End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity” ~llaw
Jan 14, 2025
LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS TODAY with THE RISKS & CONSEQUENCES OF TOMORROW
During this week before Donald J. Trump’s inauguration day on Monday, I will post the most important article relative to Trump and “All Things Nuclear”, positive or negative, that I find in the everyday TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS section of this blog. I doubt there will be too many positive stories . . . ~llaw
Trump 2.0: Unilateralism and the Future of Arms Control
- Trump 2.0: Unilateralism and the Future of Arms Control
As the world prepares for Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the implications for global arms control loom large. New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire in February 2026. Russian president Vladimir Putin suspended participation in the treaty a year ago due to tensions resulting from the Ukraine war, which leaves the agreement or any like it in question.
This important agreement, which places limits on strategic nuclear arsenals and provides verification mechanisms, may face an uncertain future under Trump’s leadership. During his first term, President Trump demonstrated a dislike of arms control, a trend that could seriously undermine multilateral efforts in maintaining global strategic stability.
Trump’s Arms Control Record
During Trump’s first term, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark agreement with Russia that had eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons. While the US cited Russian violations of the treaty as the reason for American withdrawal, the move is concerning for European security and removes a crucial safeguard against nuclear escalation.
Trump also expressed skepticism toward extending New START, instead demanding the inclusion of China in future agreements. While China is increasing its nuclear capabilities, its nuclear arsenal remains smaller than the American and Russian arsenals. Trump’s insistence on China’s inclusion delayed negotiations, nearly causing the treaty to lapse even before the Biden administration secured its five-year extension.
These actions reflect a broader pattern of undermining multilateral arms control frameworks. Trump’s transactional approach prioritizes American advantage over long-term global stability, raising concerns about the future of arms control agreements under his leadership. Given his resounding victory in the recent election, the American people support his “America first” agenda, which will embolden Trump’s efforts to pursue his approach further.
The Risks of Unilateralism
Arms control agreements like New START, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and the now-defunct INF Treaty historically relied on multilateral cooperation to reduce the risks of nuclear conflict. These agreements were/are built on principles of mutual trust, verification, and a shared commitment to minimizing the threat of nuclear escalation. Russia’s suspension of New START and increasing US-China and US-North Korea tensions further empower Trump’s unilateralism. Taken together, the already fragile architecture of global arms control is likely to fracture.
If Trump allows New START to expire or pursues a renegotiation on his terms, the consequences could be severe, with both openly increasing their strategic nuclear forces.
A Fragmented Global Landscape
The dissolution of New START would not only impact Russo-American relations but also have negative implications for global security. European NATO member states are, however, more concerned about the credibility of NATO’s nuclear deterrent. The bigger threat is Trump’s withdrawal from NATO, which could spur NATO member-states to expand their own arsenals in nuclear-sharing arrangements, while others might consider developing independent nuclear capabilities. This fragmentation could destabilize the transatlantic alliance and further weaken the global arms control regime.
Beyond Europe, arms control agreements are importantly observed by all states. In the Middle East, where tensions are already high, countries like Iran countries might accelerate its nuclear program. Similarly, North Korea may interpret American instability in arms control as an opportunity to modernize its arsenal.
Emerging Technologies and Strategic Instability
The erosion of multilateralism in arms control is compounded by the rise of emerging technologies such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and cyber warfare. These advancements could transform the nature of modern conflict, introducing new challenges that traditional arms control frameworks are ill-equipped to address.
Under Trump’s leadership, the US is likely to prioritize investments in these technologies, potentially at the expense of traditional arms control efforts. For example, Trump’s first term emphasized missile defense systems, which Russia perceives as destabilizing. In response, Moscow invested heavily in countermeasures like hypersonic weapons. The potential weaponization of space and advancements in cyber capabilities further complicates the strategic landscape, creating new risks of miscalculation and escalation.
Lessons from History and the Importance of Multilateralism in Arms Control
The history of arms control offers valuable lessons about the importance of cooperation. Agreements like the INF Treaty and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty were not merely symbolic but played critical roles in reducing nuclear risks during the Cold War. These treaties demonstrated that even adversaries could find common ground in the pursuit of mutual stability.
To mitigate risks, the international community must reaffirm its commitment to multilateral arms control. Organizations like the United Nations and NATO have a critical role to play in facilitating dialogue and promoting transparency. Only through a renewed commitment to multilateralism can the world hope to navigate the complex challenges of the 21st century and maintain global stability in the face of evolving threats.
Syed Ali Abbas is a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad. Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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(Please note that the Sunday and Saturday NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS are also added below by category, following Monday’s news posts in order to maintain continuity of nuclear news as well as for research for the overall information provided in “LLAW;s All Things Nuclear”.)
There are 7 categories, with the latest addition, (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
TODAY’s NUCLEAR WORLD’s NEWS, TUESDAY, (01/14/2025)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
Kendall offers vision for the Air Force, Space Force of 2050
Vandenberg Space Force Base – Space Force
“It’s a different world when China, Russia and the US all have a thousand-plus nuclear weapons in the field. It gets more dangerous as other …
What’s next for nuclear power | MIT Technology Review
MIT Technology Review
As electricity demand rises around the world for everything from electric vehicles to data centers, there’s renewed interest in building new nuclear …
Inside the Push to Restart Three Mile Island’s Aging Nuclear Reactor – WSJ
WSJ
… Things with Kim Strassel · Potomac Watch Podcast · Foreign Edition Podcast … View All. 2:27. Strong Winds to Batter L.A. and Aggravate the Deadly …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
What’s next for nuclear power | MIT Technology Review
MIT Technology Review
looking up the staircase on the cooling tower of Satsop Nuclear Power Plant in Elma, Getty Images. MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series looks …
Inside the $1.6B Plan to Restart Three Mile Island | WSJ – YouTube
YouTube
clean energy will be used to power AI servers and the electricity it generates will be sold to one company: Microsoft. Reviving nuclear power plants …
Inside the Push to Restart Three Mile Island’s Aging Nuclear Reactor – WSJ
WSJ
… nuclear power plant. Photo Illustration: Alexandra Larkin. … nuclear power plant. Photo Illustration: Alexandra Larkin. Read More …
Inside the Push to Restart Three Mile Island’s Aging Nuclear Reactor – WSJ – WSJ
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Moscow-Washington nuclear hotline has averted war in the past – but cool … – The Conversation
The Conversation
Perhaps the US president-elect’s customary threats and demands will force warring parties to talk peace. But that style of diplomacy coule at the ..
The U.S. Navy Doesn’t Have Enough Nuclear Attack Submarines – 19FortyFive
19FortyFive
The U.S. Navy aims for at least 66 attack submarines to counter threats from China, Russia, and other hotspots, but the fleet of fast-attack boats .
Trump 2.0: Unilateralism and the Future of Arms Control – Global Security Review
Global Security Review
… nuclear risks during the Cold War. These treaties demonstrated that … threats. Syed Ali Abbas is a Research Officer at the Center fo
Nuclear War
NEWS
Moscow-Washington nuclear hotline has averted war in the past – but cool … – The Conversation
The Conversation
The ‘Molink’ hotline has averted a serious crisis on several occasions. But would it still be as effective, given the personalities of the two …
Blurring conventional–nuclear boundaries: Nordic developments, global implications | SIPRI
SIPRI
Plans to develop and deploy advanced weapon systems in the Nordic region are meant to strengthen NATO’s deterrence, but they risk having …
Iran, European countries to continue talks over Tehran’s nuclear programme, report says | Reuters
Reuters
Talks held in Geneva between Iran, Britain, France and Germany will see dialogue continue regarding Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme, …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
An Electromagnetic View of How Magma is Stored beneath Yellowstone
National Parks Traveler
Yellowstone caldera is one of the largest volcanic systems in the world. Past volcanic activity at the caldera has ranged from the output of lava …
New research methods reveal Yellowstone not ‘ready to blow’ anytime soon | wyomingnews.com
Wyoming Tribune Eagle
Tags · Yellowstone Caldera · Caldera · Geophysics · Geology · Applied And Interdisciplinary Physics · Physical Sciences · Earth Sciences · Seismology …
Yellowstone ‘not ready to blow’ anytime soon, research says – Casper Star-Tribune
Casper Star-Tribune
For decades, researchers in and around Yellowstone National Park have used seismic waves to map the hot mush below the Earth’s surface.