“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
Sep 21, 2024
LLAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Saturday, (09/21/2024)
Although the big news today (and yesterday) is about the possibility of the long shut-down Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident that caused a partial meltdown of one of the nuclear reactors and possibly providing nuclear power to Microsoft.
The clean-up work at that reactor (TMI – 2) is still ongoing since the accident back in 1979 — which caused me to rethink my future and exit the nuclear business soon thereafter — and clean-up/demolition is not expected to be completed until 2052. Unit 1 is being considered to possibly be re-born to service Microsoft’s AI power demands in the not-too-distant future, although the total demolishing of both Units has long been scheduled for 2079.
But the more immediate and important news concerns the Russia/Ukraine war that could soon boil over into the use of missile driven nuclear weapons in addition to the nuclear power plants in both countries that are playing important extremely dangerous nuclear war roles such that those plants are essentially doubling as stationary nuclear-weapons themselves. And with the United States, a NATO member, now re-united and reinforced by the rest of NATO, including, of course, Ukraine, seem unsure of how to proceed in a strategic war that would win the war. Russia, however, is tempted and threatening to deploy nuclear weapons to defend themselves against possible conventional missiles provided by America.
That is why I have been saying for consecutive days now that the USA is increasingly being crushed between a ‘rock and a hard place’. This war has been mishandled by both NATO and the U.S. and setting the revised strategy is going to be extremely dangerous and difficult. Following is the latest from ”Common Dreams” . . . ~llaw
Ukrainian rescuers of the State Emergency Service and firefighters continue to extinguish the forest fire after a Russian bomb explosion in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine on September 17, 2024.
(Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
A Nuclear War in Ukraine Is a Distinct Possibility
An interview with Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen.
Sep 21, 2024 Common Dreams
15
The war in Ukraine has been going on for 2.5 years with no end on sight. Not only that, but we are now close to a nuclear war, according to the Norwegian scholar Glenn Diesen who predicted in November 2021 that “war was becoming increasingly unavoidable” as NATO was escalating tensions with Russia by strengthening its ties with Ukraine. Indeed, as Diesen argues in the interview that follows, NATO provoked Russia and sabotaged all peace negotiations, using Ukraine as a proxy to a geopolitical chessboard. Diesen is professor of political science at the University of South-Eastern Norway and author of scores of academic articles and books, including, most recently, The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order(2024).
C. J. Polychroniou: On February 22, 2022, in a move that few had anticipated, Russia invaded Ukraine by launching a simultaneous ground and air attack on several fronts. The war hasn’t gone at all as Moscow had intended and it rages on as neither side is seriously considering an end to the fighting. Yet, the invasion is in many ways a continuation of a territorial conflict between Russia and Ukraine that goes back to 2014. What lies behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict? How did we arrive at this dangerous juncture that is now dragging NATO into the conflict?
Glenn Diesen: I predicted the war in an article in November 2021, in which I argued war was becoming “unavoidable” as NATO continued to escalate while rejecting any peaceful settlement. This should have been evident to everyone if we had an honest discussion about what had been happening.
NATO was always part of this conflict, and it did not start as a territorial conflict. The conflict began with the Western-backed coup in Ukraine in February 2014, which was seen as a precursor to NATO expansion and the eventual eviction of Russia from its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. As the New York Times has confirmed, on the first day after the coup, the new Ukrainian government hand-picked by Washington established a partnership with the CIA and MI6 for a covert war against Russia. It is important to remember that Russia had not laid any claims to Crimea before seizing it in the referendum in March 2014. This is not a commentary on legality or legitimacy, merely the fact that Russia’s actions were a reaction to the coup.
We are very close to a nuclear war, and we are deluding ourselves by suggesting we are merely helping Ukraine defend itself.
A proxy war broke out in which NATO backed the government it installed in Kiev and Russia backed the Donbas rebels who refused to recognize the legitimacy of the coup and resisted the de-russification and purge of the language, political opposition, culture, and the church. The Minsk-2 peace agreement of 2015 laid the foundation for resolving the conflict, but this was merely treated as a deception to buy time and build a large Ukrainian army as confirmed by the Germans, French and authorities in Kiev. After 7 years of Ukraine refusing to implement the Minsk agreement and NATO’s refusing to give Russia any security guarantees for NATO’s military infrastructure that moved into Ukraine—Russia invaded in February 2022.
It is correct that the war has not gone as Moscow expected. Russia thought it could impose a peace but was taken by surprise when the U.S. and U.K. preferred war. When Russia sent in its military, the small size and conduct of the invading forces indicated that the purpose was merely to pressure Ukraine to accept a peace agreement on Russian terms. Ukraine and Russia were close to an agreement in Istanbul, although it was sabotaged by the U.S. and U.K. as they saw an opportunity to fight Russia with Ukrainians.
The nature of the war changed fundamentally as it became a war of attrition. Russia withdrew to more defensible front lines, began mobilizing its troops and sourcing the required weapons for a long-term war to defeat the NATO-built army in Ukraine. After 2.5 years of war, this has become a territorial conflict that makes it impossible to resolve in a manner that would be acceptable to all sides. As NATO refuses to accept losing its decade-long proxy war in Ukraine, it must continue to escalate and thus get more directly involved in the war. We are now at the brink of a direct NATO-Russia War.
Did NATO provoke Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Even if so, didn’t Moscow have any other options other than to resort to the use of military force?
NATO provoked the invasion and sabotaged all paths to peace. The NATO countries affirmed on several occasions that the UN-approved Minsk agreement was the only path to a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, yet then admitted that it was merely a ruse to militarize Ukraine. This convinced the Russians that NATO was pursuing a military solution to the conflict in Ukraine that would also involve an invasion of Crimea. As argued by a top advisor to former French president Sarkozy, the U.S.-Ukrainian strategic agreement of November 2021 convinced Russia it had to attack or be attacked.
Russia considered NATO in Ukraine to be an existential threat, and NATO refused to give Russia any security guarantees to mitigate these security concerns. The former U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, argued during the Biden-Putin discussions that no agreements should be made with Russia as “success is confrontation.” This war is a great tragedy as it has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians and Russians, made Europe weaker and more dependent, and taken the world to the brink of nuclear war. By failing to admit NATO’s central role in provoking this war, we also prevent ourselves from recognizing possible political solutions.
Russia and Ukraine were close to war-ending agreements in April of 2022, but apparently certain western leaders convinced Ukrainian president Zelensky to back down from such a deal. Is Ukraine a US pawn on a geo-political chessboard?
Zelensky confirmed on the first day after the Russian invasion that Moscow had contacted Kiev to discuss a peace agreement based on restoring Ukraine’s neutrality. On the third day after the invasion, Russia and Ukraine agreed to start negotiations. Yet, the American spokesperson suggested the US could not support such negotiations. When the negotiations nonetheless began, Boris Johnson was sent to Kiev to sabotage them. Johnson later wrote an op-ed warning against a bad peace. The Ukrainian negotiators and the Israeli and Turkish mediators all confirmed that Russia was willing to pull back its troops and compromise on almost everything if Ukraine would restore its neutrality to end NATO expansionism. The mediators also confirmed that the US and UK saw an opportunity to bleed Russia and thus weaken a strategic rival by fighting with Ukrainians. The US and UK told Ukraine they would not support a peace agreement based on neutrality, but NATO would supply all the weapons Ukraine would need if Ukraine pulled out of the negotiations and chose war instead. Interviews with American and British leaders made it clear that the only acceptable outcome for the war was regime change in Moscow, while other political leaders began to speak about breaking up Russia into many smaller countries.
Yes, I believe that Ukraine is a pawn on the geopolitical chessboard. Why do we not listen to all the American political and military leaders who describe this as a good war and an opportunity to weaken Russia without using American soldiers?
What does Russia want from Ukraine?
Russia demands peace based on the Istanbul+ formula. The Istanbul agreement of early 2022 involved Russia retreating from the territory it seized since February 2022 in return for Ukraine restoring its neutrality. However, after 2.5 years of fighting, the war has also evolved into a territorial conflict. Russia therefore demands that Ukraine also recognizes Russian sovereignty over the territories it annexed.
Russia will not accept a ceasefire that merely freezes the front lines, because this could become another Minsk agreement that merely buys time for NATO to re-arm Ukraine to fight Russia another day. Moscow therefore demands a political settlement to the conflict based on neutrality and territorial concessions. In the absence of such an agreement and continued threats by NATO to expand after the war is over, Russia will likely also annex Kharkov, Dnipro, Nikolaev, and Odessa to prevent these historical Russian regions from falling under the control of NATO.
Ukraine has become increasingly a de facto NATO member. What are the chances that Russia might introduce tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield to achieve its aims?
Russia permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or if its existence is threatened. NATO becoming directly involved in the war is considered an existential threat by Russia, and Russia has warned that NATO would become directly involved by supplying long-range precision missiles. Such missiles will need to be operated by American and British soldiers and navigated by their satellites, thus this represents a NATO attack on Russia. We are very close to a nuclear war, and we are deluding ourselves by suggesting we are merely helping Ukraine defend itself.
Can you briefly discuss the implications for world order if the West defeats Russia? And what would the international system look like if Russia wins the war in Ukraine?
The West would like to defeat Russia to restore a unipolar order. As many military and political leaders in the US argue, once Russia has been defeated then the US can focus its resources on defeating China. It is worth remarking that few Western political leaders have clearly defined what “victory” over the world’s largest nuclear power would look like. Russia considers this war to be an existential threat to its survival, and I am therefore convinced that Russia would launch a nuclear attack long before NATO troops get to march through Crimea.
A Russian victory will leave Ukraine a dysfunctional state with much less territory, while NATO will have lost much of its credibility as this was bet on a victory. The war has intensified a transition to a multipolar world, and this likely increase at a much higher pace if NATO loses the war in Ukraine.
NATO expansion that cancelled inclusive pan-European security agreements with Russia was the main manifestation of America’s hegemonic ambitions after the Cold War, thus the entire world order will be greatly influenced by the outcome of this war. This also explains why NATO will be prepared to attack Russia with long-range precision missiles and risk a nuclear exchange.
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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday, (09/21/2024)
All Things Nuclear
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Three Mile Island nuclear plant will reopen to power Microsoft data centers
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Three Mile Island nuclear plant will reopen to power Microsoft data centers – NPR
NPR
Three Mile Island, the Pennsylvania power plant that was the scene of the worst commercial nuclear accident in American history, will reopen and …
Three Mile Island nuclear plant to reopen, sell power to Microsoft – USA Today
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A dormant nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania may soon be reactivated to help power some of the increasing energy needs of Microsoft.
Microsoft wants Three Mile Island to fuel its AI power needs – The Verge
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Microsoft has signed a deal to bring Three Mile Island back online to power its AI ambitions. The deal will see a nuclear plant powering …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
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After violations, Louisiana’s River Bend nuclear power plant to seek cut in emergency water
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Entergy’s River Bend nuclear power plant near St. Francisville sits next to the Mississippi River for a reason.
Divers of the Ministry of Emergency Situations examine the flooded The Kara Sea nuclear …
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Nuclear War
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Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov assured that Russia does not want nuclear conflict, saying, “Nobody wants a nuclear war.” His comments are in stark …
Former envoy Joseph R. DeTrani: Danger of nuclear war with North Korea greater than ever
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The danger that North Korea will set off a nuclear war in Northeast Asia poses the most serious threat to peace in the region since the end of the …
A Nuclear War in Ukraine Is a Distinct Possibility – Common Dreams
Common Dreams
Russia permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or if its existence is threatened. NATO becoming directly involved in the …
Nuclear War Threats
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A Nuclear War in Ukraine Is a Distinct Possibility – Common Dreams
Common Dreams
Russia permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or if its existence is threatened. NATO becoming directly involved in …
Putin will lose the war against NATO in three days – ФАКТИ.БГ
ФАКТИ.БГ
Bill Browder, like other political and military analysts, says that Kiev should be given this logical right, and that the Kremlin’s nuclear threats …
US Military Policy Is Stoking the Risk of Nuclear War on Korean Peninsula – ScheerPost
ScheerPost
After North Korea’s 2017 nuclear weapons test, Trump responded with bellicose threats to unleash “fire and fury” on the peninsula. However, in …
Yellowstone Caldera
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New research reenvisions Earth’s mantle as a relatively uniform reservoir | ScienceDaily
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