclear weapons and the development of a united world community.

Lawrence S. Wittner (

https://www.lawrenceswittner.com

) is Professor of History Emeritus at SUNY/Albany and the author of Confronting the Bomb (Stanford University Press).

This article was originally published by The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/4755721-trump-nuclear-arms-race/).

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ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

1. All Things Nuclear
2. Nuclear Power
3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
4. Nuclear War
5. Nuclear War Threats
6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Sunday, (07/21/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

Iran making strides on aspect of nuclear weapons, US asserts

Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

— Iran is talking more about getting a nuclear bomb and has made … all or any part thereof or for any damages arising from any of the ..

US says Iran moving forward on a key aspect of developing a nuclear bomb

The Economic Times

Two senior Biden administration officials stated on Friday that Iran has been increasingly vocal about acquiring a nuclear bomb and has advanced …

Korea Edges Ahead of Rivals to Build Europe’s Nuclear Reactors – Bloomberg News

Bloomberg News

“Now a bridgehead has been established for us to export nuclear plants to Europe,” Korea’s Trade, Industry and Energy Minister Ahn Duk-geun declared …

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Port Augusta residents weigh in on proposed nuclear power plant | ABC News – YouTube

YouTube

Until recently, nuclear power had been off the table in Australia. However, many communities across the country are now grappling with the …

Korea Edges Ahead of Rivals to Build Europe’s Nuclear Reactors – Energy Connects

Energy Connects

Cooling towers stand at the Dukovany nuclear power plant operated by CEZ AS in Dukovany, Czech Republic, on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2014. The next …

Safety warnings as cracks rise at Torness nuclear plant – The Ferret

The Ferret

The number of cracks in a nuclear reactor at Torness has risen to 46, prompting warnings that prolonging its operation would be “gambling with …

Nuclear War

NEWS

U.S. ‘Admits’ Having Nearly 2000 Less Nuclear Warheads Than Russia Amid Wars | Report

YouTube

The US declassified its nuclear stockpile data, revealing 3748 active and inactive warheads as of September 2023, slightly down from 2020.

Nato’s road to nuclear annihilation is paved with platitudes of ‘peace’ – Morning Star

Morning Star

BEYOND the fine words about “peace,” “democracy” and “shared values,” what did the recent Nato and European Political Community summits really …

Boeing ‘fighting through challenges’ in building new Air Force One planes | Reuters

Reuters

The head of Boeing’s defense unit said Sunday the planemaker is still “fighting through challenges” in building two delayed U.S. presidential …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

Donald Trump’s Reckless Infatuation with Nuclear Weapons – Daily Kos

Daily Kos

Trump’s threat of a nuclear attack triggered a rapid escalation of tensions between the two nations. In a speech before the UN General Assembly that …

The USA is preparing to deploy systems for jamming satellites of the Russian Federation and China

Online.ua

The Pentagon is actively expanding its space warfare capabilities due to the threat posed by Chinese and Russian satellites to American military …

Russia’s Putin orders nuclear weapons drills near Ukraine – MSN

MSN

… threat during the offensive in Ukraine, with Putin frequently invoking Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Non-strategic nuclear weapons, also known as ..