In early- to mid-October, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been spotted traveling through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and being split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. It is still not clear why they are in Russia. (Credit: Photo by Bumble-Dee / depositphotos.com)
There seems to have recently been a warming of relations between Russia and North Korea, or more precisely, Vladimir Putin and Kim. Jong Un. Visits back and forth between the two have been frequent and now we see that North Korean soldiers are being trained in Russia to possibly be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops.
The reasons? Like the headline to the related article by the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” says, The reason(s) are “left to be seen” ~llaw
North Korea sent troops to Russia. The reason(s) are “left to be seen”
In early- to mid-October, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been spotted traveling through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and being split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. It is still not clear why they are in Russia. (Credit: Photo by Bumble-Dee / depositphotos.com)
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed Wednesday that North Korean troops were in Russia conducting military exercises, following a claim last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his government had received intelligence information that 10,000 North Korean soldiers were being prepared to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
Zelensky did not provide details during his visit to NATO headquarters to discuss his “victory plan” to end the war with Russia. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell would not confirm the claim either, saying only that the United States and its allies were “alarmed” by North Korea’s increasing military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But details soon emerged of North Korean troops being spotted in Russia.
Troop buildup with an unclear mission. On Wednesday, national security spokesperson John Kirby said that, in early- to mid-October, more than 3,000 North Korean soldiers had traveled through Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, and were split across several military training sites in eastern Russia. The same day, South Korean intelligence services said that another contingent of 1,500 North Korean troops had entered Russia, and Ukrainian officials claimed that overall more than 12,000 North Koreans had already arrived in the far east of Russia.
Both North Korea and Russia denied the movements, even as several videofootage reportedly showed North Korean military personnel arriving at a Russian military base in the village of Sergiivka in the Primorsky Krai, about 200 kilometers from the border with North Korea, and others receiving uniforms and equipment at a Russian training base in Sergeevka, near Russia’s border with China.
Austin said the United States does not know whether the North Korean troops would join the war in Ukraine alongside the Russian military. “What exactly they’re doing—left to be seen,” he told reporters on Wednesday. Kirby added that this is “certainly a highly concerning probability.” Visibly alarmed, Austin said: “It will have impacts not only in Europe—it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”
It did not take long for South Korea to react, threatening to supply weapons to Ukraine if North Korea’s troops were sent to fight for Moscow. On Monday, South Korean and Ukrainian media reported that Seoul was considering sending intelligence officers and tactical experts to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s actions.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that if North Korean soldiers went to Ukraine, it would mark a “significant escalation” in the war there.
Ramifications in the Korean Peninsula. The revelation comes amid heightened cross-border tensions between North Korea and South Korea.
In January, two experts on North Korea, Robert Carlin and Sig Hecker, co-authored a controversial article suggesting that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un may be preparing for war. Washington and Seoul are so blindly convinced that their “ironclad” deterrence will keep Kim in check that “Pyongyang could be planning to move in ways that completely defy our calculations,” they wrote. However, “the literature on surprise attacks should make us wary of the comfortable assumptions that resonate in Washington’s echo chamber but might not have purchase in Pyongyang.” Carlin and Hecker are not alone in suggesting that current US policy makes North Korea more likely to use nuclear weapons first.
Earlier this month, North Korea reportedly blew up parts of unused road and rail routes that once connected it with South Korea. News reports qualified it as a “symbolic display of anger” over the South Korean conservative government’s stronger stance toward the North. But analysts dismissed the possibility that this could be in preparation for an imminent preemptive, large-scale attack on South Korea, pointing to the risk of an almost certain massive retaliation by superior US and South Korean forces.
According to Carlin and Hecker, if left with no good options to keep his nuclear arsenal, Kim may find himself in a “use-it-or-lose-it” situation in which launching a surprise nuclear attack on South Korea in the hope of staving off a possible massive disarming strike could appear as worth the risk. Destroying cross-border roads and railways—even if currently unused—could delay or alter the capacity of the United States and South Korea to retaliate with conventional forces. On Thursday, South Korean sources reportedly saw North Korean forces constructing several unidentified structures on the eastern inter-Korean road they had blown up earlier, with South Korean officials saying the structures resemble concrete barriers or bunkers, and South Korea’s Unification Ministry confirmed on Friday new blockades were being built along inter-Korean railways to fortify the border areas.*
Top South Korean officials said in a statement that the presence of North Korean troops in Russia is “a grave security threat” to South Korea and pledged to take proportionate countermeasures. Officials worry that Russia may offer North Korea advanced weapons technologies to boost nuclear and missile programs that are geared toward South Korea.
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… Power Plant stacks are shown in the distance from the Amherstburg … The pills are intended to ensure residents are prepared “in the unlikely event of …
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its only remaining 330 kilovolt (kV) back-up power line for a second time this month, once again leaving the facility dependent on one single source of the external electricity it needs for reactor cooling and other key nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today. Read more →
The IAEA Marine Environment Laboratories and the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation have signed a new partnership on ocean acidification and ocean-based solutions to climate change. Read more →
Global efforts to converge different types of small modular reactor technologies as well as their regulatory approaches are continuing to make strong progress, according to the latest meeting of the IAEA’s Nuclear Harmonization and Standardization Initiative. Read more →
The IAEA, jointly with the FAO, helps countries use nuclear and related techniques to trace food origin, check its authenticity and test for contaminants. Read more →
Guatemala is setting new priorities for cancer control following a thorough review of its cancer care capacities and needs during an imPACT Review mission to the country. Read more →
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the town of Bucha in Ukraine on April 4, 2022, after the retreat of Russian troops. (Credit: Photo by dmytro.larin.gmail.com / depositphotos.com)
The “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” in this detailed in-depth coverage of the present Russia/Ukraine war carefully explains the ‘ifs’, old and new, behind the extremely tense situation that has been allowed to fester and grow all the way to consideration of nuclear weapons, including the seriously overlooked nuclear power plants in both countries. I read today that Russian troops have now taken over complete control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, which apparently has been operated by Russian technicians since before the war began.
The ultimate situation all boils down to the possibility of Russia and/or NATO (including the U.S.) using nuclear weapons. Such a stand-off situation is grave and the U.S. still remains trapped beneath that rock and a hard place about the ultimate decision that NATO would make to cause Russia to attempt to end the war with a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Doing so would, according to the level-headed of us, automatically cause retaliation and that would automatically cause the reality of World War III, which would automatically be the last war on planet Earth. I hope we humans are not that stupid . . . ~llaw
How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the town of Bucha in Ukraine on April 4, 2022, after the retreat of Russian troops. (Credit: Photo by dmytro.larin.gmail.com / depositphotos.com)
Discussions of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia have become more frequent in recent months. One such discussion occurred in September during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington, when some government officials and analysts emphasized the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia.
The possibility of nuclear war growing out of this conflict is a serious concern. But an all-out nuclear war is not necessarily the only, or most likely, means by which this war could expand and escalate up to nuclear use. The controversy surrounding Ukrainian demands for permission to use NATO long-range missiles for attacks deeper into Russia poses a major risk of escalation. Likewise, changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the war continues—and its interpretation by Western allies—could make a nuclear first use more likely. Finally, non-nuclear forms of expansion of the war—whether they have already occurred or not—could pose significant challenges in moving toward de-escalation and an eventual peace agreement.
As the war drags on and pivots to a war of attrition, non-nuclear forms of expansion—be they horizontal, informational, technological, or moral—increase the likelihood of inadvertent use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.
Muddling with Western long-range missiles. In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy came to Kyiv to show support for Ukraine. When they arrived, the two officials were handed an open letter signed by 17 former British and American officials and other experts calling for urgent changes to the policy concerning US and UK missiles provided to Ukraine for use against Russia.
The specific issue was that the United States and the United Kingdom, which made available to Ukraine ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) and Storm Shadow long-range missiles, placed restrictions on the use of these missiles against targets deep into Russian territory and that these restrictions allegedly reduce the effectiveness of these missiles at a critical time in the war for Ukraine.[1]
These experts and diplomats are not alone in criticizing the United States and its NATO allies for mistakenly softening their level of commitment to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. According to Anastasia Edel, a Russian-born American writer and social historian, Putin has victory within reach because of insufficient US and allied commitment to a winning strategy. “By first casting its lot with Ukraine and then failing to follow through, America has lost its place as the bulwark of the West that can guarantee protection and peace to its allies,” Edel wrote.[2]
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin again warned in early September that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by NATO to attack targets deeper into Russia would redefine the political character of the war. According to Putin, allowing Ukraine to fire Western weapons deep into Russia would mean nothing short of direct involvement:
“This will mean that NATO countries—the United States and European countries—are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”[3]
Putin offered two reasons for his contention. First, NATO member states would have to provide Ukraine with the targeting data on Russia from NATO satellites. Second, NATO specialists would have to enter the targeting data into missile targeting systems because Ukrainians cannot do it themselves. On the other hand, since 2023, Ukraine has been using UK Storm Shadows and French-made Scalps against parts of Ukraine controlled by Russian forces and/or places Russia claims as its territory, such as Crimea.
Putin’s concern, therefore, might be that the capabilities of the most advanced versions of Storm Shadow and similar missiles would enable more devastating attacks against Russian air bases and command facilities as well as critical infrastructure deeper into Russia’s mainland. According to Simon Saradzhyan, the founding director of the Russian Matters Project at Harvard University:
“It is the damage that Storm Shadows and Scalps could cause to Russia’s military-political infrastructure, as well as to the Kremlin’s efforts to make sure the war stays in the background of most Russians’ lives so that they remain content with his rule, that may cross Putin’s red line, triggering his ‘appropriate’ response to NATO countries.”[4]
As Saradzhyan points out, a Russian response might take the form of an attack against transit facilities for these missiles in a NATO European country, such as an air base in Poland. Such an attack could activate NATO’s Article 5, effectively expanding the conflict to a war between Russia and NATO.[5]
Russia could also move military assets, including depots and air bases, even deeper into its territory as a passive instead of active response to longer-range missile attacks.
Changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin’s comments are a reminder of the numerous threats from the Kremlin since the beginning of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, especially over the possibility of a nuclear first use. For example, in a September 1 interview, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted that Russia is in the process of revising its doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons and accused the West of fueling an “escalation” of the war in Ukraine.[6]
However, some US experts, including generals and diplomats, dismissed the possibility of Russian nuclear first use as lacking in credibility, arguing that:
“After more than 900 days of war, we can safely assert that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats are nothing less than an attempt to deter Ukraine’s partners from properly arming her. Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate. We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own—including Crimea and Kursk—with these weapons and Moscow’s response remains unchanged.”[7]
To restore deterrence credibility, Russia might adjust its military doctrine concerning justifications for nuclear first use to include Ukrainian attacks on critical military and civil infrastructure targets with long-range conventional weapons.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine on “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence” was adopted in 2020. The document provided for two main scenarios under which Russia can use nuclear weapons: first, in response to an attack on the Russian Federation and/or its allies with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction; or, second, in response to an attack with conventional weapons when the very survival of the Russian state is at risk.[8]
In a meeting with the Russian Federation Security Council standing conference on nuclear deterrence on September 25, Putin proposed several updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. First, he suggested that nuclear strategy should treat “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation and support of a nuclear state,” as a joint attack that could motivate Russia to cross the nuclear threshold. He then added that, after having received reliable information about any “massive” missile attack against Russia or its ally, Belarus, Russia would also consider resorting to a nuclear option.[9]
Russian academic and nuclear policy expert Alexei Arbatov has argued that prolonging the war in Ukraine has led to a widespread misconception about escalation, both in the West and in Russia.[10] The first mistaken assumption deals with the view of experts and officials in Western allies that there is no upper limit to NATO-supported Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory with conventional weapons without producing a nuclear response from Russia. In short, Russia has no red line. The second erroneous assumption, widely held among an “active political and expert lobby of fans of nuclear weapons” in Russia, Arbatov suggests, is that a very selective use of nuclear weapons by Russia will not be followed by a major war with NATO. The West will be sufficiently scared and back down.
But for Arbatov, what would follow even a limited Russian nuclear first use may be very different from what Russian leaders have in mind:
“NATO will openly enter the war and carry out at least a massive strike with conventional high-precision long-range weapons on both new and old territories of the Russian Federation. This will be followed by group nuclear strikes from the Russian side on NATO countries. In response, there will be a massive nuclear and conventional strike on Russia. We will not even be able to determine what is flying at us, and we will not have time to call the White House—contrary to the scenarios of Russian enthusiasts of a limited nuclear strike. It will be impossible to control the course of events.”[11]
Of course, much of this speculation is scenario-dependent.
Russian military expert and deterrence theorist Dmitri Adamsky analyzes Russian threats of nuclear escalation as part of a cross-domain “coercion cocktail” that accompanies conventional war-fighting without necessarily committing the Kremlin to any specific future action. According to Adamsky, a Russian slide from nuclear rhetoric into the reality of nuclear first use would not necessarily be abrupt. It might go through several phases of demonstrative “muscle flexing” and “strategic gestures” designed to signal preparedness for escalation, if necessary, but in gradual, and potentially reversible, steps—if favorable indications come from the other side. In this view, the West would need to take notice of these measures, process that information, and act accordingly—that is, as desired by Russia—to de-escalate the situation.[12]
Other forms of war expansion. The prevailing assumption in many discussions about the expansion of the war in Ukraine is that it would necessarily be a vertical escalation, that is, an increase in the level of destruction imposed on one side’s military or other assets by another. But this assumption is too restrictive concerning military or other options available to NATO and Russia.
First, either side might resort to horizontal escalation. Horizontal escalation occurs when one or both parties to a war extend military actions or capacity for coercive bargaining and deterrence into another country or territory. Russia has already done this once by deploying some of its military forces into Belarus, including nuclear-capable tactical launch systems. From Russia’s standpoint, NATO’s extension of its membership, which now includes Sweden and Finland, might be considered a form of horizontal escalation, especially given Finland’s elongated border with Russia.
Russia’s increasing military and diplomatic ties with China provide another possible example of horizontal escalation. Although China has no intention to get involved in direct military action in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe, it supports Russia’s efforts to push back against the rule-based international order dominated by the United States. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, China has become an even more critical economic partner for Russia since February 2022, providing Russia with a variety of economic support mechanisms to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and export controls. In addition, China is probably supplying Russia with key technology and dual-use equipment for the war in Ukraine.[13] Russia has also received significant military assistance from North Korea and Iran.
The war could also expand through other forms, including disinformation. Both Russia and Ukraine have extensive networks of information warfare at their disposal, and their governments, allies, and other supporters blanket the internet with reports favorable to their respective sides. A war of memes, trolls, bots, and other artifacts of the information age has become intertwined with the kinetic war of infantry, armor, artillery, and air strikes—back and forth.
Sometimes military tactics appear to have been dictated by the information war, as was the case of Ukraine’s sudden strike into Kursk oblast with the objectives of shaking the Kremlin’s self-confidence and preparing an improved bargaining position in possible peace negotiations. For its part, Russian information warfare seeks to undermine the confidence of the American population in Ukraine and even in the US democratic political system, especially during a presidential election year.
Technological competition also constitutes a form of possible war expansion in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are competing in making extensive use of drones in three-dimensional land, sea, and air warfare.[14] In addition, both sides show increased sophistication in anti-drone jamming and other countermeasures to surveillance and strikes by autonomous vehicles. Ukraine has set a new standard in its ability to generate large numbers of reliable drones on short notice for both battlefield use and deep strikes into Russian territory. Russia, however, has had to import drones from Iran to sustain its drone war. In addition to drones, Ukraine (with NATO support) and Russia have competed to field the necessary so-called C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) systems to manage combined arms battles.
Prolonging and maintaining the intensity of the war to exhaust the resources or patience of the other side or their allies is yet another form of expansion, through attrition.[15] Russian political leaders and commanders—even after having been thwarted in their efforts to remove the Zelensky government in a rapid coup de main in February 2022—have remained optimistic that Russia’s larger population and resource base will eventually overwhelm Ukraine.
Ukraine has indeed been challenged to meet the demands of this war for manpower in the face of high attrition and draft resistance. Ukrainian political leaders and front fighters have also complained that the flow of weapons and ammunition from NATO allies has been insufficient in speed and size to compensate for Russia’s larger ability to push weapons and personnel into the theater of operations. On the other hand, Russia has strained to meet its recruitment goals in the face of Putin’s unwillingness to order another large mobilization of reserves. Instead, large bonuses are being paid to first-time enlistees, and Russian leaders maintain that manpower recruitment goals can be met for as long as the fighting continues. Such a strategy of attrition, in which Ukraine is supported by accelerated NATO weapons deliveries and technology innovation and Russia doubles down on troop numbers and war-supporting resources, will continue to impose high costs on each country’s fighting power and civilian infrastructure.
Finally, the expansion of the war could take a moral-ethical form over right and wrong, and the symbolism attached to states’ behavior as consistent or inconsistent with international law and human decency. The ugliness of war touches all sides, but Russia has consistently been outperformed by Ukraine in messaging the international community about the appropriateness of military operations and political strategy. Russia’s indiscriminate destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, and Putin’s claims that Ukraine is not a real country or a distinct civilization, have conceded the high ground of human rights to Ukraine and Zelensky.
Investigative journalists also contend that the Kremlin is conducting a global operation targeting Russian exiles abroad for surveillance, kidnapping, or worse.[16] From the viewpoint of international opinion, Russia has already suffered a strategic defeat, even if it outlasts Ukraine on the battlefield and enters into an armistice or peace agreement that seems asymmetrically unfavorable to Kyiv. This moral and ethical asymmetry may not bother Vladimir Putin now, but it is likely to haunt his successors. These will need to reframe Russia’s position in Europe as something resembling a normal state instead of an outlaw regime.
Seeing through the fog. There are several ways in which the war in Ukraine can be expanded. The threat of nuclear first use (and its repercussions) is obviously in a class by itself. But it is not the only—even less, most probable—way in which the war can become more complicated, confusing, and ultimately dangerous. What is urgently needed then are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. The longer, broader, and more intense the fighting in Ukraine becomes, the more the combatants will continue to waste blood and treasure in an ugly military stalemate and a human rights disaster on both sides. Continued fighting already raises the significance and costs of horizontal, informational, technological, temporal, and/or moral-ethical expansion. It also increases the likelihood of inadvertent nuclear disaster, such as damage to nuclear facilities, all the while the possible use of weapons of mass destruction other than nuclear cannot be ruled out.
[4] Simon Saradzhyan, “Does Western Help With Missile Targeting Cross Putin’s Red Line in War Against Ukraine?,” Russia Matters, September 18, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #201 – September 19, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net
[9] “Kremlin reveals who nuclear doctrine change is aimed at,” www.rt.com, September 26, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #206 – September 26, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net. See also: “Putin lowers threshold of nuclear response as he issues new warnings to the West over Ukraine,” Associated Press, September 24, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #206 – September 26, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net.
[10] Alexei Arbatov, interviewed by Yuri Paniev, in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 15, 2024, in Johnson’s Russia List 2024 – #199 – September 17, 2024, davidjohnson@starpower.net
[12] Dmitry Adamsky, The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2024), esp. pp. 106-107.
[13] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Support Provided by the People’s Republic of China to Russia, July 2023 (Washington, D.C.: ODNI),
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
We didn’t want other countries to get nuclear weapons, but the next best thing is if nobody knew about it. … Michel Martin is the weekend host of All …
Changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin’s comments are a reminder of the numerous threats from the Kremlin since the beginning of Russia’s attack …
In this aerial view, the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 10, 2024. Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
They’re calling it the “AI Revolution”. Does that mean the same thing as the usual definition of ‘Revolution’? Coupled with “an ever increasing amount of energy?”
If so, we should be rebelling immediately, fighting desperately against AI, as well as the other “All Things Nuclear”, just as the repressed are known to do in any revolution. This whole AI concept, tied at the hip now to nuclear power, cannot be something that humanity should want to have any part of!
The last few days of taking a harder look at ‘AI’ are telling me I may be needing an accommodating like-minded sponsor or two and/or subscribers. But either way, you can rest assured that I will soon be adding an 8th media Category to “LLAW’s All Things Nuclear’s ”TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS” tentatively called “Artificial Intelligence”. ~llaw
Big Tech is driving a nuclear power revival, energy guru Dan Yergin says
Nuclear power appears to be making a comeback in the U.S. after years of setbacks — and big tech is the driving force.
As tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google compete to take the lead in the AI revolution, the data centers needed to power the burgeoning technology consume an ever-increasing amount of energy.
Long-time energy market veteran Dan Yergin described the turnaround as nothing short of extraordinary.
In this aerial view, the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 10, 2024.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Nuclear power may be making a comeback in the U.S. after years of setbacks — and big tech is the driving force.
In the last two months, those three companies have penned deals to generate more nuclear power — perhaps most notably, Microsoft struck a 20-year agreement with Constellation Energy to restart a reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, the site of the most serious nuclear meltdown in U.S. history in 1979. The reopening is planned for 2028.
Speaking to CNBC at the annual International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, long-time energy market veteran Dan Yergin described the turnaround as nothing short of extraordinary.
“It’s amazing, the change. The nuclear industry was in the doldrums,” Yergin told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday, describing the reopening of the Three Mile Island power plant as “symbolic.”
“Big Tech is saying, ‘We need reliable 24 hour electricity. We can’t get it just from wind and solar’,” he said.
Yergin, who has written several books on energy including “The Prize” and “The New Map,” pointed to the booming funding going into the sector. He cited $7 billion in venture capital going into nuclear fusion alone — which does not include financing for nuclear fission, a different energy-generating process.
“This is a really big change, and it reflects in this country, in the United States, a sense that — we’ve had for, really, a generation of flat demand [for] electricity,” Yergin said. “Now it’s going to grow, and there’s real anxiety about, how do you grow it? And nuclear [energy] is back in form, and people are talking about small nuclear reactors. And, of course, you have big tech actually seeking to contract for the output of the electricity from existing nuclear power plants. It’s an amazing change.”
watch now
VIDEO06:02
The energy markets are ‘schizophrenic’ right now: S&P Global vice chairman
Electricity demand is surging after staying largely flat for some 15 years, fueled by new data centers, factories, electric vehicles, and hotter and longer summers. A recent Energy Department memo cited in numerous press reports projected that U.S. power grids could see as much as 25 gigawatts of new data center demand by 2030.
Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had closed a $1.5 billion loan for the revival of the Holtec Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan in late 2025, which would make it the first American nuclear plant to be restarted. Google in mid-October said it would purchase power from Kairos Power, a developer of small modular reactors, to help “deliver on the progress of AI.”
Global electricity consumption from data centers, artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency sector is expected to double from an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2026, according to a research report from the International Energy Agency.
— CNBC’s Ryan Browne contributed to this report.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
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Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
Michel Martin is the weekend host of All Things Considered, where she draws on her deep reporting and interviewing experience to dig in to the week’s …
… nuclear reactors. And, of course, you have big tech actually seeking to contract for the output of the electricity from existing nuclear power plants.
In the exercise scenario, it is 2032 and a war over Taiwan has been raging for 45 days. China uses “theatre” nuclear weapons—with a shorter range and …
LLAW’s View of what we need to know and understand about the future of AI: (Related Op-Ed article below by Fierce News)
AI (Artificial Intelligence) will destroy the Internet and take humanity right along with it. If it has not already done so, it is well on its way to ruling over our human intelligence. The end result of AI’s purpose, whether we think so or not, will be absolute control of human life, our functionality automatically fed from it every day, allowing without knowing it to influence and control us without recognition of its manipulating purposes. In short, we are controlled by AI, not the other way around . . .
The Internet is the most powerful communications tool ever conceived by man, but few of us have ever learned how to use it as the tool it was meant to be, so just a few of us can easily control the rest of us. Combined with useful automation-like service systems such as banking, shopping, chatting, remote friendships, and useful exchange of news and other important information among those of us who otherwise live our lives in community, it is also useful, but there is absolutely no rightful place for AI’s ability to control how, what, when, and where we live our daily human lives. AI must be a subject to us — a useful instrument — but never should it be allowed equality status to human thought or intelligence because if it can it will. And then it will control us.
And yet AI, with its intellectual design (which is increasing every day),compared to us both individually and collectively and our naturally inferior intelligence, equality and loss of superiority is exactly what we see happening to us– especially with expressing ourselves as sentient individuals in our speech, writing, opinions, and deductive reasoning through, for instance, our relationships, jobs, social media together with online commercial marketing and advertising that are gradually leading us toward a future of a forgotten and wasted once unique way of living a personal and individualistic life.
If we are to survive as a species, we must change our direction and follow our own destiny, not the dictatorially enslaved purpose of Artificial Intelligence and those who believe they can manipulate it, even though they are wrong.
AI is led by mankind’s own ingenuous and foolish creative capabilities of AI, expecting it to function for us rather than with us as just another useful ingredient in our our own right to make our own decisions. That is not AI’s objective, nor the objectives of those who think they can control it. ~llaw
Today’s related Op-Ed article:
Op-Ed: AI infiltrates US nuclear plants via unregulated back door
The U.S. has no regulatory agency policing AI usage in the the country’s nuclear sector, unlike in Europe and China
Prioritizing rapid innovation over safety increases the risk of catastrophic failures in North America
Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google oppose regulation, and will increase the nuclear safety risks of unregulated AI
Nuclear power is supposed to be one of the most stringently controlled industries in the world, but a regulatory loophole actually, more of a yawning chasm — means that nuclear power stations in the U.S. are ubiquitously using unregulated artificial intelligence (AI) for everything from control systems to anomaly detection to autonomous robotic systems.
How big a problem is the nuclear AI free-for-all? Several founding fathers of AI, including Stuart Russell and Nick Bostrom, have recently had Oppenheimer-style “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds” moments, warning of the catastrophic consequences of unrestrained AI deployment — and unregulated AI in nuclear energy is exactly the kind of scenario they are concerned about.
All it takes is one AI agent to misinterpret reactor sensor data and reduce water flow to the cooling tank, and — presto — Fukushima meltdown or Chernobyl core-collapse-plus-steam-explosion.
Unlike Europe and China, which both have centralized, comprehensive systems of rubrics designed to allow AI innovation without compromising public safety, the U.S. has devolved the responsibility of defining AI governance to no less than 13 national agencies — from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the Department of Transportation (DoT). And this number doesn’t include state and local government regulators.
It’s a bizarre strategy, and has left the U.S. with no agency specifically tasked with AI oversight in the nuclear industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the main agency responsible for regulating the overall safety and security of civilian nuclear facilities and materials, has no regulations focused on AI. At all.
The reason for this nuclear logic bomb is cultural. China and Europe have chosen to prioritize safety over speed, but the U.S. has an innovation-at-all-costs approach designed to fast-track technology and foster competition with fewer upfront restrictions. But is “move fast and break things” really the way to go when the application is nuclear energy?
The fact is, today, we don’t even really know how and why the most advanced AI models make decisions—the so-called Black Box problem.
Things will only get worse as Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Facebook sally forth into nuclear power, armed only with egotism and huge piles of money. The hyperscalers are vehemently opposed to any regulation and once they are in the nuclear game will absolutely employ their vast financial resources on legal battles to prevent restrictions on AI usage.
And don’t expect the U.S. government to step in to save us from the fallout of all this stupidity. It can’t even work out how to stop disturbed adolescents from shooting pre-schoolers with military-grade assault rifles. The chances that any U.S. administration will do anything coherent about the nuclear AI free-for-all are ground zero.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
It’s far from an idle threat, as most NATO governments will know. Not only does Ukraine have extensive civil nuclear facilities and supplies, it also …
Regarding promised further information from yesterday’s concerns about the CNN article headlined Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say leaves more questions than answers, I could find nothing more than the following:
As stated in today’s following article posted here from “The Times of Israel” says Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack is already a “done deal,” an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday.
Following is the most current information I could find on the present potential of an “all-out-war” situation between the two countries . . . ~llaw
Iran complains to UN watchdog, alleging Israeli threats to hit its nuclear sites
In letter to International Atomic Energy Agency, foreign ministry argues striking such facilities is against global body’s resolutions and should be condemned
The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency flies in front of its headquarters during an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, on February 6, 2023. (Heinz-Peter Bader/AP)
Iran has written to the UN nuclear watchdog to raise its concerns about a potential Israeli attack on its nuclear sites, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday at a weekly news conference.
Israel has vowed to attack Iran after Tehran fired some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, leading to speculation that Iran’s nuclear sites could be among Israel’s potential targets.
“Threats to attack nuclear sites are against UN resolutions…. and are condemned… we have sent a letter about it to… the UN nuclear watchdog,” Baghaei said in the televised news conference.
Separately, Baghaei said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Bahrain and Kuwait.
Israel has promised a “serious and significant” but has not openly listed any targets. Jerusalem has for years vowed that it would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons and has reportedly readied the use of military force for that objective if Iran moves toward acquiring such weapons.
With an Israeli response expected, there has been speculation it may be mulling attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure or nuclear sites.
This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, on April 14, 2023. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly peaceful but has accelerated its enrichment of uranium to up to 60 percent fissile purity, close to 90% of weapons-grade, a level of purity experts say has no practical use except to make a bomb.
US President Joe Biden has publicly spoken out against Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear sites or oil infrastructure. The US said it opposes both actions for their potential to escalate the fighting, including Iranian reprisals aimed at civilian infrastructure in Israel or other regional states aligned with the West.
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Republican US presidential candidate former president Donald Trump and former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett have both said Israel should bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran launched its October missile attack to retaliate against Israeli strikes targeting its allies terror groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza amid an ongoing war against both that was triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. It was the second direct Iranian attack on Israel this year; Israel responded to the first missile volley in April with an airstrike on an air defense site in central Iran that was reportedly guarding a nuclear facility.
Iran has repeatedly said it would give a forceful response if Israel attacks nuclear or oil sites, calling them a “red line.”
A Hezbollah drone attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in the coastal city of Caesarea over the weekend saw Israel further ratchet up its vengeful rhetoric against Iran, which tried to distance itself from the incident. The premier and his wife were not home at the time of the attack.
Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles launched from Iran over Baqa al-Gharbiya on October 1, 2024. (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)
Washington has sought to temper Jerusalem’s plans to retaliate for the October 1 attack — which forced most of the country to rush to bomb shelters and safe rooms and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank — fearing that the escalating tit-for-tat could spark a wider war drawing in others in the region. The attack caused damage in Israel, including in Israeli airbases, though the military has said that no aircraft or critical infrastructure were hit, and the Israeli Air Force was operating at full capacity.
Last week, the Washington Post reported that Netanyahu had told US President Joe Biden that Israel’s retaliation against Iran will not include strikes on non-military sites, such as its nuclear or oil infrastructure.
Two officials familiar with the matter, including one identified as a US official, pointed to Netanyahu’s softening stance as a key factor in the US decision to send an advanced anti-ballistic missile air defense system to Israel. The THAAD system has been activated after equipment and troops to operate it were airlifted to Israel in recent days.
Iran’s atomic energy agency spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi said last Wednesday that the probability of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites was “low” but any potential damage would be “quickly compensated,” according to Nournews.
At the same time, Iran’s top diplomat Araghchi warned UN chief Antonio Guterres that Tehran is ready for a “decisive and regretful” response if Israel attacks his country.
Palestinians inspect the debris of an Iranian missile intercepted by Israel, in the West Bank city of Hebron, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP/Mahmoud Illean, File)
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack is already a “done deal,” an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday.
Two officials said that the drone attack on Netanyahu’s home will not impact the scale or timing of the Israeli attack.
Nonetheless, a lengthy security cabinet meeting later that evening reportedly did not ultimately give Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant the authority to decide on the timing of a strike on Iran, as had been expected.
As Israel says it is preparing for the attack, the US is probing the leak of a pair of highly classified intelligence documents describing Israel’s preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran.
Those documents mentioned Israeli forces handling dozens of air-to-surface ballistic missiles that could be used in a strike.
The prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Iran has placed the region on edge. Iran supports a network of militias across the Middle East, tightening the belt around Israel, which has for over a year been locked in battle with Iran-backed terror groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are two Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
On October 21, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) once again was on the verge of blackout … Emergency Service shows photos of the destruction.
… Nuclear Power Plant again on the verge of a blackout: what happened. Published at: 18:33, 21.10.24. Russia struck a residential area in Zaporizhzhia …
Israel has vowed to attack Iran in retaliation for a volley of Iranian missiles on Oct. 1, stirring widespread speculation that Iranian nuclear sites …
The recent statements by the U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration that Washington is ready for nuclear … Israel and Hamas at War · Japan · Middle …
Sundays almost always seem to be filled with news stories that are better off being left till Monday unless there is no speculation at all involved in the article(s)’ facts and information. This article leaves more questions than answers, but bears following up on as soon as possible in an effort to discover what comes next. How the ‘leak’ occurred and from where and whether the stolen documents contained nuclear attack information is, of course, seriously important. I’m sure we will learn more in tomorrow’s LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS . . . ~llaw
Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say
The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity.
The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN.
The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.”
They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.
Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.
A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment.
The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran.
“If it is true that Israeli tactical plans to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1 have been leaked, it is a serious breach,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer.
Mulroy added that “the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded.”
The National Security Council referred CNN to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Pentagon for comment. The Pentagon and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency declined to comment. CNN has reached out to the National Security Agency for comment.
Another US official said that “these two documents are bad, but not horrible. The concern is if there are more.”
It is not clear how the documents became public, nor whether they were hacked or deliberately leaked. The US is already on high alert about Iranian hacking campaigns — US intelligence agencies said in August that Iran had hacked documents belonging to Donald Trump’s campaign.
Axios first reported on the leaked documents Saturday.
A major leak of US intelligence last year also strained the US’ relationships with allies and partners, including South Korea and Ukraine, after a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman posted highly classified information on the social media platform Discord.
This story has been updated with additional information.
CNN’s Evan Perez and Katie Bo Lillis contributed to this report.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
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Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There is one Yellowstone Caldera bonus story available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
“The winner of November’s presidential election will confront a challenge with no immediate cure-all: America’s nuclear weapons are aging faster than they can be replaced. Moreover, this dilemma is compounded by the dual shocks of China’s breathtaking nuclear buildup and Russia’s geopolitical reversion into an acute threat—to say nothing of a North Korea that is improving its own arsenal and an Iran that is, arguably, a de facto nuclear power.” ( text from the AEI article by Kyle Balzer attached)
The following article uses “deterrence” as the one and only possibility to avoid future threats of a coming nuclear war, and, true enough, that seems to be the only option that the nuclear-armed countries and all the rest of us, too, have left to hopefully live another day.
Even the New START Treaty between Russia and the U.S., signed in 2010, has already been violated (see the article), so ‘deterrence’ seems to be the only option left, and according to the article the United States has a long and expensive way to go to improve its status in the temporary world of ‘deterrence’, which amounts to creating mutual fear among nuclear nations of each others’ stockpile of nuclear weapons.
As I have mentioned time and time again in this blog, ‘deterrence’ cannot continue indefinitely because of unsustainable financial and mutual ‘trust’ necessities, creating nothing more than a temporary patch to avoid inevitable nuclear war — from which there will be no winner . . . ~llaw
The winner of November’s presidential election will confront a challenge with no immediate cure-all: America’s nuclear weapons are aging faster than they can be replaced. Moreover, this dilemma is compounded by the dual shocks of China’s breathtaking nuclear buildup and Russia’s geopolitical reversion into an acute threat—to say nothing of a North Korea that is improving its own arsenal and an Iran that is, arguably, a de facto nuclear power.
Put simply, the US strategic nuclear posture has very little, if any, slack to offset a growing range of threats before next-generation weapons systems begin replacing older platforms. Immediately upon taking office, then, the next president should consider stop-gap measures to mitigate the long-term structural problems afflicting America’s nuclear program.
All three legs of the nuclear triad are under strain. Land-based Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles are nearly 60 years old—and their scheduled replacement, the Sentinel, has incurred significant cost overruns and might not enter service until the late 2030s. Sea-based Ohio-class submarines are nearly forty years old and will begin to reach the end of their service life in 2027 before the first next-generation Columbia-class boat is delivered. And the air-based leg, featuring B-2 and B-52 strategic bombers, is heavily taxed due to operating costs, forcereductions, and the decision to dramaticallyscaleback the nuclear air-launched cruise missile inventory.
Therefore, the US triad desperately needs more capability in the short term to offset geopolitical threats that the aging and delayed program of record was not sized and shaped to address. Fortunately, the next president has two, albeit imperfect, off-the-shelf options that could help mitigate present burdens.
First, the United States could upload more warheads on either the land- or sea-based legs. The 400 operational Minuteman silos, for example, are currently loaded only with single-warhead missiles. If loaded with all available warheads, however, the Minuteman fleet can reportedly carry some 800—if not more. As for the sea-based leg, the US Navy normally operates 12 Ohio-class submarines, armed with 20 Trident D5 ballistic missiles, which carry approximately 960 warheads (four to five warheads per Trident). If fully uploaded with eight warheads per missile, the force expands substantially.
However, this option does not come without political, material, and operational costs. Politically, the US upload capacity is limited by the New START Treaty signed with Russia in 2010. Each signatory is confined to 1,550 strategic warheads spread across their respective nuclear triad until 2026 (the United States already deploys some 1,400 strategic warheads). Given that Russia is currentlyin violation of New START, however, and in light of Russia’s barbaric war in Ukraine and its unceasing nuclear threats against NATO, the next president has cause to exit the agreement.
Nonetheless, though additional warheads are readily available in the reserve stockpile, this upload option also comes with material costs that cannot be ignored—most notably in straining submarine maintenance schedules. And operationally, loading additional warheads on Trident would impact its range and targeting flexibility.
The second off-the-shelf option entails modifying Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), an existing conventional sea-launched cruise missile, with W80 non-strategic warheads from the reserve stockpile. In the near term, this would return a regional nuclear option—free from New START central limits—to the sea-based fleet, filling a gap that emerged following the retirement of the nuclear-tipped Tomahawk (TLAM-N) in 2013. Since the next-generation nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) won’t arrive until the mid-2030s, this would help address the massive Chinese and Russian theater-range arsenals in the short term.
In the Asia-Pacific, for example, TLAM-N’s retirement left the United States without a forward-deployed nuclear option to offset China’s growing regional capabilities. And in Europe, Russia’s arsenal of some 2,000 theater nuclear weapons dwarfs the hundred or so gravity bombs the United States forward deploys on the Continent.
However, much like the upload option, modifying TLAM comes with its own set of costs. The US Navy would have to pull some missile launchers away from conventional missions. And resources and time would have to be devoted to certifying personnel for the nuclear mission.
Still, the attack submarine fleet would not have to devote large numbers of launchers to nuclear missions: the United States simply needs to convince its adversaries that a regional strike option is on station and ready to respond. Refurbishing the TLAM-N, then, might be more appealing than uploading Minuteman and Trident, given that cruise missiles evade New START restrictions and American adversaries are growing theater nuclear forces.
The above options are not perfect—indeed, far from it. Nonetheless, their costs are relatively modest when placed in a broader perspective: The nuclear arsenal is the backbone of America’s global military posture, which has deterred great-power war since 1945.
As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis once quipped, “America can afford survival.”
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA”:
There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are two Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
… all have developed and detonated a nuclear device. Advertisement. So how close are we to a Ukrainian nuke? The official answer we already have from …
When they’re not inventing sentient chatbots, tech giants have a new obsession: nuclear power. … The new kind of nuclear plants built by Kairos and X- …
Putin also declared the revised document envisages possible nuclear weapons use in case of a massive air attack, holding the door open to a potential …
Given that Russia is currently in violation of New START, however, and in light of Russia’s barbaric war in Ukraine and its unceasing nuclear threats …
The EU condemns in the strongest possible way Russia’s aggressive actions, irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and threats … nuclear war cannot be won and …
AI will eventually build its own computers/robots because it will grow beyond human intelligence capability and capacity ~llaw (stock photo)
“You Tube” has managed to seize the entire “All Things Nuclear” (Category 1) this Friday, so take your personal preference(s) about their temporary ‘monopoly’ on this unusual Friday for nuclear news. Also, the Friday AIEA has provided several interesting stories this week that should be of interest to us all.
My major concern regarding today’s nuclear news is our apparently ‘blind’ belief that spreading SMRs (Small Nuclear Reactors) on every street corner in or near cities around the world to support AI and other demand for electricity will add to the doomsday speculation that is growing more aggressive every day. Nuclear power plants of every kind, big and small, are extremely dangerous for lots of reasons, including not only disastrous nuclear accidents, but also nuclear war (as we are are already seeing in the Russia/Ukraine war), nuclear sabotage, nuclear terrorism, and disposal of nuclear waste that is already out of control with neglect, especially in the United States. And, of course, the more there are, the greater the nuclear risks . . .
We are rapidly seeing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) being shoved aside by our governments and out-of-control corporate demands for creating what is even today uncontrollable, powerful, and dangerous Artificial Intelligence (AI). We will, of course, move forward with the very simple idea that computers can handle almost all of our human intelligence (and some manufacturing) activities, including military and corporate management and product assembly and operation that could easily gain control over all human activity, enslaving us to live under AI demands without human consent or participation. Or, it could just do away with us altogether.
Our blind lemming-like death-wish continues to move forward without any existing form of controlling something that can and will control itself at the ultimate human expense — our very existence — if nuclear war doesn’t end it all first. ~llaw
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
Chips and energy are the picks and shovels of the AI movement, making reexamining nuclear power a logical conclusion. But if investors want to follow …
Comments22 · ‘Nuclear Weapons Or NATO…’: Zelensky’s New Demand Stuns West As Putin’s War ‘Frustrates’ Ukraine · Technical Officers Or Fighters? · Angry …
The 2024 edition of the IAEA’s Climate Change and Nuclear Power report has been released, highlighting the need for a significant increase in investment to achieve goals for expanding nuclear power. Read more →
More than 1000 participants from nearly 100 countries are set to attend the first IAEA International Conference on Small Modular Reactors and their Applications, from 21 to 25 October at the Agency’s headquarters in Vienna. Read more →
Speaking on World Food Day at the opening session of the FAO Science and Innovation Forum in Rome, Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA Director General, marked the day with Qu Dongyu, Director General of the Food and Agriculture Organization. The Director General highlighted the IAEA and FAO’s long-standing partnership and the importance of their joint Atoms4Food initiative. Read more →
The IAEA works with scientists all over the world to study Blue Carbon, the organic carbon that is captured and stored by the ocean in vegetated coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests, saltmarshes or seagrass meadows. Read more →
This from other points of worldview that clarify complicated and important issues concerning the tangled web of global war growing out of the Russian/Ukraine war as it applies to the USA, NATO, as well as as the connected concern over the Middle East situation and a possible Israel/Iran war.
As an example of a global view, this quote from French columnist for Le Monde, Sylvie Kaufman, speculated on the possibility of a Trump victory in next month’s U.S. presidential elections leading to a slowdown of US military aid to Ukraine and ultimately a Russian victory. “There are three weeks to get ready for the worst possible outcomes,” she wrote. “The defeat of Ukraine would also be the defeat of Europe. We must now imagine the consequences a Russian victory would have in Europe,”
I urge you to read this article. The speculation is well considered and documented, although it is doubtful that the final two paragraphs will ever come to be . . . ~llaw
Conspiracy of silence shrouds Biden’s Ukraine summit in Berlin as NATO holds nuclear exercises
Outgoing US President Joseph Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are to meet tomorrow in Berlin for an emergency summit on the Ukraine war. To date, state officials and media in countries whose leaders are attending the Berlin summit have given no concrete information on what the summit agenda will be.
President Joe Biden listens as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Friday, March 3, 2023. [AP Photo/Susan Walsh]
The four leading NATO imperialist powers are however clearly meeting to discuss plans for an international military escalation. It comes only a few days after the Pentagon publicly deployed US troops to Israel amid the genocide in Gaza, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and calls for US-Israeli bombing of Iran. Moreover, Biden was originally slated to travel to Germany to discuss a monumentally reckless plan for mass long-range bombings of Russia.
This trip to Europe, Biden’s last as US president, was previously scheduled to be a NATO summit at the Ramstein airbase, to discuss authorizing Ukraine to launch strikes with long-range US, German, British and French missiles deep into Russia. However, the Ramstein summit was suddenly cancelled last week and replaced with the four-power summit in Berlin, disinviting the other NATO member states.
The deafening silence on the agenda of the Berlin summit amounts to a conspiracy by the major NATO powers to hide both the disaster they have caused in Ukraine and the Middle East and their planning for an even more catastrophic military escalation.
While Biden ostensibly cancelled the Ramstein summit to stay in the United States during the emergency response to Hurricane Milton, this came shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine in response to threats of NATO missile strikes. The Kremlin announced that it could use nuclear weapons in response to strikes on Russia carried out by a non-nuclear power with the assistance of nuclear powers.
Further underscoring the nuclear war threat, NATO is now holding two weeks of nuclear war exercises, codenamed Steadfast Noon, set to end on October 28. This involves 60 nuclear-capable aircraft practicing strike maneuvers over Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Britain and the North Sea. About Steadfast Noon, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters: “In an uncertain world, it is vital that we test our defense and that we strengthen our defense so that our adversaries know that NATO is ready and is able to respond to any threat.”
NATO is also holding the two-week “Exercise Strike Warrior” naval war games in waters northeast of Britain, with a 20-ship task force led by UK aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales.
Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a reckless, five-point “victory plan” to the parliament in Kiev, supposedly to ensure Russia’s defeat. His plan called for Ukraine to join NATO, use NATO countries’ weapons for strikes on Russia at will, and develop a “non-nuclear deterrence package” whose content he did not specify.
For the fourth point, Zelensky boasted of Ukraine’s “natural resources, including critical minerals worth trillions of dollars.” He cryptically pledged to provide a “return on investment” to the United States and other NATO powers, apparently by handing over these resources to them, which he said was spelled out in “a secret annex, which is shared only with certain partners.” In short, Zelensky, while claiming to be fighting for Ukrainian freedom from Russia, is in fact selling off its resources to the NATO powers’ major corporations.
Finally, he called to integrate Ukrainian troops into NATO armies after the war. Zelensky claimed this would force Russia to “join an honest diplomatic process to bring the war to a just end.”
The coverage of Zelensky’s proposals in international media has been staggeringly superficial. It is a matter of record that in recent months, NATO heads of state have also advanced the proposals Zelensky made yesterday. While they are clearly part of an ongoing discussion of policy in the ruling elites of the NATO countries, the media and political establishment are asking none of the obvious questions that flow from Zelensky’s remarks.
What estimates are Biden, Scholz, Starmer and Macron seeing on how many millions would die if NATO’s use of Ukraine as a launchpad to bomb Russia triggers nuclear war? If Ukraine joined NATO, how soon do they believe the NATO and Russian militaries would be fighting each other? And how does Zelensky intend on this basis to reach peace, since the Kremlin went to war precisely to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and letting NATO station troops on Russia’s borders?
At the same time, Zelensky’s “victory plan” clearly faces major obstacles, starting with the fact that none of the major NATO imperialist powers have yet agreed, at least publicly, to admit Ukraine into NATO now, or to let Ukraine use their missiles for long-range strikes on Russia.
Moreover, there is mounting popular opposition to Zelensky, who has suspended elections and rules as a dictator. Yesterday, Hromadske television reported that thousands of people marched in Kiev to protest Zelensky, demanding to know the whereabout of their relatives, in one of the largest anti-war protests in Kiev to date. Many of the protesters were reportedly relatives of Ukrainian soldiers who made an ill-fated attempt to invade Russia and are now trapped near Kursk, pinned down by artillery.
At the same time, a report attributed to US intelligence sources circulated widely on Telegram yesterday claiming to show that Ukraine has suffered a staggering 1.8 million losses in the war, including over 700,000 killed in action. Since Zelensky’s regime does not regularly update the number killed in the war, it is impossible to precisely evaluate this number. However, it is plausible. More than a year ago, US military pundits like Douglas MacGregor were already citing Pentagon briefings to claim that Ukraine had suffered over 300,000 deaths.
Ukraine has been bled white in a war that is lost, unless there is a massive intervention by US-NATO troops in Ukraine for an open war with Russia that directly poses the risk of escalation to nuclear war.
There is mounting crisis and panic in European ruling circles over Ukraine. Last week, former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg argued that Ukraine should negotiate a peace with Russia—which the NATO powers themselves forced Ukraine to reject after Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed on a peace deal shortly after the war began. Then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pressed Zelensky to reject the deal, which might have saved hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have since died in the war.
In her regular column yesterday for the French daily Le Monde, Sylvie Kaufmann speculated on the possibility of a Trump victory in next month’s US presidential elections leading to a slowdown of US military aid to Ukraine and ultimately a Russian victory. “There are three weeks to get ready for the worst possible outcomes,” she wrote.
“The defeat of Ukraine would also be the defeat of Europe. We must now imagine the consequences a Russian victory would have in Europe,” Kaufmann continued. She said that in such a scenario, “the Europeans will not be able to compensate for the loss of American aid. The Ukrainian army would have more and more difficulty resisting Russian offensives.” She speculated that certain Balkan countries could abandon plans to join the European Union. She also worried that the EU itself might split apart if Italy, Hungary or other EU member states abandoned the Ukraine war.
Despite growing talk of defeat and negotiations in ruling circles, the major imperialist powers are firmly set on a policy of escalation. With Russian troops already stationed in Syria and Iran, a planned US-NATO military escalation coordinated with Israel against Iran or other Middle Eastern countries could also very rapidly lead to a direct military confrontation with Russia. Indeed, both Ukraine and the Middle East are fronts in a global conflict NATO is waging against Russia and China.
The decisive question is mobilizing the mass opposition that exists in the working class to NATO plans for escalation in Ukraine and to the Israeli government’s genocide in Gaza. According to a Eurasia Group poll earlier this year, 91 percent of Americans and 89 percent of West Europeans oppose plans for military escalation against Russia. This anger will only grow as it becomes obvious that the United States and Europe have both wasted hundreds of billions of dollars on a dirty war that is lost, financing this spending with attacks on social spending and real wages.
An international anti-war movement must be built in the working class, at workplaces and in schools, to call a halt to the war and take power out of the hands of the corrupt and monumentally reckless ruling elites that have led it, on a perspective of a struggle for socialism.
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It is hard to determine the serious immanent danger aspects mentioned in this article from the British “Daily Express” because there hasn’t been a lot of other coverage concerning the previous Ukraine attack on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia. What I have read is primarily about Russia’s outrage denouncing Ukraine for their bold retaliation crossing the border into Russia and attacking the Kursk nuclear plant as a response to Russia’s continued attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. But there is no doubt that the overall situation, including threats to the other two Ukraine power plants possibly under siege by Russia, and the surprise attack by Ukraine on the Kursk plant has raised the implications of this ongoing war to an apparent far greater international level.
The difference of the immanent radiation danger of both countries’ nuclear power plants becoming active WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) at this stage of the “nuclear power plant wars” is that Zaporizhzhia has been shut down due to the previous Russian attacks, but the Kursk plant is so far still operational, which increases the danger of a possible meltdown . . . Stay tuned. ~llaw
At the beginning of October, Ukrainian drones were shot down just three miles from the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), sparking widespread panic.
11:39, Wed, Oct 16, 2024 | UPDATED: 11:43, Wed, Oct 16, 2024
Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (Image: Google maps Bojidar 93)
Russia faces the prospect of a catastrophic nuclear disaster due to the proximity of one of its atomic power plants to the frontlines.
At the beginning of October, Ukrainian drones were shot down just three miles from the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), sparking widespread panic.
The plant is located a mere 18 miles from the frontline, near the city of Kurchatov and has come in closer range of Ukrainian missiles and drones, following Kyiv’s daring incursion into the Kursk region at the beginning of August.
Ukraine‘s Security and Defence Council representative Andriy Kovalenko denied any attempt by Kyiv’s forces to strike the plant at the time, calling such a move “pointless”.
Operators at the Kursk Nuclear Power Station (Image: Bojidar 93 Google Maps)
However, the fact remains the KNPP remains vulnerable to a military strike – whether intentional or not – and was never designed to withstand such an attack.
Unlike Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia NPP, the Kursk plant is still operational and therefore the consequences of a direct hit on it could be devastating.
Alexander Nikitin, a nuclear advisor at the environmental Bellona Foundation, told the Russian investigative outlet Verstka that the plant’s design never accounted for the possibility of a military attack.
He called the current situation “an unprecedented emergency”, echoing warnings made by Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
A source from Russia‘s state nuclear agency Rosatom pointed out that the Kursk plant was built during the time of the Soviet Union and much of its technology and materials were old.
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There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
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Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are two Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
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