LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #825, Friday, (12/06/2024)

NUCLEAR INSANITY & THE LAST DAYS OF HUMAN DEPRAVITY? ~ LLAW

Lloyd A. Williams-Pendergraft

Dec 06, 2024

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GT-250 Launches From Vandenberg

LLAW’s NUCLEAR NEWS STORY TODAY & THE IMPACT ON OUR FUTURE

This article will help explain my negative statements in yesterday’s posts about the risks involved in the concepts of Artificial Intelligence (AI), referring to its development by humans for humans, as “the blind leading the blind”. The threat of AI applies in all things nuclear — especially relevant to nuclear power plants and nuclear war management. This well-written article does not ignore the nuclear reactor power operational threats that exist in much the same manner as with nuclear weapons.

It is well known that AI could eventually put the human being itself along with our input and common-sense influence aside and create its own superhuman like intellectual and physical functions, including robotics that are far superior to humanity in both physical and mental capacity that could reduce our species to a minor life-level of living organisms. Or even worse — exterminate us . . . ~llaw

War on the Rocks 1st Anniversary Note - War on the Rocks

Beyond Human-in-the-Loop: Managing AI Risks in Nuclear Command-and-Control

Alice Saltini and Yanliang Pan

December 6, 2024

Commentary

GT-250 Launches From Vandenberg

On Nov. 16, U.S. and Chinese leaders met on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, jointly affirming “the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.” This declaration echoes a joint document submitted by France, the United Kingdom, and the United States during the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review process in 2022.

With countries increasingly prioritizing military applications of AI, integrating AI into nuclear weapons systems is becoming a distinct possibility, especially as nuclear arsenals undergo modernization. While some nuclear-weapon states have emphasized the importance of maintaining human oversight and control over decisions to employ nuclear weapons, it is too early to take a victory lap. Avoiding a “Skynet” scenario, where AI takes independent control of nuclear weapons, does little to reduce the real risks of unintended nuclear launches.

AI holds the promise of enhancing the performance and capabilities of nuclear command, control, and communications systems, which form the backbone of nuclear decision-making. However, if integrated with haste and without adequate risk assessment, safeguards, and redundancies, such integration could dramatically heighten the risk of unintended nuclear escalation. Escalation risks can arise from altered decision-making dynamics, accelerated processing speeds that outpace human supervision, or insidious errors that can propagate undetected through complex systems — regardless of whether humans remain in the decision-making loop.

To prevent nuclear calamity and ensure the responsible use of AI in nuclear command-and-control, states should move beyond mere prescriptive commitments to human oversight. Reducing the risk of unintended nuclear escalation requires a governance framework that establishes a quantitative threshold for the maximum acceptable probability of an accidental nuclear launch as a uniform safety benchmark. Valuable governance lessons can be drawn from civil nuclear safety regulation, in particular what regulators refer to as the “risk-informed” and “performance-based” safety governance approach. Applying these principles to nuclear command-and-control systems requires moving beyond the simplistic human-in-the-loop prescription to focus on assessing the system’s safety performance. The objective is to assess the quantitative likelihood of an accidental nuclear launch with a particular configuration of AI and non-AI subsystems and to ensure that that likelihood remains securely below an acceptable threshold.

AI’s Impact on Nuclear Risks

Assessing how AI can impact the nuclear domain and contribute to unintended escalation is no easy task. The current limited understanding of the behavior of AI models, their rapid and unpredictable advancement, and the complexity and opacity of nuclear systems and subsystems that feed into the decision-making process make this discussion largely speculative. Despite this, it is still possible to foresee how states might consider implementing AI as part of broader efforts to modernize aging nuclear arsenals based on existing nuclear postures and states’ desire to gain a strategic advantage.

For instance, Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, has pointed to AI’s potential to automate data collection, streamline processing, and accelerate data sharing with allies. Similarly, official statements and documents from other nuclear powers often frame AI as a tool to assist human decision-makers to make faster and more informed decisions, beyond the nuclear domain.

In principle, AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data from diverse sources is well-suited to identify threats quickly, analyze sensor data, automate the identification of objects, and evaluate potential courses of action. However, AI introduces a number of significant risks due to the inherent limitations of today’s advanced AI models.

First, AI is unreliable. Today’s AI can confidently generate false information that can lead to flawed predictions and recommendations, ultimately skewing decision-making. This phenomenon is termed “hallucinations.” Examples include a large language model generating incorrect facts about historical events, or a vision model “seeing” objects that are not there. Second, the opacity of AI systems — known as the “black box” problem — makes it difficult to fully understand how an AI system reaches its conclusions. This lack of transparency undermines trust and reduces the utility of AI in high-stakes environments like nuclear decision-making, where transparency is crucial. Third, AI systems are susceptible to cyberattacks, creating opportunities for adversaries to compromise the integrity of nuclear command-and-control systems. Finally, current AI models struggle to align outputs with human goals and values, potentially deviating from strategic objectives. The high-pressure environment of nuclear decision-making, combined with limited response time, exacerbates these dangers, as decisions may rely on inaccurate, opaque, compromised, or misaligned information.

Despite the declarations of some nuclear-armed states to maintain human control in nuclear decision-making, not all of them have explicitly committed to this, leaving room for grave consequences due to misunderstandings or misinterpretations of countries’ intent. But even if all nuclear states made similar declarations, there is no simple way to verify these commitments. Moreover, human–machine interaction itself can introduce severe risks. Operators may place excessive trust in an AI system, relying on its outputs without sufficient scrutiny, or they may distrust it entirely, hesitating to act when speed is critical. Both situations can skew decision-making processes even when AI systems function as intended. All of these limitations persist even when states maintain human oversight.

Further compounding these risks is the uncertainty surrounding AI’s future advancements. While current limitations may eventually be resolved, new risks could also emerge that remain unpredictable at this stage.

The Precedent of Civil Nuclear Safety Regulation

While the risks of AI-integrated command-and-control may seem novel, the management of nuclear risks with severe consequences for public health and safety is not a new challenge for governments. Indeed, the principles of risk-informed, performance-based, and technology-neutral regulation — drawn from the governance of civil nuclear safety — may usefully apply to the nexus of AI and nuclear command-and-control.

In the United States, the process of “risk-informing” the regulation of nuclear safety began with the 1975 Reactor Safety Study. This quantified the risks of accidents and radioactive releases associated with nuclear power generation using probabilistic-risk-assessment techniques such as event trees and fault trees. Simply put, these techniques map out the various sequences of cascading events, including system failures, that could ultimately lead to an accident, allowing the probabilities of various consequences to be quantified.

Prior to the quantification of risks, regulations were based primarily on prescriptive and deterministic requirements. For instance, regulators prescribed multiple redundant safety features to prevent certain foreseen accidents without explicitly considering the likelihood of any given accident sequence. After the 1979 Three Mile Island accident, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expanded its research into the more extensive application of probabilistic-risk-assessment techniques. This was recommended by investigations after the accident, culminating in a 1995 policy statement and subsequent plans to “risk-inform” the commission’s safety regulation.

Meanwhile, industry pushed for the more extensive use of performance-based regulation giving the licensee greater flexibility in determining how to accomplish a defined safety goal. Rather than specifying what safety features must be included in the reactor design, a performance-based regulatory requirement would simply establish a quantifiable safety outcome. In its public communication, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission illustrates its performance-based approach using a skydiving example. In this case, the regulator would institute a “performance requirement” that “the parachute must open above an altitude of 5,000 feet” without specifying whether that outcome should be ensured with a rip-cord or an automatic activation device.

Guided by the qualitative safety goal that nuclear power plant operation should not contribute significantly to individual and societal risks, by 1986 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had defined a measurable benchmark that “the overall mean frequency of a large release of radioactive materials to the environment from a reactor accident should be less than 1 in 1,000,000 per year of reactor operation.” That benchmark has since been refined into more operationalizable standards.

In recent years, as diverse and novel reactor concepts emerged, it became clear that many safety features prescribed for traditional reactors were no longer applicable. Regulators have therefore prioritized the development of technology-neutral regulations allowing greater flexibility in how reactor designs could satisfy safety performance benchmarks. In this context, the probabilistic-risk-assessment techniques and performance-based regulatory approach developed over the decades have proven critical for ensuring the adaptation of safety governance to technological advancement.

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(Please note that the Saturday and Sunday NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS — unedited —are added to Monday news posts in order to maintain continuity of nuclear news as well as for research for the overall information provided in “LLAW;s All Things Nuclear”.)

There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:

  1. All Things Nuclear
  2. Nuclear Power
  3. Nuclear Power Emergencies
  4. Nuclear War
  5. Nuclear War Threats
  6. Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are no Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in today’s Post.)
  7. IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)

Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.

A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.

TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, Friday, (12/06/2024)

All Things Nuclear

NEWS

World on brink of third nuclear age, UK military chief warns | CNN

CNN

The world is at the brink of a third nuclear age, the head of the United Kingdom’s armed forces has warned.

Vladimir Putin’s Nuclear Bluff – WSJ

WSJ

But Russian political analyst Maksim Katz observed recently: “Everything we know about Vladimir Putin tells us that such a decision is unlikely.” “For …

Risk of Iran Building Nuclear Weapons Grows, U.S. Intelligence Says – WSJ

WSJ

… about Tehran’s nuclear work. The intelligence report, released late … All Things with Kim Strassel | opinion. Opinion: Biden Buyer’s Remorse.

Nuclear Power

NEWS

Understanding Nuclear Energy with C4E’s ‘Nuclear 101’ Conversation – SBU News

SBU News – Stony Brook University

The Nuclear 101 presentation addressed the resurgence of nuclear power plants to address the growing need for power including the dramatic need for …

IAEA Looks to Expand Successful Global Nuclear Power Capacity Building Projects

International Atomic Energy Agency

Today, over 30 ‘newcomer’ countries are considering introducing nuclear power to mitigate climate change while strengthening energy security and …

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Companies Are Going Nuclear: Here Are 3 Energy Stocks You Should Know

Yahoo Finance

With the growing demand for carbon-free nuclear power, Constellation Energy is one solid stock to own to capitalize on these trends. 2. Cameco. Cameco …

Nuclear Power Emergencies

NEWS

Tennessee Valley Authority to share emergency training results at public meeting

Local 3 News

TVA along with other federal, state, and local agencies will conduct the training at Sequoyah Nuclear Plant on Wednesday, December 11.

AEP holds community open house on nuclear reactor project – WDBJ

WDBJ

… power homes and …

Texas Winter Could See More Rolling Blackouts | Dallas Observer

Dallas Observer

… power outages on renewable energy sources, claiming wind … energy emergencies that accompany them, support for expanding nuclear energy grows.

Nuclear War

NEWS

‘At the dawn of a third nuclear age,’ senior U.K. commander warns – CTV News

CTV News

Admiral Tony Radakin, chief of the defence staff, said Britain needs to recognize the seriousness of the threats it faces, even if there is only a …

Biden Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance Leaves Nuclear Decisions to Trump

Federation of American Scientists

The public report summarizes a classified employment guidance reportedly issued by President Joseph Biden in April and was submitted to Congress as …

Beyond Human-in-the-Loop: Managing AI Risks in Nuclear Command-and-Control

War on the Rocks

… nuclear war, regardless of whether humans are in the proverbial loop. They should also take the lead in researching probabilistic-risk-assessment …

Nuclear War Threats

NEWS

We are now living in ‘third nuclear age’ of expanding threats and arsenals, U.K. military chief warns

Yahoo

Adm. Tony Radakin says Russia’s nuclear threats and China’s expanding arsenal tossed the world into a new era. … nuclear weapons after the Cold War, …

Putin’s chilling map showing the 14 US cities Russia could nuke amid World War 3 fears

Irish Star

Vladimir Putin warned the West about the dangers of nuclear war in his State of the Union address … Despite only vague threats of nuclear war from the …

Senior UK Commander Warns of ‘Third Nuclear Age’ – USNews.com

USNews.com

… threats in check … While the Cold War saw two superpowers held at bay by nuclear deterrence and the past ..

IAEA Weekly News

6 December 2024

Read the top news and updates published on IAEA.org this week.

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail_165x110/public/iaeaflag11140x640.jpg?itok=L8JFAU_6

5 December 2024

Update 263 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

Ukraine’s three operating NPPs have largely restored their electricity production after sharply reducing output last week as a precautionary step due to renewed attacks on the country’s increasingly fragile energy grid, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA said today. Read more →

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail_165x110/public/rafaelgrossiinuzbekinstan2024-12-05at063114.jpeg?itok=QChl5jU8

5 December 2024

IAEA Building “Strong Cooperation” with Uzbekistan in Nuclear Energy and Health

The IAEA Director General has been in Uzbekistan this week as part of ongoing support to the country’s plans to harness nuclear science for its development, including through SMRs and a new cancer hospital. Read more →

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail_165x110/public/dsc0393.jpg?itok=HEB1Fzeb

4 December 2024

The Nuclear Fuel Producer in Romania is Committed to Safety, IAEA Review Says

A recent IAEA assessment mission to a nuclear fuel plant in Romania, concluded that the country had implemented nuclear safety measures in line with the IAEA safety standards. Read more →

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail_165x110/public/zwirawa-1140x640.jpg?itok=6PRtHapO

3 December 2024

IAEA Profile: Harnessing Technology to Build Connections and Protect Data

“I was fascinated by the idea that someone on one side of the world could communicate with someone on the other side because of technology. It really spoke to me,” says Rutendo Zvirawa, reflecting on what inspired her to pursue a career in information technology. Read more →

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail_165x110/public/hospital-de-clinicas-1140x640.jpg?itok=FbGV789I

2 December 2024

Bolivia to Srengthen Cancer Control Systems Based on Review Mission Recommendations

Bolivia has taken a critical step towards strengthening its cancer control system by hosting an imPACT Review mission led by the IAEA, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Read more →

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