“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw
Apr 02, 2025
(See credits to 2025 Doomsday Clock, courtesy of NPR via“The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists”)
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic timepiece, created by scientists to show how close humanity is to catastrophe – represented by “midnight”. In January 2025, it was set to 89 seconds, the closest it has ever been to that point of global disaster. Among the various threats that could lead to such an event, nuclear terrorism is considered one of the dangerous modern challenges. ~ IARI
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY and the GLOBAL RISKS & CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW
In My Opinion:
I have often mentioned the increasing threat of nuclear terrorism, but as nuclear proliferation expands, both for war and nuclear power, dramatically increasing around the globe, the threat grows more and more likely to become an international concern — perhaps even comparable to the threat from any or all of the nine nations combined that already have an armageddon-worth of nuclear weapons of mass destruction at their disposal.
There are also serious concerns about both Nuclear Power Plants and Nuclear Waste Storage beyond the scope of this article that are subject to terrorism attacks that are ready-made for the kind of nuclear warfare discussed here. Some of it is already available simply by occupation and control— that being the projected increase in nuclear power plants, especially from the predicted proliferation of Small Nuclear Power Reactors (SMRs) and the plethora of unprotected canisters and barrels of nuclear waste that resides in open areas adjacent to existing nuclear power plants in the United States, Canada, and other nations who have never developed underground disposal facilities for nuclear waste during years of basically unsecured open-air pools of massive collections of massive nuclear waste. This is a problem that will only increase as new nuclear power plant facilities, large and small, come online to satisfy our human need for electrical energy.
We have, through pure greed and ignorance, most likely created our own demise, taking along most all other life with us, and the longer we continue along this road to oblivion, the less likely we are to ever unite in a one-lane global detour of unity to rid ourselves of “All Things Nuclear” — a task that is already reaching the limits of our capability to recover from . . . ~llaw
89 seconds to midnight: could nuclear terrorism be the CBRN event that triggers humanity’s breaking point?
by Daria Alexe
2 Aprile 20252 Aprile 2025
18 mins read
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic timepiece, created by scientists to show how close humanity is to catastrophe – represented by “midnight”. In January 2025, it was set to 89 seconds, the closest it has ever been to that point of global disaster. Among the various threats that could lead to such an event, nuclear terrorism is considered one of the dangerous modern challenges.
The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 and measures the likelihood of a human-made global disaster. As the Clock moves closer to midnight, the threat of nuclear terrorism looms as one of the most catastrophic risks facing global security. Among all Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats, nuclear terrorism stands out for its potential to cause mass casualties, long-term environmental devastation, and unprecedented geopolitical destabilization. Despite international efforts to secure nuclear materials and dismantle illicit networks, non-state actors continue to seek access to fissile material and the expertise needed to create a crude nuclear device or deploy a radiological dispersal weapon.
The viability of nuclear terrorism
The concept of nuclear terrorism is not merely theoretical: intelligence agencies and security experts have repeatedly warned about its feasibility. The potential for terrorist organizations or rogue actors to exploit vulnerabilities in nuclear security has been a persistent concern for decades. The risk is exacerbated by the ongoing proliferation of nuclear knowledge, the expansion of illicit nuclear markets, and the failure of some States to maintain rigorous oversight of their nuclear stockpiles. While constructing a full-scale nuclear weapon remains an insurmountable challenge for most non-state actors due to the complexities of uranium enrichment and plutonium processing, the acquisition of stolen or illicitly traded fissile material is a real concern. The black market for nuclear materials continues to thrive in some parts of the world, where corruption and weak regulatory oversight enable traffickers to move radioactive substances across borders undetected.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s raised alarms about the security of nuclear stockpiles, as economic instability and political fragmentation led to lapses in nuclear safeguards. The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program was designed to address these vulnerabilities by securing and dismantling former Soviet nuclear arsenals, yet concerns persist over unaccounted-for materials. Reports of nuclear smuggling incidents, some involving highly enriched uranium and plutonium, continue to surface, and this underscores the difficulty of completely eliminating the risk of nuclear theft. While many documented cases of illicit nuclear trade have been thwarted, it remains unclear how many transactions go undetected, raising the possibility that nuclear materials may already be in the hands of actors with malicious intent.
Radiological dispersal devices (RDDs), or “dirty bombs,” present a more accessible and plausible nuclear terrorism threat. These devices use conventional explosives to scatter radioactive material, causing widespread panic, economic disruption, and long-term health consequences. Unlike nuclear weapons, RDDs do not require weapons-grade material, making them an attractive option for terrorist organizations aiming to instill fear and cripple infrastructure without requiring state-level nuclear capabilities. Hospitals, industrial sites, and research facilities often store radiological materials such as Cesium-137 and Cobalt-60, which, if improperly secured, could be exploited for use in an RDD. The effects of a dirty bomb attack would likely be more psychological than physical, as the radiation levels dispersed may not cause immediate mass casualties, but the fear and uncertainty generated by such an event could be enough to cause social and economic paralysis.
The potential for cyber-enabled nuclear terrorism also introduces a new dimension to the threat landscape. Hackers targeting nuclear facilities or material storage sites could compromise security systems, disable safeguards, or even facilitate unauthorized access to radiological substances. As nuclear infrastructure becomes increasingly reliant on digital systems, the risk of cyberattacks disrupting nuclear security measures grows. The combination of traditional threats, such as physical theft or smuggling, and emerging risks like cyber-enabled breaches, makes the challenge of preventing nuclear terrorism more complex than ever before.
The expanding threat landscape: terrorist groups and illicit networks
While there has been no successful large-scale nuclear terrorist attack, intelligence has consistently pointed to active attempts by extremist organizations to acquire nuclear materials. Al-Qaeda’s leadership, including Osama bin Laden, openly sought nuclear weapons during the 1990s and early 2000s, attempting to procure uranium through intermediaries in Sudan and other regions. The proliferation network run by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khanexposed vulnerabilities in nuclear security, demonstrating how sensitive technology and materials could be sold illicitly.
ISIS also explored nuclear options, with European intelligence agencies uncovering surveillance operations targeting nuclear facilities in Belgium in 2016. Documents seized from ISIS hideouts in Syria indicated ambitions to construct a radiological dispersal device, using radioactive materials available in hospitals or industrial sites. The potential for terrorist groups to exploit unprotected radiological sources remains a significant concern, as seen in previous incidents of radioactive material theft in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The Russian black market for nuclear material has long been a focal point for counterproliferation efforts. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, multiple cases of nuclear smuggling have been uncovered, with intercepted shipments of uranium and plutonium often traced back to poorly secured Soviet-era stockpiles. Moldovan authorities disrupted a smuggling ring in 2011 that sought to sell weapons-grade uranium to a suspected terrorist organization, while similar operations in Georgia and Kazakhstan highlight persistent gaps in nuclear security.
Regional case studies: the most vulnerable hotspots
Certain regions are particularly vulnerable to nuclear terrorism due to a combination of weak governance, active extremist groups, and the presence of nuclear materials or infrastructure. South Asia remains one of the most critical flashpoints. Pakistan, with its expanding nuclear arsenal and history of internal instability, faces persistent concerns over the security of its nuclear sites. The country has long battled terrorist organizations such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and al-Qaeda, which have carried out high-profile attacks against military installations. The potential for insider threats within Pakistan’s security apparatus has raised alarms among global intelligence agencies, as individuals sympathetic to extremist causes could facilitate access to sensitive nuclear materials.
In the Middle East, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its network of proxy groups add another dimension to the nuclear terrorism threat. While Iran has officially agreed to non-proliferation commitments, concerns remain about the potential diversion of nuclear materials to allied militant groups, such as Hezbollah. The risk is not necessarily a direct transfer of a nuclear weapon, but rather the possibility that radiological substances from civilian nuclear programs could be repurposed for a dirty bomb attack by Iran-backed factions.
Sub-Saharan Africa, although not traditionally considered a nuclear hotspot, has been linked to nuclear proliferation networks in the past. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has uranium deposits that were historically exploited for nuclear programs, and weak governance structures could make these materials susceptible to exploitation. Additionally, terrorist organizations operating in the Sahel, such as Boko Haram and ISIS-affiliated groups, have shown increasing sophistication in their operations, raising concerns about their ability to engage in nuclear smuggling networks.
The consequences of a nuclear terrorism event
The detonation of a nuclear device or dirty bomb in a major metropolitan area would trigger an unparalleled security crisis. A nuclear explosion, even a crude one, would result in mass casualties, large-scale infrastructure destruction, and environmental contamination that could render entire cities uninhabitable. The economic consequences would be catastrophic, with financial markets collapsing due to uncertainty and fear. Governments would be forced to implement emergency measures, likely including martial law, while civil liberties could be severely curtailed under the pretext of national security.
Beyond the immediate devastation, the geopolitical ramifications of nuclear terrorism could lead to full-scale conflicts. If the attack were linked to a State sponsor, retaliatory military actions could escalate, triggering wars that redraw global alliances. Even in cases where attribution remains unclear, nations may act preemptively based on intelligence, leading to diplomatic crises and increased global instability. The psychological impact of a nuclear terrorism event would be profound, creating a climate of fear that could reshape urban security policies, increase surveillance measures, and further erode trust in institutions meant to protect civilian populations.
The environmental consequences of a nuclear terrorism event would extend far beyond the initial impact site. A nuclear detonation or even a dirty bomb attack would contaminate air, soil, and water sources, potentially making large areas uninhabitable for generations. The radiation exposure could lead to long-term health effects, including increased cancer rates, genetic mutations, and other chronic illnesses among the affected populations. Clean-up efforts would require extensive financial resources and advanced technological solutions, placing immense pressure on both national governments and international organizations.
A nuclear terrorism event would also have far-reaching socio-political effects. The global economy would face severe disruptions as trade routes are affected, investment confidence plummets, and governments redirect resources toward crisis management and defense. The imposition of travel restrictions, emergency laws, and heightened border security measures could reshape international relations, leading to increased suspicion between States. Societies might experience a rise in xenophobia and discrimination, as fear-driven policies target specific ethnic or religious groups under the guise of national security.
The humanitarian impact would be equally devastating. Mass evacuations from affected areas would create a large-scale refugee crisis, overwhelming neighboring regions and straining humanitarian aid resources. Public health systems would struggle to cope with the influx of radiation-related illnesses, while psychological trauma among survivors would require long-term mental health interventions. The combination of physical, economic, and psychological destruction could set back global development for decades, highlighting the unprecedented challenge of recovering from such an attack.
Best-case scenario: preventing the unthinkable
In the most optimistic outlook, the combined efforts of intelligence agencies, counterproliferation initiatives, and technological advancements in nuclear security would prevent nuclear terrorism from becoming a reality. Governments would maintain strict control over fissile materials, ensuring that all nuclear sources – both civilian and military – are accounted for and protected against theft or diversion. International organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) would continue strengthening cooperative frameworks, ensuring that states remain committed to non-proliferation and counterterrorism strategies. Advanced detection technologies, including artificial intelligence-driven monitoring systems and enhanced border security, would make it increasingly difficult for illicit nuclear materials to be trafficked undetected. Cybersecurity measures protecting nuclear facilities would also be reinforced, preventing hacking attempts that could compromise reactor safety or allow unauthorized access to sensitive materials. The role of diplomatic engagement in reducing nuclear risks would be paramount, with major powers working collectively to prevent State-sponsored proliferation and reduce regional nuclear tensions.
Worst-case scenario: the breaking point
In the most catastrophic scenario, a terrorist organization succeeds in detonating a nuclear device in a densely populated city. Whether through an improvised nuclear weapon or a radiological dispersal device, the attack would result in thousands, if not millions, of deaths, with entire urban centers rendered uninhabitable due to radiation exposure. The global economy would enter a state of shock, with investors withdrawing from markets, trade routes shutting down, and international financial institutions struggling to manage the fallout.
The immediate political response would likely involve military retaliation, with States launching strikes based on intelligence, accurate or not, against perceived sponsors of the attack. This could ignite new wars, particularly in regions already plagued by instability. Nuclear-armed States might escalate their postures, increasing the risk of further nuclear exchanges. The erosion of civil liberties would accelerate, with governments enacting emergency laws that could alter democratic institutions. Surveillance States would expand, justifying mass data collection and aggressive counterterrorism operations in response to the attack. In addition, the event would likely embolden other terrorist groups, proving that nuclear terrorism is not just a hypothetical scenario but a reality that can be replicated. Rogue states and transnational criminal networks would be more incentivized to participate in nuclear smuggling, while black-market networks could flourish in conflict zones. International organizations would struggle to maintain control, as the loss of public trust in security institutions could drive nations toward isolationist policies, reducing cooperation in global counterterrorism efforts.
A realistic projection: persistent but manageable threats
A more plausible scenario falls between these two extremes. While intelligence and counterterrorism operations have so far prevented nuclear terrorism from materializing, the persistent threat demands continuous vigilance. The world is unlikely to see a full-scale nuclear detonation by a terrorist group in the near future, but the risk of an RDD attack or an attempted smuggling operation remains high. As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, the potential for State actors to indirectly facilitate nuclear proliferation cannot be ruled out.
To mitigate these risks, nations must strengthen their nuclear security strategies, investing in modern detection systems, expanding international intelligence-sharing initiatives, and closing the regulatory gaps that allow illicit nuclear trade to persist. The continued existence of unsecured radiological materials, the rise of cyber threats to nuclear infrastructure, and the shifting alliances in global politics require a renewed commitment to counterproliferation measures that adapt to emerging challenges.
Conclusion
Nuclear terrorism remains one of the most dangerous and least predictable threats in modern global security. The combination of non-state actors, potential State complicity, and vulnerabilities in nuclear material security creates a volatile mix that cannot be ignored. While efforts to counter nuclear terrorism have made significant strides, the risk persists, necessitating continued international cooperation, technological innovation, and intelligence sharing. As the world stands 89 seconds to midnight, the question is not whether nuclear terrorism is possible, but whether the global community is prepared to prevent it before it’s too late.
- Daria Alexe
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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS DIGEST, Wednesday, (04/02/2025)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
A New Age for Nuclear Energy, with Daniel Poneman – Resources Magazine
Resources Magazine
We all know about electric vehicles and industrial processes. Companies have been looking to find non-carbon-emitting ways to make steel, like Nucor …
The Really Big Show: Should Canada build nuclear weapons? – YouTube
YouTube
The Really Big Show: Should Canada build nuclear weapons? 53 views … Brit Reacts to 25 Myths About America People Believe Are True! L3WG …
Republicans Plan To Go ‘Nuclear‘ On Passing Trillion Dollar Tax Cuts – Yahoo News
Yahoo News
But the Alaska Republican seemed skeptical about how this would all work, saying her party’s strategy is “not fully jelled” just yet. More in …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
Nuclear power is officially a clean energy source in Colorado. Not everyone is pleased.
The Colorado Sun
Nuclear power — an innovative source of fossil-free power potential, or a radioactive risk that threatens public health and the environment, …
Restarting the Palisades Nuclear Plant Is the Best Path Forward – The Breakthrough Institute
The Breakthrough Institute
The NRC should pursue the externalities of such alternatives with the same rigor it undertakes when evaluating nuclear power plants. The NRC’s …
Is a nuclear renaissance coming? – High Country News
High Country News
Colorado lawmakers seek to classify nuclear power as “clean energy” to expedite replacing retired coal plants with reactors. • Mining firms hope to …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Cressbrook Team Engages Early With Local Emergency Services – Mirage News
Mirage News
… emergency services as plans continue for construction on the $270 million project. … Rethinking Nuclear Power: Evolution & Future of Nuclear Energy …
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Trump seriously considering Iran’s offer of indirect nuclear talks
Axios
… threat Sunday to bomb Iran if a deal isn’t reached. On Monday, Khamenei fired back and said that while he doesn’t believe the U.S. would attack …
Trump is about to bomb Iran: Top Israeli sources reveal planned attack on nuclear sites … – Daily Mail
Daily Mail
Threats of military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have been made before. But there’s now clear evidence that, this time, both …
89 seconds to midnight: could nuclear terrorism be the CBRN event that triggers humanity’s … – IARI
IARI
As the Clock moves closer to midnight, the threat of nuclear terrorism looms as one of the most catastrophic risks facing global security. Among all …
Nuclear War
NEWS
Trump seriously considering Iran’s offer of indirect nuclear talks
Axios
On Monday, Khamenei fired back and said that while he doesn’t believe the U.S. would attack Iran “they will certainly receive a heavy blow in return” …
Six B-2 bombers deployed at Diego Garcia I Iran Warns for Nuclear War? | WION – YouTube
YouTube
The United States has deployed six B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, a strategic island in the Indian Ocean, amid rising tensions with Iran.
Russia Threatens ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ Over US Strikes On Iran – YouTube
YouTube
US-Iran War: Tehran To Fire First Shot? Pre-emptive Attack Anytime … ‘Attack Iran, Face Nuclear…’: Khamenei’s Fiery Warning To Trump After …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
The activity of the Great Yellowstone Volcano is shifting Northeast. – Yourweather.co.uk
Yourweather.co.uk
The Yellowstone Caldera is a volcanic caldera and supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park, located in the western United States; it has sometimes …
Tourists flee as volcanic eruption shuts down Iceland’s Blue Lagoon – MSN
MSN
Scientists Detect Magma Movement Below Yellowstone Caldera. Weather-Fox. Scientists Detect Magma Movement Below Yellowstone Caldera. 2. Grand Cany