LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #573, Monday, (03/18/2024)

“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”

LLOYD A. WILLIAMS-PENDERGRAFT

MAR 18, 2024

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“Baker Day” Blast at Bikini Island

The first and only nuclear weapons ever used killed over 100,000 people and caused long-term health, psychological, economic and environmental damage | National Archive/Newsmakers

LLAW’s CONCERNS & COMMENTS, Monday, (03/18/2024)

The following article from Politico.eu deals with the same topic as I posted about yesterday evening — and that is the problem with our “Leaders”, and though this discussion mentions only 5, there are 9 of them, who could easily begin WWIII, and given enough time there will soon be more. They must all be dethroned before one of them pushes the nuclear button.

As I said yesterday, and I’ll say it again today, there is just one way to get rid of our nuclear armed “leaders”, and that is via protests and demands of you and me and the rest of the subordinate human population around the globe by whatever means are required. I believe that if we unite with a peaceful single intent internationally, we can make it happen, but time is of the essence . . . “The voice and the pen can be mightier than the bomb.” (line borrowed and upgraded from novelist Edward Bulwer-Lytton)

However, the remedies suggested in this article, “more diplomacy and resilience-based solutions”, are far too weak to work. We have been trying to do that for nigh on 80 years, and have failed with every attempt. The only solution is to, as I have subtitled all of my 573 Posts in 573 consecutive days, “End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”. That requires removing the insanity of egomaniacal power-crazy “leaders” of every country that has nuclear anything, including nuclear power plants or even visions of grandeur in their envious eyes. ~llaw

POLITICO.eu

As ‘Oppenheimer’ wins big, we should worry about lowering of nuclear thresholds

Just as Oppenheimer challenged Truman on U.S. nuclear strategy, we too must challenge our leaders’ attachment to nukes.

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OPINION

MARCH 18, 2024 4:00 AM CET

BY SOPHIE-JADE TAYLOR AND GRAHAM STACEY

Sophie-Jade Taylor is a senior network development and communications manager at the European Leadership Network nonprofit. Retired Air Marshall Sir Graham Stacey is a senior consulting fellow at the European Leadership Network.

Last summer, director Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” captivated the global public, making history as the highest ever grossing biopic. And having already won big at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, the film closed awards season by sweeping the Oscars last weekend.

The film brought fresh awareness of the unique, destructive power that J. Robert Oppenheimer’s creation unleashed. The first and only nuclear weapons ever used — the “Little Boy” dropped on Hiroshima and the “Fat Man” on Nagasaki — packed the equivalent of 15,000 and 21,000 tons of TNT respectively, killing over 100,000 people and causing long-term health, psychological, economic and environmental damage.

By comparison, the world’s most powerful nukes today yield over 1.2 megatons of TNT — 60 times more than Oppenheimer’s bombs.

And much like Oppenheimer, General Leslie Groves and then U.S. President Harry S. Truman, today’s leaders once again find themselves facing huge moral and strategic choices at the dawn of a new technological age. The full weight of nuclear devastation lies in the hands of just a select few. Their decisions have profound implications for humanity — and this shouldn’t be left to chance. 

Recognizing the unimaginable horror a modern nuclear conflict would unleash, as recently as January 2022, all five leaders of the nuclear weapons states reaffirmed that a nuclear war couldn’t be won and must never be fought.

All five leaders of the nuclear weapons states recently reaffirmed that a nuclear war couldn’t be won and must never be fought | Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

Yet, we have been witnessing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s irresponsible nuclear saber-rattling around Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There have been worrying reports of rock-bottom thresholds for nuclear use — with enemy incursion into territory, the destruction of strategic weapons delivery systems, and even conventional weapons use deemed as posing an existential threat to Russian statehood.

And though Moscow outwardly rejects the policy, such ambiguity seemingly points toward communicating “first strike” capabilities, which rightly should be condemned and carefully assessed.

On the other hand, China continues to push states for political commitments toward the universalization of a No First Use Policy, while also furthering the development of its own arsenal under a worrying lack of transparency — a dilemma that has added complexity to an already intricate and perilous geopolitical chessboard.

Meanwhile, in the West — seemingly without much public discussion or comment — we’ve seen a worrying trend in declarations that states could use nuclear weapons to deter “non-nuclear threats,” again lowering the so-called nuclear threshold in an attempt to provide a quick fix to nuanced challenges.

At this very critical moment, “Oppenheimer” has brought discussions of nuclear weapons back into the public arena. And while the attention will undoubtedly recede, ongoing public engagement on these issues must not. Civic engagement shapes policymaking, and at a time of rising nuclear risks and growing temptation for states to become more reliant on their nuclear weapons, the public deserves a better understanding of when and why a catastrophic weapon may be deployed.

For example, in 2021, the British government stated that while it wouldn’t use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon state, it remained open to reviewing its policy should any threat from “emerging technologies” with “comparable impact” make nuclear weapon use necessary. Similarly, in 2022, the U.S. declared that the aim of its nuclear arsenal was to deter both nuclear and non-nuclear “strategic-level attacks.” Problematically, however, neither the U.K. nor the U.S. have detailed what “comparable impact” or “strategic-level attack” may mean.

These policies not only lower the nuclear-use threshold and increase global nuclear risks, but they may not even be feasible, given most contemporary threats against states now sit outside the military realm.

While it’s near impossible for a nuclear strike to go undetected, the same isn’t true for emerging technologies such as AI and autonomous systems. By their very design, these technologies are largely democratized and untied to a single government. For instance, the challenge of attribution in cyber is well-documented, and while cyber-attacks have been linked to state-sponsored hacking groups, these groups couldn’t be easily deterred by the threat of a nuclear strike.

As a 2021 U.K. parliamentary report on risk assessment and mitigation noted, today’s security risks do not respect national borders; rather, they have international impact and require global responses. In this new risk environment, governments must focus on developing their national resilience and preparedness to mitigate threats — not just use the blunt and horrific instrument of nuclear weapons as a cure-all.

Increasing the already harrowing role of nuclear weapons in foreign policy undermines the moral and legal position of nuclear weapons states. The logic and evidence behind the current U.K. and U.S. policies of relying on nuclear weapons as a panacea must be subject to greater public and parliamentary scrutiny — as should be the case with open democracies who say they have transparent nuclear policies.

Amid rising global volatility and technological uncertainty, it’s imperative for states to explore non-nuclear solutions that emphasize international cooperation, diplomacy and societal resilience. And there’s an opportunity here for the U.K. and the U.S. to lead the way in international law and treaties that respond to non-nuclear strategic threats more effectively.

Instead of resorting to old playbooks, both policymakers and the public must appreciate that emerging technologies require a new mindset in their management and new legal constructs to regulate their proliferation, development and control. Recent international efforts like last November’s Bletchley AI Safety Summit and the agreement to begin a dialogue on AI risks by U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are important first steps. But much more needs to be done.

Just as Oppenheimer, haunted by his role in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, challenged Truman on U.S. nuclear strategy, we too must challenge our leaders’ continued attachment to nukes — weapons that can only destroy — and push toward more diplomacy and resilience-based solutions to today’s complex challenges.


ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:

There are 6 categories, including a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives, as do ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links in each category about the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

  1. All Things Nuclear
  2. Nuclear Power
  3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
  4. Nuclear War
  5. Nuclear War Threats
  6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in tonight’s Post.)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS (03/18/2024):

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

US unveils nuclear stealth bomber as tensions with China rise – Yahoo Movies Canada

Yahoo Movies Canada

“The Kingdom has been all a flutter about the seeming disappearance of Kate Middleton,” Colbert said. “Well now, internet sleuths are guessing that …

Seoul says North Korea fires missile toward the North’s eastern waters – The Portland Press Herald

The Portland Press Herald

… Things to Do · All Things to Do · All PPH Events … Many of the tests involved nuclear-capable missiles designed to attack South Korea and the mainland …

Yulia Navalnaya joins ‘Noon against Putin’ protest against sham election – YouTube

YouTube

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was cheered as she arrived at a “Noon against Putin” protest in Berlin.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Explainer: What is the current state of Europe’s nuclear energy production? | Euronews

Euronews.com

France is holding on to its title as Europe’s top nuclear energy producer. After two decades going back and forth, Germany has finally definitely …

Work under way on Akkuyu decommissioning costs – World Nuclear News

World Nuclear News

TVEL has entered an agreement “to develop cost plans for the decommissioning” of the four units being built at Turkey’s Akkuyu nuclear power plant …

how do we tell future generations about highly radioactive nuclear waste repositories?

The Conversation

Yet nuclear energy production requires managing what is known as “spent” nuclear fuel where major problems arise about how best to safeguard these …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Lithuania holds drills for hypothetical nuclear accident with sirens and emergency alerts

LRT

Lithuania is holding a national civil protection exercise on Monday to simulate an accident at the Astravyets nuclear power plant in Belarus, as …

Aussie kids learn what to pack in an emergency and how to prepare emotionally for disaster

ABC

A young woman is handcuffed by NSW police during her arrest. 4. Chief scientist backs renewables, calls nuclear power ‘expensive’.

Approximate dates for referendum in Kazakhstan on nuclear power plants declared

kaztag.kz

“The referendum on the nuclear power plant could take place in late summer or autumn 2024,” a source familiar with the situation told KazTAG. On May …

Nuclear War

NEWS

As ‘Oppenheimer’ wins big, we should worry about lowering of nuclear thresholds

POLITICO.eu

Just as Oppenheimer challenged Truman on U.S. nuclear strategy, we too must challenge our leaders’ attachment to nukes.

Putin warns the West a Russia-NATO conflict is just one step from World War Three | Reuters

Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Monday that a direct conflict between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance would …

UN Chief Warns Against ‘Sequel To ‘Oppenheimer” | Barron’s

Barron’s

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked Oscar-winning film “Oppenheimer” on Monday as he warned that the world faced the highest risk of …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

nuclear war: UN chief warns against ‘sequel to ‘Oppenheimer” – The Economic Times

The Economic Times

… nuclear warfare to its highest point in decades,” he said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons …

As ‘Oppenheimer’ wins big, we should worry about lowering of nuclear thresholds

POLITICO.eu

All five leaders of the nuclear weapons states recently reaffirmed that a nuclear war … nuclear strategic threats more effectively. … War War in …

Disarmament Now Only Viable Path to Vanquish Senseless, Suicidal Shadow of Nuclear …

Meetings Coverage and Press Releases – the United Nations

Threats to use nuclear weapons in any capacity are unacceptable. Third — nuclear weapon States must re-affirm moratoria on nuclear testing. This …

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