“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
Oct 19, 2024
“The winner of November’s presidential election will confront a challenge with no immediate cure-all: America’s nuclear weapons are aging faster than they can be replaced. Moreover, this dilemma is compounded by the dual shocks of China’s breathtaking nuclear buildup and Russia’s geopolitical reversion into an acute threat—to say nothing of a North Korea that is improving its own arsenal and an Iran that is, arguably, a de facto nuclear power.” ( text from the AEI article by Kyle Balzer attached)
LAW’s NUCLEAR VIEWS, ISSUES & COMMENTS, Saturday, (10/19/2024)
The following article uses “deterrence” as the one and only possibility to avoid future threats of a coming nuclear war, and, true enough, that seems to be the only option that the nuclear-armed countries and all the rest of us, too, have left to hopefully live another day.
Even the New START Treaty between Russia and the U.S., signed in 2010, has already been violated (see the article), so ‘deterrence’ seems to be the only option left, and according to the article the United States has a long and expensive way to go to improve its status in the temporary world of ‘deterrence’, which amounts to creating mutual fear among nuclear nations of each others’ stockpile of nuclear weapons.
As I have mentioned time and time again in this blog, ‘deterrence’ cannot continue indefinitely because of unsustainable financial and mutual ‘trust’ necessities, creating nothing more than a temporary patch to avoid inevitable nuclear war — from which there will be no winner . . . ~llaw
The winner of November’s presidential election will confront a challenge with no immediate cure-all: America’s nuclear weapons are aging faster than they can be replaced. Moreover, this dilemma is compounded by the dual shocks of China’s breathtaking nuclear buildup and Russia’s geopolitical reversion into an acute threat—to say nothing of a North Korea that is improving its own arsenal and an Iran that is, arguably, a de facto nuclear power.
Put simply, the US strategic nuclear posture has very little, if any, slack to offset a growing range of threats before next-generation weapons systems begin replacing older platforms. Immediately upon taking office, then, the next president should consider stop-gap measures to mitigate the long-term structural problems afflicting America’s nuclear program.
All three legs of the nuclear triad are under strain. Land-based Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles are nearly 60 years old—and their scheduled replacement, the Sentinel, has incurred significant cost overruns and might not enter service until the late 2030s. Sea-based Ohio-class submarines are nearly forty years old and will begin to reach the end of their service life in 2027 before the first next-generation Columbia-class boat is delivered. And the air-based leg, featuring B-2 and B-52 strategic bombers, is heavily taxed due to operating costs, force reductions, and the decision to dramatically scale back the nuclear air-launched cruise missile inventory.
Therefore, the US triad desperately needs more capability in the short term to offset geopolitical threats that the aging and delayed program of record was not sized and shaped to address. Fortunately, the next president has two, albeit imperfect, off-the-shelf options that could help mitigate present burdens.
First, the United States could upload more warheads on either the land- or sea-based legs. The 400 operational Minuteman silos, for example, are currently loaded only with single-warhead missiles. If loaded with all available warheads, however, the Minuteman fleet can reportedly carry some 800—if not more. As for the sea-based leg, the US Navy normally operates 12 Ohio-class submarines, armed with 20 Trident D5 ballistic missiles, which carry approximately 960 warheads (four to five warheads per Trident). If fully uploaded with eight warheads per missile, the force expands substantially.
However, this option does not come without political, material, and operational costs. Politically, the US upload capacity is limited by the New START Treaty signed with Russia in 2010. Each signatory is confined to 1,550 strategic warheads spread across their respective nuclear triad until 2026 (the United States already deploys some 1,400 strategic warheads). Given that Russia is currently in violation of New START, however, and in light of Russia’s barbaric war in Ukraine and its unceasing nuclear threats against NATO, the next president has cause to exit the agreement.
Nonetheless, though additional warheads are readily available in the reserve stockpile, this upload option also comes with material costs that cannot be ignored—most notably in straining submarine maintenance schedules. And operationally, loading additional warheads on Trident would impact its range and targeting flexibility.
The second off-the-shelf option entails modifying Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), an existing conventional sea-launched cruise missile, with W80 non-strategic warheads from the reserve stockpile. In the near term, this would return a regional nuclear option—free from New START central limits—to the sea-based fleet, filling a gap that emerged following the retirement of the nuclear-tipped Tomahawk (TLAM-N) in 2013. Since the next-generation nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) won’t arrive until the mid-2030s, this would help address the massive Chinese and Russian theater-range arsenals in the short term.
In the Asia-Pacific, for example, TLAM-N’s retirement left the United States without a forward-deployed nuclear option to offset China’s growing regional capabilities. And in Europe, Russia’s arsenal of some 2,000 theater nuclear weapons dwarfs the hundred or so gravity bombs the United States forward deploys on the Continent.
However, much like the upload option, modifying TLAM comes with its own set of costs. The US Navy would have to pull some missile launchers away from conventional missions. And resources and time would have to be devoted to certifying personnel for the nuclear mission.
Still, the attack submarine fleet would not have to devote large numbers of launchers to nuclear missions: the United States simply needs to convince its adversaries that a regional strike option is on station and ready to respond. Refurbishing the TLAM-N, then, might be more appealing than uploading Minuteman and Trident, given that cruise missiles evade New START restrictions and American adversaries are growing theater nuclear forces.
The above options are not perfect—indeed, far from it. Nonetheless, their costs are relatively modest when placed in a broader perspective: The nuclear arsenal is the backbone of America’s global military posture, which has deterred great-power war since 1945.
As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis once quipped, “America can afford survival.”
Learn more: America’s Enemies Would Rejoice at a U.S. Military Retreat from Europe | The U.S. Is Losing a New Nuclear Arms Race | Nuclear Bipartisanship: An Enduring American Tradition | History Supports Senator’s Plan to Revive the Nuclear Arsenal
Kyle Balzer
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TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Saturday, (10/19/2024)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
Zelensky, the Budapest Memorandum and the Ukrainian Atomic Bomb: 5 Things to Know – Kyiv Post
Kyiv Post
… all have developed and detonated a nuclear device. Advertisement. So how close are we to a Ukrainian nuke? The official answer we already have from …
No Choice but Crisis? The Next President’s Options for North Korea
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
All these things, they’re fundamentally just not in the cards for the … nuclear, because a nuclear-armed South Korea would enhance American security.
Big Tech goes nuclear – Marketplace.org
Marketplace.org
Big Tech goes long on nuclear power, AI slop is all over Spotify, and a … things that matter to you. Also Included in. “Make Me Smart …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
Nuclear Power: A Game-Changer for Data Centers in the AI Era – U.S. Global Investors
U.S. Global Investors
Shares of companies involved in uranium and nuclear, like NuScale Power, Oklo, Cameco and Centrus Energy, have been surging, driven in large part by …
Nuclear Energy Is Making a Comeback. A New Batch of Stocks to Play the Trend. | Barron’s
Barron’s
When they’re not inventing sentient chatbots, tech giants have a new obsession: nuclear power. … The new kind of nuclear plants built by Kairos and X- …
ADVANCE Act keeping NRC ‘very busy,’ official says, highlighting 30+ implementation actions
Utility Dive
January 2025: Modernization of nuclear reactor environmental reviews · April 2025: Licensing considerations for non-electric uses of nuclear energy …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Nuclear power specialists from around the globe learn how to prep for disaster at TEEX
KBTX
18 students from 14 …
Harris Nuclear Plant in New Hill to test emergency sirens – MSN
MSN
On Wednesday, the Harris Nuclear Plant in New Hill will test its sirens. The annual three-minute siren test is scheduled to happen between 10 a.m. …
Tablet distribution guards against unlikely nuclear crisis in Delaware | Bay to Bay News
Delaware State News
… emergencies in Delaware.” Additionally, in case of an emergency … nuclear plant is considered highly unlikely.” If potassium iodide is …
Nuclear War
NEWS
Russia flaunts doomsday weapons to curb Western support for Ukraine – Defense News
Defense News
Putin also declared the revised document envisages possible nuclear weapons use in case of a massive air attack, holding the door open to a potential …
Putin says Russia won’t let Ukraine obtain nuclear weapons | Reuters
Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday Russia would not let Ukraine get nuclear weapons, after Ukraine’s leader said that since Kyiv had …
Ukraine not considering nuclear arms, top official Yermak says – Reuters
Reuters
Ukraine is not considering developing nuclear weapons and recent reports on the topic were driven by an incorrect interpretation of remarks by …
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
ISW analyzes Putin’s latest nuclear threats – RBC-Ukraine
RBC-Ukraine
ISW analyzes Putin’s latest nuclear threats Photo: Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (getty images) … War in Ukraine Putin nuclear weapon Ukraine .
Adding Slack to the US Nuclear Posture | American Enterprise Institute – AEI
American Enterprise Institute
Given that Russia is currently in violation of New START, however, and in light of Russia’s barbaric war in Ukraine and its unceasing nuclear threats …
EU Statement – UN General Assembly 1st Committee: Nuclear Weapons – EEAS
EEAS – European Union
The EU condemns in the strongest possible way Russia’s aggressive actions, irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and threats … nuclear war cannot be won and …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Temporal, spatial, and chemical evolution of Quaternary high-silica rhyolites in the Mineral …
USGS.gov
… caldera and post-caldera eruptions of the Valles Caldera and Yellowstone Caldera volcanic systems. Collectively, these geochemical …
Weak Mag. 2.8 Earthquake – Abai, 51 km Southwest of Ust-Kamenogorsk, East Kazakhstan …
Volcano Discovery
Follow the latest news and update on the volcano-seismic crisis that started on São Jorge Island in the Azores on 19 March 2022! Yellowstone quakes.