NUCLEAR INSANITY & THE LAST DAYS OF HUMAN DEPRAVITY? ~ LLAW
Nov 26, 2024
LLAW’s NUCLEAR NEWS TODAY & THE IMPACT ON OUR FUTURE
As I keep saying every chance I get, the whole world — perhaps excluding the American voters and other influencers who put Trump back in office for a 2nd presidential term — are extremely nervous about Trump’s entire political, military, and economic agenda, but particularly his questionable concepts about ‘all things nuclear’ (including nuclear war) and the extremely sensitive handling of the Russia/Ukraine war related to his political and personal relationship with Putin right out of the gate for starters.
We are now less than two months away from Trump’s inauguration day, and the few days between now and then are very important days because the whole Russia/Ukraine and potential nuclear conflict must be avoided both now and after Trump takes office and we all know that Trump is a loose cannon if nothing else.
So it is, that whenever I run across a responsible media story directed at this world- wide apparent ‘vacuum’ in time, I am inclined to post the story for us all here to read and evaluate before Trump is given a free pass to the possibility of nuclear war . . . ~llaw
Putin’s strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump’s return
Ian Bremmer
Nov 25, 2024
Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about the Russia-Ukraine War. We are seeing further escalation over the course of the last week. The United States and the United Kingdom and France have all given permission after months of foot dragging for the Ukrainians to use their missiles, these missiles provided by the NATO allies, to target military targets inside the Russian Federation.
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they’re now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we’re seeing from Putin is, “I’m showing you what you’re doing is moving towards World War III, and that’s how I’m responding.” Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn’t doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He’s certainly not doing it now that he’s winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he’s getting from other countries. Also, he’s taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, “I want to end this war.” And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He’s instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He’s making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, “I’m the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I’m the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am.” Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin’s made clear, at least thus far, that he’s not going to give up any territory that he has. That he’s not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He’s also said that Ukraine can’t continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil’s going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He’s promised he’s going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they’re not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would’ve been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You’re taking land right now. The Ukrainians don’t have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn’t you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you’re winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn’t say yes.
And that’s an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don’t necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That’s a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump’s staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They’re people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there’s a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn’t likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there’s been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven’t gone very far, but they’ve also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don’t have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It’s either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we’re going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it’s all performative and it’s all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That’s it for me, and I’ll talk to you all real soon.
GZERO Additional Trending Stories:
Global leaders scramble to align with Trump
Russia-Ukraine: Don’t expect full-on invasion, but Putin isn’t bluffing
Ian Bremmer on the 2024 US election ahead
The US is the world’s most dysfunctional major democracy
Why Ukraine invaded Russia
Harris, Trump and the hypocrisy in US politics
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TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Tuesday, (11/26/2024)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
India’s New Nuclear Submarine Base Challenges China’s Naval Ambitions – WSJ
WSJ
… Things with Kim Strassel · Potomac Watch Podcast · Foreign Edition Podcast … Why Tech Elites Want Us All to Have More Kids …
Meet a Nuclear Safety Engineer Whose Job Is to Predict Risks and Avoid Them | GE Vernova News
GE Vernova
… nuclear business, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, for an … “It was always just fascinating to me to think about how it all worked,” he says.
Putin’s strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump’s return – GZERO Media
GZERO Media
They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear … Those are all things that we’re going to watch very …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
The Promise Of Nuclear–Powered National Security Space | Aviation Week Network
Aviation Week
The U.S. needs nuclear propulsion to power spacecraft beyond geostationary orbit for human space exploration and dynamic space operations.
Letters to the Editor: Nuclear power’s promise: Live well now, poison humanity in the future
Los Angeles Times
Pacific Gas and Electric’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the only operating nuclear plant in California, is seen in Avila Beach in 2023. (Brian van der …
Defects in Michigan nuclear plant’s tubes could complicate reopening plans
The Detroit News
… Nuclear Power Plant in west Michigan, according to a federal official. The issue prompted some nuclear safety advocates to question whether the plant …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system risks nuclear disaster: rights experts | UN News
UN News – the United Nations
… nuclear power plants,” the experts emphasised. Tweet URL. Severe damage … Humanitarian organizations mobilized swiftly and provided emergency …
Power Outages: How the Schedules Will Function on November 26 – all the latest news today – 112
112
… emergency power outages have been implemented. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported a decrease in electrical capacity at …
Nuclear War
NEWS
Putin Ally Issues Nuclear War Warning to US – Newsweek
Newsweek
Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev warned of nuclear war if the U.S transfers nuclear weapons to Ukraine: “The consequences are obvious.”
Russia’s Medvedev warns West over discussing nuclear weapons for Ukraine – Reuters
Reuters
Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that if the West supplied nuclear weapons to Ukraine then Moscow could consider …
Safest place on Earth after nuclear war: World War III map shows 8 regions where you can stay safe
The Economic Times
A nuclear war could trigger catastrophic food shortages, leading to the starvation of
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Safest place on Earth after nuclear war: World War III map shows 8 regions where you can stay safe
The Economic Times
This heightened threat comes after Russia revised its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear response. Previously, Russia’s policy …
Biden isn’t escalating the war in Ukraine — he’s doing the right thing
msnbc.com
… war in Ukraine, but it does represent yet another nuclear threat. The … Giving in to these sort of threats shows that nuclear extortion works, …
WW3 nuclear map sparks terror as Putin signs new doctrine – ‘no safe country exists’
Irish Star
Map shows horrifying range of Russia’s nukes as Putin’s allies …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
New research reveals the looming global threat of supervolcanoes
The Brighter Side of News
The Yellowstone Caldera is an infamous “supervolcano” having produced three “supereruptions”. (CREDIT: iStock). Toba Caldera (Indonesia). Size: 100 …
A Massive Supervolcano is Showing Signs of Waking Up, Threatening the Globe
Vision Times
One of the world’s more well known supervolcanoes is located in the United States in Yellowstone National Park, called the Yellowstone Caldera. It …
Supervolcano Is Making Scientists Uneasy With Potential Chaotic Outcome – TheTravel
TheTravel
Gianmarco Buono and his team took a closer look at The Phlegraean Fields, a large caldera volcano west of Naples, Italy. … Yellowstone, Long Valley in …