“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
JUL 08, 2024
LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Monday, (07/08/2024)
It amazes me that we aren’t seeing more financial investments news concerning the entire ‘power’ industry, and especially revelations about why the nuclear industry is, as it always has been, based upon little more than hype, propaganda, and the industry’s dreams and fictional industry hubris.
The industry won’t even discuss the availability of future fuel products and how they are mined, milled, refined and how limited the uranium market may be to provide costly U308 and who controls the refining markets. Russia controls about 83% of the entire nuclear market, by the way. A new nuclear power plant without fuel is useless, of course, but at least it is safer . . . ~llaw
Explains why investing in the nuclear power industry is profoundly stupid
Jul 8, 2024
POWER is at the forefront of the global power market, providing in-depth news and insight on the end-to-end electricity system and the ongoing energy transition. We strive to be the “go-to” resource for power professionals, offering a wealth of information on innovative business practices, sound safety measures, useful productivity enhancements, and much more.
Analyst Says Nuclear Industry Is ‘Totally Irrelevant’ in the Market for New Power Capacity
Nuclear power has consistently provided about 19% to 20% of total annual U.S. electricity generation since 1990. It provides significant amounts of electricity in many other countries as well.
According to data from The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR), a total of 414 reactors were operating in 32 countries, as of July 1, 2024. Preliminary data says China generated the second-most electricity from nuclear power in 2023 (behind the U.S.), while France came in third and had the highest percentage share of national power generation from nuclear power at 65%.
Many power industry experts and environmental activists consider nuclear power an important component in the world’s transition to carbon-free energy. Yet, Mycle Schneider, an independent international analyst on energy and nuclear policy, and coordinator, editor, and publisher of the annual WNISR, said, “in [new] capacity terms, the nuclear industry, from what is going on, on the ground, is totally irrelevant.”
Schneider was speaking as a guest on The POWER Podcast and prefaced his statement by comparing nuclear power additions to solar power additions in recent years. “Let’s look at China, because China is the only country that has been massively building nuclear power plants over the past 20 years,” he said.
“China connected one reactor to the grid in 2023—one gigawatt. In the same year, they connected, and the numbers vary, but over 200 gigawatts of solar alone. Solar power generates more electricity in China than nuclear power since 2022. And, of course, wind power generates more than nuclear power in China for a decade already,” Schneider said. Furthermore, he noted, the disparity has gone “completely unnoticed by the general public or even within the energy professionals that are in Europe or often also in North America.”
Schneider said the media often gives the impression that the nuclear industry is booming, but the facts suggest otherwise. “Over the past 20 years—2004 to 2023—104 reactors were closed down and 102 started up,” Schneider said. “But here is important that almost half, 49 of those new reactors started, were in China [where none closed], so the balance outside China is minus 51.”
Some nuclear advocates might suggest that things are changing. They might argue that small modular reactors (SMRs) or other advanced designs are poised to reinvigorate the industry. But Schneider disagrees. He noted that since the construction start of the second unit at Hinkley Point C in the UK in 2019—almost five years ago—there have been 35 nuclear project construction starts in the world. Twenty-two of those were in China and the other 13 were all implemented by the Russian nuclear industry in a few different countries. “Nothing else. Not an SMR here or an SMR there, or a large reactor here or a large reactor there by any other player,” reported Schneider.
Meanwhile, history has shown that the nuclear industry struggles to meet timeline targets. As examples, Schneider noted that on Jan. 1, 2022, 16 reactors were scheduled to come online during the following year. Only seven actually did. In 2023, nine were planned to come online, but only five made it to the grid. This demonstrates how bad the industry is at scheduling—it can’t even predict project completion at a high rate of accuracy during the final year of construction. “How precise could it possibly be if there are predictions for 2030, 2035, 2040, for reactors that don’t even have a [design] license yet?” asked Schneider.
Notably, timelines haven’t always improved on later units. Schneider said the EPR units have demonstrated a “negative learning curve.” Specifically, the first EPR units to enter commercial operation were at the Taishan site in China, which came online in 2018 and 2019. They had a shorter construction time than Olkiluoto 3 in Finland, which started construction about four years prior to Taishan but didn’t enter commercial operation until 2023. Flamanville 3 in France began construction in 2007 and hasn’t yet entered commercial operation. It could end up having a construction period even longer than Olkiluoto 3. To cap it all off, Schneider said the Hinkley Point C EPR units could be even longer than Flamanville 3.
“By the way, you can also show that through the building history of nuclear reactors in France—it’s actually a negative learning curve,” said Schneider. Furthermore, with so few reactors being constructed, learnings are limited.
Schneider noted that the vast majority of new capacity being added to the grid is from solar and wind energy. “These guys are building tens of thousands of wind turbines, and literally hundreds of millions of solar cells, so the learning effect is just absolutely stunning,” he said. “On the nuclear side, we’re talking about a handful. That’s very difficult. Very, very difficult—very challenging—to have a learning effect with so few units.”
Schneider said the nuclear discussion in general needs a “really thorough reality check.” He suggested the possibilities and feasibilities must be investigated. “Then, choices can be made on a solid basis,” he said.
Subscribed
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:
There are 6 categories, including a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives, as do ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links in each category about the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
- All Things Nuclear
- Nuclear Power
- Nuclear Power Emergencies
- Nuclear War
- Nuclear War Threats
- Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Monday, (07/08/2024)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
Analyst Says Nuclear Industry Is ‘Totally Irrelevant’ in the Market for New Power Capacity
POWER Magazine
Some nuclear advocates might suggest that things are changing. … Twenty-two of those were in China and the other 13 were all implemented by the …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
No emergency after Duke Energy nuclear plant sirens go off, Wake County officials say
ABC11
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — Wake County reported emergency sirens went off at the Duke Energy Harris Nuclear Plant in southwest Raleigh Monday morning …
No emergency after sirens sound at Harris Nuclear Plant, Wake County officials say
CBS 17
(WNCN) — Wake County officials want the public to know there is no emergency, despite sirens going off around the Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant …
Monday AM siren at Harris Nuclear Plant is no emergency, Wake County says
The News & Observer
Wake County officials said there was no emergency tied to to the sounding of alert sirens Monday morning at Duke Energy’s Shearon Harris Nuclear …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
No emergency after sirens sound at Harris Nuclear Plant, Wake County officials say
CBS 17
(WNCN) — Wake County officials want the public to know there is no emergency, despite sirens going off around the Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant …
No emergency after Duke Energy nuclear plant sirens go off, Wake County officials say
ABC11
(WTVD) — Wake County reported emergency sirens went off at the Duke Energy Harris Nuclear Plant in southwest Raleigh Monday morning. There is no …
No emergency after sirens sound at NC nuclear power plant – WFMY News 2
WFMY News 2
— Sirens went off at a nuclear power plant in Holly Springs, NC early Monday morning, but officials want the public to know there is no emergency.
Nuclear War
NEWS
Putin: No need for nuclear weapons in Ukraine; keeps option open – VOA News
VOA News
“Reliance on nuclear threats and signals is an enduring trend in Russia’s activities amid the war in Ukraine,” said Heather Williams, senior …
The US and Europe would be safer with Ukraine in NATO. Our war games showed why.
Atlantic Council
Both sides had strong incentives to avoid a direct NATO-Russia conflict—one that could result in nuclear war. This finding corresponds with …
Ukraine-Russia war live: Kyiv children’s hospital hit during daytime missile attack | The Independent
The Independent
The hospital was hit amid a Russian barrage that targeted five Ukrainian cities and killed at least 36 people while injuring almost 130 others.
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
US Mayors for Peace Call for Dialogue in a Time of Nuclear Danger – ScheerPost
ScheerPost
The Russian war on Ukraine, with its attendant nuclear threats, and an intensifying array of antagonisms among nuclear-armed governments in …
Putin warns NATO: Don’t provide too much military support for Ukraine | Jefferson City News Tribune
Jefferson City News Tribune
“Reliance on nuclear threats and signals is an enduring trend in Russia’s activities amid the war in Ukraine,” said Heather Williams, senior …
AP: Ukraine war nears most dangerous phase, Putin makes alarming statement – ФАКТИ.БГ
ФАКТИ.БГ
Nuclear threats are one means of signaling the Kremlin’s commitment to winning the war in the hope of deterring Western intervention. Putin said