“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
Feb 12, 2026
LLAW’s Nuclear World News’ Image & Lead Story Today . . .
Nuclear War Threats (and why they must be taken seriously ~llaw)
NEWS
Credible Threats
Kevin Lewis
February 11, 2026
- Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems
Joshua Schwartz & Michael Horowitz
International Organization, forthcoming - We develop a theoretical argument that nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear … nuclear war and thus is extremely dangerous.
Abstract:
Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion, and, if so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? While prominent scholars like Thomas Schelling argue that nuclear brinkmanship, or the manipulation of nuclear risk, can effectively coerce adversaries, others contend nuclear weapons are not effective tools of coercion, especially when designed to achieve offensive and revisionist objectives. Simultaneously, there is broad debate about the incorporation of automation via artificial intelligence into military systems, especially nuclear command and control. We develop a theoretical argument that nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear launch systems are more credible compared to those implemented via non-automated means. By reducing human control over nuclear use, leaders can more effectively tie their hands and thus signal resolve, even if doing so increases the risk of nuclear war and thus is extremely dangerous. Preregistered survey experiments on an elite sample of United Kingdom Members of Parliament and two public samples of UK citizens provide support for these expectations, showing that in a crisis scenario involving a Russian invasion of Estonia, automated nuclear threats can increase credibility and willingness to back down. From a policy perspective, this paper highlights the dangers of countries adopting automated nuclear systems for malign purposes, and contributes to the literatures on coercive bargaining, weapons of mass destruction, and emerging technology.
Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Link Between Nuclear Weapons and Indirect Conflict
Kyle Atwell & David Logan
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
How do nuclear weapons affect interstate conflict? Empirical studies on this question have returned mixed results. We argue that these results are due to overlooking indirect conflicts, a distinct and prominent form of limited conflict. Expanding current datasets to account for both conflict intensity and directness provides new insights about interstate conflict. We investigate the relationship between nuclear weapons and conflict through a large-n analysis that includes a new indicator for indirect conflict. We find that state dyads which possess nuclear weapons are significantly more likely to engage in indirect conflict. The results suggest the importance of including measures of indirect conflict in future scholarship and the need for policymakers to prepare for increased instances of indirect conflict between major powers possessing nuclear weapons.
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Rachel Myrick & William Marble
British Journal of Political Science, January 2026
Abstract:
Do perceived foreign policy failures shape assessments of a country’s leadership in the eyes of international observers? We explore the consequences of foreign policy failures using global reactions to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some argue that a poorly executed withdrawal heightened concerns about America’s soft power and image abroad. Others believe that the negative consequences of the withdrawal were exaggerated. To adjudicate between these claims, we compile public opinion surveys across 24 countries containing over 17,000 respondents. Analyzing perceptions of US leadership before and after the fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021, we find that the Afghanistan withdrawal had a substantive negative impact on global perceptions of US leadership. However, we observe no corresponding evidence that the attractiveness of great powers is ‘zero-sum’: decreases in favorability towards the United States were not paralleled by increases in the perceived attractiveness of alternatives to US leadership like Russia and China.
The Ford Foundation and the development of international relations in China
Shuhong Huo, Inderjeet Parmar & Ferran Perez Mena
Review of International Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Current explanations of Sino-American relations are dominated by realist and liberal understandings of world politics, neglecting crucial transnational actors that complexify Sino-American relations. In contrast and drawing from internationally informed Gramscian hegemony theory, and on extensive archival work, we offer an alternative complex multidimensional transnational account. By researching the Ford Foundation’s activities in China and the United States, specifically its contribution to the development of the international relations (IR) discipline in China, we break new ground and show that Ford was key in profoundly shaping Sino-American relations, especially by developing transnational knowledge networks. These transnational elite networks simultaneously integrated China into the LIO and had unintended consequences, particularly in encouraging Chinese counter-hegemonic dynamics that challenge the LIO from within. Our approach indicates a richer complexity of Sino-US relations than extant theories, suggesting that the future trajectories of this strategic relationship are uncertain and do not fall neatly into an inevitable war or peaceful interdependence binary.
Authoritarian Reforms and External Legitimacy
Calvert Jones
International Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
A growing body of work suggests that authoritarian regimes can enhance their external legitimacy by undertaking reform — from democratic or “pseudodemocratic” institutional changes at the domestic level to participation in international efforts to mitigate climate change. Yet the shared theoretical logic underlying this work has received surprisingly little empirical attention. This research contributes by offering findings from an iterative series of original survey experiments conducted over nationally representative samples of US citizens. Study 1 tested the foundational hypothesis — that reforms build external legitimacy — by adopting a simple independent groups design. Studies 2 and 3 subjected that hypothesis to harder tests via conjoint designs, and also evaluated extension hypotheses about when and in what sense “legitimacy” is gained. Across studies, the results consistently demonstrate that reforms (of a variety of types) do generate external legitimacy, offering both positive benefits as well as shielding benefits in keeping with theoretical arguments. The results also provide support for several new and previously undocumented findings concerning the role of reform type, type of legitimacy-derived gain, and the conditions under which such gains are more or less likely to accrue.
The Soviet Legacy and the Global South’s Reactions to Russian Invasion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly
Qingjie Zeng
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted multiple resolutions condemning the aggression and calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces. While some Global South countries supported these measures, many refrained from taking a critical stance toward Moscow, despite clear violations of international law. What accounts for this divided response? Departing from existing explanations that focus on contemporary geopolitical or economic interests, this paper traces Global South countries’ positions to the Soviet Union’s extensive Cold War-era interventions in the developing world. We argue that states that received greater volumes of Soviet aid are significantly more likely to align with Russia today, driven by both material dependencies and ideational legacies. Empirically, we demonstrate that the observed association withstands extensive robustness tests and is substantiated by evidence for both material and ideational mechanisms. These findings underscore the importance of a historical-institutional approach to understanding international alignment in the Global South and call for moving beyond the Liberal International Order framework when analyzing global responses to contemporary conflicts.
Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration
Alexander Furnas et al.
NBER Working Paper, February 2026
Abstract:
This study provides evidence that geopolitical considerations systematically shape funding evaluations of international collaboration proposals. We examine this dynamic in the consequential context of U.S.-China collaboration. Across two large-scale randomized experiments with U.S. policymakers and U.S.-based scientists, we find substantial and consistent penalties for proposals involving China-based collaborators. Policymakers express much greater unconditional support for proposals with Germany-based collaborators than for otherwise identical proposals with China-based collaborators (68% vs. 28%). Crucially, this penalty is not confined to policymakers: scientists themselves exhibit a sizeable 18 percentage-point gap (48% vs. 30%), despite professional expectations of merit-based evaluation. Much of the difference reflects a shift from unconditional to conditional approval rather than outright rejection. These penalties are remarkably consistent across scientific fields and respondent characteristics, with little evidence of heterogeneity, indicating that they reflect geopolitical rather than domain-specific concerns. Overall, the findings suggest that geopolitics influences gatekeeping judgments in government funding, with broad implications for peer review, scientific norms, and the future of international collaboration in an era of intensifying geopolitical competition.
Explaining Command Style
Charles Miller
Security Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Command style is crucial to military effectiveness. In modern warfare, a key component of command style is decentralization. The military effectiveness literature generally agrees that decentralization is a desirable trait. Why then would a military not adopt decentralization? I argue that the degree of centralization is primarily a function of prewar state decisions to build up trained manpower, and wartime losses. The larger the gap between the state’s trained manpower at the beginning of the war and its ultimate land force needs, the more likely it is that the army will be compelled to embark on rapid mobilization. Since decentralization depends on sufficient trained manpower, this will imply more centralization. However early war differences will fade as losses mount. I illustrate this theory with respect to two combatants in World War II: Germany and the United Kingdom.
Credible Threats | National Affairs
National Affairs
LLAW’s Thoughts, Concerns, and Fears about Today’s Nuclear World and Beyond . . .
From the first Abstract about the seriousness of not only nuclear war and related nuclear energy, those of us who don’t take such everyday nuclear threats as anything more than irrelevant newsprint, perhaps we should reconsider . . . ~llaw
Abstract:
Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion, and, if so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? While prominent scholars like Thomas Schelling argue that nuclear brinkmanship, or the manipulation of nuclear risk, can effectively coerce adversaries, others contend nuclear weapons are not effective tools of coercion, especially when designed to achieve offensive and revisionist objectives. Simultaneously, there is broad debate about the incorporation of automation via artificial intelligence into military systems, especially nuclear command and control. We develop a theoretical argument that nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear launch systems are more credible compared to those implemented via non-automated means. By reducing human control over nuclear use, leaders can more effectively tie their hands and thus signal resolve, even if doing so increases the risk of nuclear war and thus is extremely dangerous. Preregistered survey experiments on an elite sample of United Kingdom Members of Parliament and two public samples of UK citizens provide support for these expectations, showing that in a crisis scenario involving a Russian invasion of Estonia, automated nuclear threats can increase credibility and willingness to back down. From a policy perspective, this paper highlights the dangers of countries adopting automated nuclear systems for malign purposes, and contributes to the literatures on coercive bargaining, weapons of mass destruction, and emerging technology. ~Charles Miller
LLAW’s Nuclear World News Today . . .
About Today’s Nuclear News, Files, Categories, and How it Works . . .
There are 7 categories, including a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcano and caldera activity around the world that also play an important role in the survival of human and other life.
The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). If there was no news from a Category today, the Category will not appear. The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
- All Things Nuclear
- Nuclear Power
- Nuclear Power Emergencies
- Nuclear War Threats
- Nuclear War
- Yellowstone Caldera
- IAEA News (Friday’s only)
A Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
LLAW’s Nuclear World News, Thursday, 02/12/2026
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
U.S. accuses China of secret nuclear testing | Here & Now – WBUR
WBUR
All Things Considered · Here & Now · Morning Edition · On Point · On-Air … The U.S. has accused China of planning nuclear tests and conducting at …
The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here’s what that means
Boise State Public Radio
The U.S. has accused China of planning nuclear tests and conducting at least one secret test 2020 … All Things Considered · Reader’s Corner · Our …
The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here’s what that means
WBHM 90.3
Your browser does not support the audio element. Marketplace6:00 PM–6:30 PM. Up Next: All Things Considered … While the major nuclear powers have not …
Nuclear Power
NEWS
Long-term operation of nuclear power plants beyond 60 years
Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)
New NEA report provides an overview of the technical foundations, operational experience and emerging challenges associated with extending nuclear …
Nuclear Energy Revival “Crucial” for the Environment – NucNet
NucNet
An early revival in the use of nuclear power appears to be “crucially important” because of the threat of global climate change from excessive …
Coordinated Research Projects – Project Listing – CRP | International Atomic Energy Agency – Project Listing – CRP | International Atomic Energy Agency
US plans 500kW lunar nuclear reactor in bold 2030 space power push
Interesting Engineering
NASA has advanced plans for a 500-kilowatt (kW) lunar nuclear reactor to power astronauts, Moon bases and deep space missions by 2030.
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
NPPs are operating stably, over 90% of capacity has already been restored after the latest … – УНН
УНН
УНН Society ✎ Ukrainian nuclear power plants are operating within the norms of nuclear and radiation safety … emergency shutdowns are …
Overnight Russian missile attack hits Kyiv – TVP World
TVP World
… energy systems, depriving people of power … plants and substations linked to nuclear power, causing emergency outages across the country.
More EV models can power your home in emergencies during blackouts
Los Angeles Times
… energy resilience.” Wallbox, in turn, envisions a world in which millions of connected EVs take the place of a nuclear power plant. Back in rural …
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Credible Threats | National Affairs
National Affairs
We develop a theoretical argument that nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear … nuclear war and thus is extremely dangerous.
Why the U.S. Hasn’t Yet Struck Iran – The Atlantic
The Atlantic
… NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” or risk the same type of swift and … Usually, threats of war come after talks fail, not before they have even started.
Turkey warns expanding Iran talks to missiles risks another war
iranintl.com
Turkey warns expanding Iran talks to missiles ri
Nuclear War
NEWS
After weeks of tension, Trump is still talking tough on Iran. Here’s what could happen next – CNBC
CNBC
… nuclear deal collapsed in 2018. While the U.S. has vowed to attack Iran if it resumes its nuclear and missile programs, it is unclear whether …
Why the U.S. Hasn’t Yet Struck Iran – The Atlantic
The Atlantic
… NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” or risk the same type of swift and violent response … Usually, threats of war come after talks fail, not before they have even …
Nuclear Sites Fortified, Missiles Deployed: Iran’s Final Signal Before Launching War On US Army?
YouTube
Iran is ramping up fortifications at its key nuclear facilities as tensions with the United States simmer. Fresh satellite imagery reveals tunnel …
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Yellowstone’s supervolcano is creating a 19-mile bulge – Popular Science
Popular Science
Yellowstone’s supervolcano is creating a 19-mile bulge … But scientists aren’t that worried. … Castle Geyser erupts with hot water and steam with …
Yellowstone wolves may not have transformed the national park after all | ScienceDaily
ScienceDaily
Yellowstone’s legendary wolf-driven “mega-cascade” may be far less dramatic than once believed. · Yellowstone Caldera · Hurricane Katrina · Trophic level …
Yellowstone’s Supervolcano Causes 19-Mile Land Bulge – Ekhbary News Agency
Ekhbary News Agency
The area experiencing this deformation is located on the northern rim of the Yellowstone Caldera, a vast volcanic basin in northwestern Wyoming.
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