“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity.” ~llaw
Oct 25, 2025
Today’s Image . . .
Inside the control room of the Global Operations Center of the US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska as depicted in A House of Dynamite by Kathryn Bigelow. (Credits: Eros Hoagland/Netflix © 2025.)
LLAW’s All Things Nuclear Concerns: What’s New and Important in the Nuclear World and What to do About It!
The, ‘A House of Dynamite’ movie didn’t really capture how the toll from a single nuclear bomb can easily destroy all of humanity beyond the movie’s critical but honest sorrowful vision of our governmental/political/military levels of human life and then leaves to our own imaginations about how one nuclear bomb dropped on Chicago can easily create a global nuclear war. But it did clearly point out how drastically ill-prepared we, as a country, are able to defend ourselves. “Trying to hit a bullet with a bullet” (like Trump’s “Golden Dome” for instance) is not gonna happen, yet Trump, et al, is spending billions upon billions to do try to do just that . . .
There is also the dangerous factor that we attempted to retaliate against an incoming nuclear bomb that was anonymous to us — pure speculation what nation was to blame. This is more dangerous than the bomb itself because there is a difference in the extended repercussions of, say, it was Russia rather than North Korea, although potentially it might not, in reality, matter . . . But it does demonstrate how one bomb could, by counter attacks followed by more of our own inspiring other countries who will instantly become involved in annihilating virtually all life on planet Earth — and not just human life. (for more, read the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ review below). ~llaw
Today’s Feature Story from LLAW’s NUCLEAR WORLD TODAY is from category. . .
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
What we should be talking about after watching Bigelow’s ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear thriller
By Mark Goodman | October 25, 2025
Kathryn Bigelow’s new film, A House of Dynamite, presents a compelling, Rashomon-style dissection of a moment of crisis from three different perspectives. Other nuclear wonks have praised the film for exposing the dangers of nuclear weapons. While the film is a work of cinematic art in its own right, Bigelow’s main objective is to make the audience reflect on those dangers and discuss how to deal with them.
Surprise attack, realistic response. The film gets many important facts right. Chiefly, it illustrates the dilemmas and paradoxes of nuclear deterrence. Deterrence is supposed to prevent war, but it depends on making the threat of nuclear war credible enough that it deters actions that could lead to war. In normal times, when tensions are low, deterrence can contribute to stability; in times of crisis, it can prompt decision makers to act with greater caution. But crises can also create a “use it or lose it” pressure to launch nuclear weapons while it’s still possible. The decision time can be painfully short—19 minutes in this movie. As one character puts it in the film, the choice is between suicide—launching a retaliatory strike knowing the response will be devastating—and surrender. This is why President Barack Obama’s Nuclear Posture Review in 2010 put a premium on giving the president more time to decide.
The movie also shows the machinery of government as it faces a crisis. It presents the drama first at the operational level: soldiers and watch officers going from routine to “What the heck?” in the blink of an eye. A single long-range missile is heading to Chicago from northeast Asia—probably from North Korea, but it could be Russia or China. The second iteration brings in a sprawling array of experts and policy advisors as they seek to understand what is happening, the choices, and the consequences.
The third iteration shows decision makers—the defense secretary and the president—suddenly facing an urgent dilemma with no good choices. In the movie, the scenario jumps to “DEFCON 2,” which is the second-highest state of military readiness for which armed forces are on high alert and could deploy and engage in combat within six hours. And when the interception fails, the scenario moves to “DEFCON 1,” the maximum readiness posture when an attack is imminent or already underway. I’ve never been that close to a crisis—DECON 2 was ordered only once during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and DEFCON 1 is without precedent—but the human and institutional dynamics at each level seemed plausible. It’s hard to avoid wondering how the change in leadership and the loss of expertise within the government would affect decision-making today.
But for all it gets right, the film also muddles some key points.
The biggest one is the misfit between the scenario—a single missile—and the need to respond before that missile hits Chicago. Why the rush? While the United States maintains the option to launch under attack, this is not the only option or even the primary one. The use-it-or-lose-it logic only makes sense if the incoming attack threatens the US ability to retaliate. In the film, the head of Strategic Command offers a rationale for an immediate counter-launch: Russia or China might attack the United States at a moment of weakness. I found this completely unpersuasive. Time is a resource not to be squandered. Decision makers can afford to wait to see if the warhead explodes, take time to try to confirm who was responsible, and communicate authoritatively with the key players before ordering a counter-attack with virtually guaranteed unacceptable damage to the enemy.
Illusion of ‘damage limitation.’ The film brings to mind current debates over whether the United States needs more nuclear weapons to simultaneously deter Russia and China, particularly as China’s stockpile is growing by roughly a hundred warheads a year. The conventional wisdom seems to be that the United States does, based on arcane calculations of what deterrence requires, which in turn are based on policy assumptions about what nuclear weapons are for.
It turns out that what drives the numbers is not what one might think of as the primary role of nuclear weapons—to deter a nuclear attack against the United States. Rather, the numbers are based on the secondary role of trying to limit damage to the United States if deterrence fails. Damage limitation makes sense in principle, but in practice is virtually impossible, and trying to limit damage can do more harm than good. According to the logic of damage limitation, the United States would launch a preemptive attack to destroy the other side’s nuclear weapons and limit their ability to destroy the United States. This notion of preemption is what creates the use-it-or-lose-it pressure, and that pressure gets worse when the United States designs its nuclear forces to emphasize the ability to strike first over the ability to ride out the attack and then retaliate.
Damage limitation in nuclear war is fundamentally a mirage.
If even a small number of nuclear weapons survive a first strike, they could still wreak massive devastation. A nuclear power cannot escape its own vulnerability. There’s a saying that the first casualty of war is the war plan, and nuclear war is no exception. Any use of nuclear weapons would fundamentally change the nature of a conflict. Everything, including the scenarios and dilemmas confronting decision makers, would be transformed in unpredictable ways. Catastrophe might not be inevitable, but it would loom at every turn. It is this incalculable danger—not the calculations of the planners—that is the unavoidable essence of nuclear deterrence.
The Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Missile defense myth. A House of Dynamite also gets the futility of missile defense right, but it does not explain why. Sure, the limited defense system failed in the film, but one could argue we could do better. Wouldn’t President Donald Trump’s proposed Golden Dome defend the United States against a nuclear attack? As counterintuitive as it sounds, the answer is no. Worse, it would be futile and dangerous.
Golden Dome is futile because it’s always going to be easier and cheaper for the attacker to overwhelm, spoof, or circumvent any missile defense system. Take Russia’s war against Ukraine for example: Russian missiles can relatively easily hit Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, while Russian ground forces are at a standstill. The attacker’s advantage is magnified for intercontinental-range missiles, which are faster and harder to hit, and any failure to intercept a nuclear warhead would be disastrous.
And missile defense is dangerous because, if paired with a nuclear force structure designed to preempt, it can magnify the temptation to use that force to strike first. Defending against a first strike is futile, but defending against a weaker second strike might not be. This could make the destabilizing use-it-or-lose-it pressure even worse. The temptation of either side to launch a disarming first strike could be magnified by the belief that its missile defense could blunt the other side’s retaliatory strike. This temptation depends on believing in the defense’s effectiveness, even if that belief is unjustified.
I spent most of my career in government trying to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and avoid nuclear war. After the Cold War, the world seemed to lose interest in nuclear weapons. Arms control and risk reduction became niche topics for a narrow group of insiders and experts. Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite is a welcome and useful reminder that the dangers of nuclear weapons not only never went away, but they have been growing in recent years. Hopefully, this renewed attention will stimulate a rethinking of the United States’ nuclear posture so that the danger of possessing and deploying nuclear weapons does not outweigh the threats they are meant to deter.
TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD NEWS, Saturday, (10/25/2025)
About Today’s Nuclear News and How it Works:
There are 7 categories, including a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcano and caldera activity around the world that also play an important role in the survival of human and other life.
The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). If there was no news from a Category today, the Category will not appear. The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
- All Things Nuclear
- Nuclear Power
- Nuclear Power Emergencies
- Nuclear War Threats
- Nuclear War
- Yellowstone Caldera
- IAEA News (Friday’s only)
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
Today’s Nuclear World News
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE Ending Explained: Kathryn Bigelow Analyzes Nuclear War Thriller
Netflix
While A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE is a story about political actors, it’s not only a political story — it’s a thriller where every small action has global …
Texas company eyes former Vermont Yankee site for battery energy storage system – WSHU
WSHU
All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:30 PM Marketplace. 0:00. 0:00. All Things … nuclear waste that is being stored near the former nuclear power plant.
Bunker Talk: Let’s Talk About All The Things We Did And Didn’t Cover This Week
The War Zone
377th Test and Evaluation Group missile operators conduct mission operations at Vandenberg Space Force Base,. Staff Sgt. Michael Richmond. The TWZ …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
The Low-Hanging Fruit of Nuclear Power – Barron’s
Barron’s
17). Buying Calpine is huge. Constellation also owns all of the nuclear power plants in Illinois, as well as those of Philadelphia Electric Power and …
Trump Administration Providing Weapons Grade Plutonium to Sam Altman – Futurism
Futurism
To meet demand, the Trump administration has embraced nuclear energy, which currently depends almost entirely on foreign imports of uranium into the …
The Low-Hanging Fruit of Nuclear Power – Barron’s
Barron’s
Buying Calpine is huge. Constellation also owns all of the nuclear power plants in Illinois, as well as those of Philadelphia Electric Power and …
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Radiological emergency exercise successful at Byron nuclear plant | MyStateline
MyStateline
The Byron nuclear plant conducted a radiological emergency preparedness exercise involving nearly 200 participants, while officials.
Emergency preparedness targets met at Byron nuclear plant exercise – YouTube
YouTube
The Byron nuclear plant conducted a radiological emergency preparedness exercise earlier this week, involving nearly 200 participants from Ogle …
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
What we should be talking about after watching Bigelow’s ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear thriller
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Deterrence is supposed to prevent war, but it depends on making the threat of nuclear war credible enough that it deters actions that could lead to …
Chicago faces a major nuclear threat in Kathryn Bigelow’s latest film “A House of Dynamite”
Chicago Sun-Times
As for the likelihood of a present-day attack, Bell said, “even though the threat has ebbed and flowed over the years, we’re really in the worst …
F-35 Proving Itself On The Front Line And Evolving For Future Threats – The War Zone
The War Zone
F-35 Proving Itself On The Front Line And Evolving For Future Threats. Branded Content: Lockheed Martin is looking at “next-gen” F-35 capabilities to …
Nuclear War
NEWS
“A House of Dynamite” is a reminder of the folly of our nuclear era
msnbc.com
That nuclear war doesn’t seem zeitgeisty these days might make it seem … That would allow it to strike back even if it were hit with a nuclear attack …
Exclusive look at NATO’s nuclear war games – NBC News
NBC News
NBC News got an exclusive look at NATO jets carrying out simulated nuclear strikes carrying U.S. bombs. NBC News’ Raf Sanchez reports.
What we should be talking about after watching Bigelow’s ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear thriller
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Deterrence is supposed to prevent war, but it depends on making the threat of nuclear war credible enough that it deters actions that could lead to …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Yellowstone Volcanic Activity on the Move, Geologists Warn – MSN
MSN
The Yellowstone Caldera—the name refers to the large crater left behind after an eruption—is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth. It is …